Stock |
Ticker |
Date Published |
Market Price on Publication Date |
Recommendation |
Gresham House |
GHE LN |
21/08/2023 |
1057.5 |
The deal spread appears to be driven by the potential downside and the large number of regulatory approvals required. |
Capri Holdings |
CPRI US |
18/08/2023 |
51.94 |
We believe there is a high likelihood of an extended antitrust review. However, one might speculate on a swift HSR approval as the deal spread appears to be wide |
ESI Group |
ESI FP |
15/08/2023 |
148 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 15, 2023 |
Triton International |
TRTN US |
15/08/2023 |
83.15 |
Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas August 15, 2023 |
Kahoot |
KAHOT NO |
15/08/2023 |
34.17 |
While the one-day premium appears to be low, we expect the acceptance condition / delisting threshold to be met given the premium over the unaffected share price. |
Sovos Brands |
SOVO US |
14/08/2023 |
22.55 |
The deal spread appears to be tight, given the likelihood of a second request. |
Dice Therapeutics |
DICE US |
11/08/2023 |
47.55 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 11, 2023 |
Pacific Current |
PAC AU |
11/08/2023 |
10.77 |
We believe that the upside will driven by GQG’s proposal as it will have to post an appealing offer for the current co-operating bidders who can block the deal. |
New Relic |
NEWR US |
10/08/2023 |
83.89 |
We see no major antitrust risk, but an extended review cannot be ruled out. |
Amedisys |
AMED US |
04/08/2023 |
91.86 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 4, 2023 |
Chinook Therapeutics |
KDNY US |
04/08/2023 |
40.28 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 4, 2023 |
Reata Pharmaceuticals |
RETA US |
04/08/2023 |
167.16 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide despite the substantial downside. |
Dechra Pharmaceuticals |
DPH LN |
03/08/2023 |
3748 |
We don’t expect extended regulatory reviews and expect the deal to close late this year |
Heritage-Crystal Clean |
HCCI US |
02/08/2023 |
46.38 |
While HCCI is currently trading through the bid price, we attach low probability |
Costa Group Holdings |
CGC AU |
28/07/2023 |
3.31 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 28, 2023 |
Chinook Therapeutics |
KDNY US |
28/07/2023 |
39.08 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 28, 2023 |
Denbury |
DEN US |
25/07/2023 |
86.53 |
We believe the current deal spread is too tight considering the risks around the transaction. |
TransAlta Renewables |
RNW CN |
24/07/2023 |
13.42 |
The key question in our view is whether RNW shareholders will feel compensated by the deal premium for the significant dividend dilution of their shares. |
Ordina |
ORDI NA |
21/07/2023 |
5.71 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 21, 2023 |
Opdenergy Holdings |
OPDE SM |
21/07/2023 |
5.73 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 21, 2023 |
JSR |
4185 JP |
14/07/2023 |
4080 |
The deal spread appears to be explained by fears of a hostile Chinese view of the offer. |
Quotient Technology |
QOUT US |
13/07/2023 |
3.85 |
While the companies are competitors, regulatory risk is moderate in our view. Based on that, we would go long QUOT into the expiry of the HSR waiting period. |
Costa Group Holdings |
CGC AU |
12/07/2023 |
3.28 |
We see high likelihood of a firm deal as the board indicated its willingness to recommend a transaction at the offered price and the bidder is familiar with CGC as it owned of the company before its 2015 IPO. |
United Malt Group |
UMG AU |
10/07/2023 |
4.79 |
The deal spread appears to be driven by current fears of regulatory issues. |
American Equity Investment |
AEL US |
06/07/2023 |
52.7 |
The key risk is the timing of the insurance regulatory approvals. Given the long timeline, the current deal spread is unattractive. |
Amedisys |
AMED US |
05/07/2023 |
91.35 |
We see some upside to the lengthy deal timeline if asset divestitures do not require upfront buyers and given the FTC know-how based on recent precedents. |
ESI Group |
ESI FP |
04/07/2023 |
148 |
The mandatory offer is expected to commence in 4Q2023. |
Syneos Health |
SYNH US |
30/06/2023 |
42.14 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023 |
Iveric Bio |
ISEE US |
30/06/2023 |
39.34 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023 |
Dice Therapeutics |
DICE US |
30/06/2023 |
46.46 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023 |
Covestro |
1COV GR |
30/06/2023 |
47.47 |
While ADNOC might not return with an improved bid, Covestro could attract takeover interest from other parties. |
Uponor |
UPONOR FH |
29/06/2023 |
28.62 |
While we don’t expect major regulatory issues, the deal spread appears to be too tight. |
Dice Therapeutics |
DICE US |
28/06/2023 |
46.7 |
The short timeline and the limited deal risk make us believe that the deal spread is wide. |
NexTier Oilfield Solutions |
NEX US |
26/06/2023 |
8.4 |
Overall, we believe regulators will sign-off the deal, but a second request cannot be ruled out. |
SoftwareONE |
SWON SW |
21/06/2023 |
17.69 |
Based on industry peer multiples and our LBO model we believe that there would be room for an entry of a counter bidder at a higher offer price if Bain fails to make an increased bid. |
Stratasys |
SSYS US |
20/06/2023 |
15.47 |
At the current stage, we see 90% probability to a DM/SSYS deal close and a 10% probability to a successful NNDM partial tender offer. DDD is not in the mix in our view with its current proposal |
Opdenergy Holdings |
OPDE SM |
16/06/2023 |
5.67 |
Deal risk is limited. We believe the current deal spread is unattractive given the lengthy timeline. |
Chinook Therapeutics |
KDNY US |
16/06/2023 |
37.63 |
We believe that there is a decent chance of a second request. Due to the mitigating factors (approved treatments, large number of competing pipeline assets) however, one might consider going long KDNY into the expiry of the HSR waiting period betting on a swifter approval. |
Telenet Group |
TNET BB |
09/06/2023 |
20.64 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 9, 2023 |
Syneos Health |
SYNH US |
09/06/2023 |
41.66 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 9, 2023 |
VectivBio Holding |
VECT US |
07/06/2023 |
16.6 |
One might consider going long VECT into the tender offer period as deal risks seem limited. However, IRWD might also attract third party interest. |
PDC Energy |
PDCE US |
06/06/2023 |
71.36 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight given the potentially lengthy US review. |
Uponor |
UPONOR FH |
06/06/2023 |
27.44 |
We believe that there might be a higher offer from Aliaxis or third parties for Uponor. We see upside to the high-twenties. |
Dechra Pharma |
DPH LN |
02/06/2023 |
3632 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023 |
Heska Corp |
HSKA US |
02/06/2023 |
119.84 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023 |
Bellus Health |
BLU CN |
02/06/2023 |
19.65 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023 |
Horizon Therapeutics |
HZNP US |
31/05/2023 |
99.88 |
Despite the long court process, the deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus we continue to recommend a position long HZNP. |
Neogames |
NGMS US |
30/05/2023 |
27.25 |
The deal is expected to close in 2024 |
Heska Corp |
HSKA US |
26/05/2023 |
115.55 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 26, 2023 |
Syneos Health |
SYNH US |
19/05/2023 |
41.52 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide despite the limited deal risk. |
Allkem |
AKE AU |
19/05/2023 |
25.51 |
N/A |
Magellan Midstream Partners |
MMP US |
19/05/2023 |
62.77 |
The deal spread is tight considering the tax implications occurring from the transaction. |
Amedisys |
AMED US |
15/05/2023 |
75.95 |
We see a high probability of a deal break. We would be long OPCH without a hedge on the target side. |
Rothschild & Co |
ROTH FP |
12/05/2023 |
47.35 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023 |
Canaccord Genuity |
CF CN |
12/05/2023 |
9.42 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023 |
Majorel |
MAJ NA |
12/05/2023 |
28.95 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023 |
Triton International |
TRTN US |
12/05/2023 |
82.83 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023 |
Iveric Bio |
ISEE US |
12/05/2023 |
37.6 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023 |
Arconic |
ARNC US |
12/05/2023 |
29.06 |
We expect regulatory approvals to be granted and that the deal timeline will be driven by the SAMR review. |
Blackmores |
BKL AU |
12/05/2023 |
94.5 |
The deal spread appears to be tight, especially considering the special dividend payable before deal close. |
Heska Corp |
HSKA US |
12/05/2023 |
117 |
The deal spread is tight considering the antitrust risk, in our view. One might speculate a short HSKA on an HSR second request. |
Software AG |
SOWG GR |
08/05/2023 |
33 |
Bain appears to face an uphill battle to trump Silver Lake’s offer or team up with its rival. |
Bellus Health |
BLU CN |
05/05/2023 |
19.37 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 5, 2023 |
Teck Resources |
TECK/B CN |
05/05/2023 |
57.99 |
We assign low probability to a firm deal at the current stage given Teck’s and Canada’s opposition. |
Network International |
NETW LN |
05/05/2023 |
382 |
We assign a high probability (~70%) of a firm offer and some upside optionality (20% probability of a 450p offer) given the competitive bidding situation. Despite of the low probability (less than 10%) of a no deal situation, the significant downside makes a NETW long position unattractive. |
Iveric Bio |
ISEE US |
04/05/2023 |
38.05 |
We don’t see serious antitrust issues, however we note that pipeline-related events are not carved out of MAE and the deal might not close before the August 19 PDUFA date. |
Bellus Health |
BLU CN |
02/05/2023 |
14.51 |
N/A |
Triton International |
TRTN US |
02/05/2023 |
82 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. We note that the BIPC share price is around the lower end of the collar, making hedging the long position costly. |
Dechra Pharma |
DPH LN |
28/04/2023 |
3730 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 28, 2023 |
Activison Blizzard |
ATVI US |
28/04/2023 |
77.71 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 28, 2023 |
Majorel |
MAJ NA |
28/04/2023 |
29.25 |
We expect the deal to close in October 2023. The deal spread appears to be attractive as we don’t expect serious regulatory concerns. |
Dechra Pharmaceuticals |
DPH LN |
25/04/2023 |
3746 |
We believe that there is a fairly good chance for a firm deal to be announced. A position long into the firm deal announcement appears to offer attractive risk-reward. |
Prometheus Biosciences |
RXDX |
24/04/2023 |
194.46 |
We don’t expect antitrust issues given the limited overlap between the companies. |
Telenet Group |
TNET BB |
21/04/2023 |
21.04 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023 |
Rothschild & Co |
ROTH FP |
21/04/2023 |
46.7 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023 |
Ordina |
ORDI NA |
21/04/2023 |
5.58 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023 |
Diversey |
DSEY US |
21/04/2023 |
8.16 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023 |
Canaccord Genuity |
CF CN |
21/04/2023 |
10.67 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023 |
Life Storage |
LSI US |
19/04/2023 |
136.4 |
We don’t see PSA coming back with an improved offer. The deal spread reflects the limited deal risk. |
Liontown |
LTR AU |
14/04/2023 |
2.73 |
The valuation offered appears to be attractive compared to precedents. |
Stratasys |
SSYS US |
11/04/2023 |
15.47 |
The deal spread appears to be wide with limited downside. However, we believe that the SSYS poison pill will successfully defend the target against NNDM’s unsolicited approach and NNDM is limited to improve its offer further. |
VMWare |
VMW US |
06/04/2023 |
121.9 |
We would not take a position in the deal spread due to the extended reviews in several jurisdictions and the uncertainty around the Chinese process. We see little chance that all issues of major regulatory bodies (foreclosure/interoperability, innovation, bundling) could be solved by behavioural remedies, especially considering that such remedies are out of favour in the US and UK. Structural remedies might trigger MAE and the final extended outside date might be too close in case of an FTC lawsuit. |
Canaccord Genuity |
CF CN |
06/04/2023 |
10.7 |
The bidders need to increase their bid to gain board recommendation, in our view. However, they might still reach 50%+1 with their current offer. |
Healius |
HLS AU |
03/04/2023 |
3.16 |
The current status of the approach is highly uncertain. There are multiple obstacles that ACL has to overcome in order to complete a transaction. It further has to be noted that a potential counterbid from private equity or a foreign strategic investor would not raise similar antitrust issues. |
Shaw Communications |
SJR/B CN |
31/03/2023 |
40.45 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 31, 2023 |
Telenet Group |
TNET BB |
30/03/2023 |
20.88 |
The spread to the proposed price appears to be somewhat wide however the downside is significant. |
Ordina |
ORDI NA |
30/03/2023 |
5.97 |
Deal risk is limited. Considering the longer timeline, the deal spread appears to be too tight. |
Diversey |
DSEY US |
27/03/2023 |
8.03 |
The deal spread appears to be attractive. However, the timeline is lengthy and multiple regulatory approvals will be required. |
GK Software |
GKS GR |
24/03/2023 |
189.6 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 24, 2023 |
Va-Q-Tec |
VST GR |
23/03/2023 |
23.4 |
Considering the long timeline and the risk/reward of a positive antitrust decision, the deal spread appears to be tight. We note the substantial downside (~50%). |
Seagen |
SGEN US |
22/03/2023 |
199.91 |
We don’t see the deal going through without structural remedies due to overlaps in several fields of oncology. |
Credit Suisse |
CSGN SW |
22/03/2023 |
0.8464 |
CSGN is trading above terms with effectively no upside optionality for shareholders. We recommend a short on the deal spread. We note that setting up positions might be costly. |
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings |
AAWW US |
17/03/2023 |
102.48 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 17, 2023 |
Black Knight |
BKI US |
17/03/2023 |
55.4 |
We see limited options for the parties to tackle all antirust issues. |
InvoCare |
IVC AU |
16/03/2023 |
11.92 |
Based on InvoCare’s leading market share, the strength of the core business, historical valuation and precedent / peer multiples we believe that the Board might push for an increased bid. |
Rothschild & Co |
ROTH FP |
14/03/2023 |
46.95 |
Considering the lengthy timeline, the current spread is tight. We assign low probability to a price bump. |
Distell |
DGH SJ |
10/03/2023 |
17973 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023 |
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings |
AAWW US |
10/03/2023 |
99.93 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023 |
GK Software |
GKS GR |
10/03/2023 |
186 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023 |
Uni-Select |
UNS CN |
10/03/2023 |
46.77 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight, given the lengthy deal review. |
GK Software |
GKS GR |
09/03/2023 |
186.8 |
We don’t expect extended antitrust or FDI review and see deal close in June 2023. |
Tegna |
TGNA US |
03/03/2023 |
17.04 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 3, 2023 |
TravelCenters of America |
TA US |
03/03/2023 |
84.57 |
We believe that an extended review is unlikely and the mid-2023 /3Q deal close guidance is realistic. |
Newcrest Mining |
NCM AU |
01/03/2023 |
23.38 |
NCM is currently trading below the rejected offer. We would expect at least one improved offer from Newmont. |
1Life Healthcare |
ONEM US |
24/02/2023 |
16.47 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 27, 2023 |
Cardiovascular Systems |
CSII US |
24/02/2023 |
19.71 |
We see a limited probability of an HSR second request. However, nowadays healthcare faces higher regulatory attention in the US. Hence, we would conclude that the current deal spread is tight. |
Kape Technologies |
KAPE LN |
22/02/2023 |
293 |
While we don’t expect the Board to support the offer at the current valuation an increased offer appears to be unlikely. Unikmind would be close to the 70% minimum acceptance threshold with the support of ExpressVPN founders, and with their support they most likely have the majority required at the EGM (75% of votes cast) to delist KAPE. Unikmind might even succeed with its current shareholding of 54.8%. |
Oak Street Health |
OSH US |
17/02/2023 |
35.38 |
Given the lengthy deal review and other pending deals, the spread appears to be fair. The spread will be driven by the outcome of pending deals in the industry. |
Magnet Forensics |
MAGT CN |
17/02/2023 |
44.25 |
MAGT is currently trading at the bid price. One could speculate on a bump, as Thoma Bravo might need to lift its bid in case target shareholder opposition further mounts |
NuVasive |
NUVA US |
15/02/2023 |
44.4 |
We would not rule out a second request and a longer than expected deal timeline. |
Meltwater |
MWTR NO |
08/02/2023 |
17.81 |
We expect the offer to close in May 2023. |
Evoqua Water Technologies |
AQUA US |
08/02/2023 |
50.25 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight given the possible delay in case of an HSR second request. |
IAA Inc |
IAA US |
02/02/2023 |
42.41 |
The key risk is the bidder shareholder vote. While we see a higher chance that the deal will receive the requisite shareholder approvals than not, independent proxy advisors’ view might be crucial. |
Atlas Corp |
ATCO US |
02/02/2023 |
14.82 |
Based on the deal premium, our standalone value estimate, peer and precedent multiples, industry headwinds and the fact that no other shareholders joined opposing holders we believe that it is more likely that the deal will be approved at the AGM. |
Horizon Therapeutics |
HZNP US |
27/01/2023 |
110.63 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest Januar 27, 2023 |
Rovio |
ROVIO FH |
26/01/2023 |
7.16 |
Any deal would require the support of the controlling shareholder. There are no ongoing talks and the Rovio announcement sounds rather dismissive. |
Horizon Therapeutics |
HZNP US |
26/01/2023 |
112.13 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus we recommend a position long HZNP. We note the substantial downside. |
ForgeRock |
FORG US |
24/01/2023 |
19.99 |
Overall, we believe regulators are more likely to approve the merger than not. Microsoft’s unquestionable market presence might cool down antitrust concerns. |
Caverion |
CAV1V FH |
20/01/2023 |
7.97 |
We believe that Bain has to increase its offer to retain support of the Caverion Board. |
National Instruments |
NATI US |
20/01/2023 |
53.87 |
Due to NATI’s strong takeover defenses, EMR can’t force a deal without Board consent. NATI might drag the strategic review and based on the CEO’s bullish comments, they might elect to remain a standalone company. We see limited upside to the current offer based on our ROIC and LBO calculations. |
Tegna |
TGNA US |
18/01/2023 |
20.01 |
Added to best ideas list in Best Ideas Januar 18, 2023 |
Duck Creek Technologies |
DCT US |
13/01/2023 |
19 |
Given the valuation and the limited number of potential counterbidders, we see low probability for a counterbid. However, the short timeline and the limited deal risk might offer a favourable entry point for an improved offer. |
CinCor Pharma |
CINC US |
13/01/2023 |
29.01 |
We believe the CVR could worth ~$2-2.3 per share. Based on that the current spread is unattractive. |
Euronav |
EURN BB |
13/01/2023 |
13.44 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 13, 2023 |
Albireo |
ALBO US |
11/01/2023 |
43.85 |
The CVR does not appear to be cheap at $1.85 considering the potentially long timeline until payout. |
Sierra Wireless |
SW CN |
02/01/2023 |
41.62 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 06, 2023 |
Nitro Software |
NTO AU |
06/01/2023 |
2.21 |
Nitro is trading slightly above the A$2.15 per share recommended bid. While we believe Potentia needs to raise its offer to win, it might not be able to outbid KKR’s Alludo. |
Aerojet Rocketdyne |
AJRD US |
22/12/2022 |
55.6 |
We see much less incentive for LHX to foreclose any of AJRD’s customers, misuse missile related sensitive information or to decrease R&D investment in missile technology. |
Maxar Technologies |
MAXR US |
22/12/2022 |
51.78 |
We believe regulatory risk is limited. We recommend a position long MAXR going into the go-shop period as a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid. |
Chr Hansen |
CHR DC |
20/12/2022 |
501 |
The deal spread appears to be tight considering the long timeline and the regulatory risk. |
Va-Q-tec |
VQT GR |
19/12/2022 |
25.4 |
We would be cautious to take a position long in VQT as there are key geographical and product overlap which might lead to antitrust scrutiny. |
Apollo Endosurgery |
APEN US |
16/12/2022 |
9.91 |
The deal spread is tight; however, one might speculate on a counterbid as APEN’s attractive portfolio might attract other suitors. We don’t expect extended antitrust review. |
Shaw Communications |
SJR/B CN |
13/12/2022 |
36.515 |
We believe that Shaw and Rogers have the upper hand in the Tribunal process. |
Horizon Therapeutics |
HZNP US |
9/12/2022 |
97.22 |
We see some upside potential, as we expect that Horizon will receive an offer before the January 10 deadline, potentially around $110-120. |
Univar Solutions |
UNVR US |
9/12/2022 |
33.4 |
We believe Brenntag could offer up to ~$40.50 for Univar, however it would need to issue a large number of new shares which would make the deal unattractive to the company despite the potential synergies. |
Devro |
DVO LN |
8/12/2022 |
308.5 |
The merging parties anticipate a Q3 2023 deal close. This might indicate a high probability of an indepth antitrust review. Based on that, the deal spread appears to be somewhat tight. |
Home Capital Group |
HCG CB |
2/12/2022 |
42.61 |
We believe the deal will receive the required regulatory approvals, however timing seems uncertain. |
Origin Energy |
ORG AU |
1/12/2022 |
7.97 |
The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be narrow, as regulatory concerns justify a wide spread, however we expect that after a lengthy review the ACCC approval will be granted. |
Imago BioSciences |
IMGO US |
30/11/2022 |
35.7 |
We believe the deal spread is not attractive. The substantial downside and limited upside make us refrain from recommending a long IMGO. |
Activision Blizzard |
ATVI US |
22/11/2022 |
82.15 |
Regulatory update |
Vantage Towers |
VTWR GR |
22/11/2022 |
32.7 |
The domination agreement offers some upside (5-15%) which incentivizes minorities not to tender into the offer. This increases the probability of a domination agreement post offer. |
IAA Inc |
IAA US |
17/11/2022 |
39.95 |
The main risks are the shareholder votes. Other IAA shareholders might oppose and put pressure on RBA and IAA boards to renegotiate |
Atlantia |
ATL IM |
16/11/2022 |
22.93 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas November 16, 2022 |
HomeServe |
HSV LN |
16/11/2022 |
1191 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas November 16, 2022 |
Store Capital |
STOR US |
16/11/2022 |
31.7 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the limited deal risk. We recommend a position long STOR. |
Altra Industrial Motion |
AIMC US |
15/11/2022 |
58.43 |
We expect the deal to receive a second request in the US as the companies have several horizontal overlaps and are competing with each other in some niche markets. |
Tegna |
TGNA US |
11/11/2022 |
18.99 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2022 |
Euronav |
EURN BB |
11/11/2022 |
18.08 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2022 |
Euronav |
EURN BB |
10/11/2022 |
12.8 |
Given the high probability of a successful tender offer and limited deal risk, we believe the 2.5% deal spread is somewhat wide. Therefore, one may consider a position long deal spread with a view on a possibly shorter timeline. |
ReadyTech |
RDY AU |
08/11/2022 |
4 |
We believe, PEP will come back with a sweetened offer, thus we would recommend a position long in RDY, especially as the spread is more than 10%. However, the downside could be around AUD3-3.1 |
Abiomed |
ABMD US |
07/11/2022 |
373.99 |
The CVR does not look attractive given the long expected timeline to trigger milestone payments. |
Distell |
DGH SJ |
04/11/2022 |
17305 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 4, 2022 |
Tower Semiconductor |
TSEM US |
04/11/2022 |
48.21 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 4, 2022 |
Sierra Wireless |
SW CN |
28/10/2022 |
40.33 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 28, 2022 |
SeaSpine Holdings |
SPNE US |
27/10/2022 |
6.21 |
We see some risk regarding the shareholder approvals, however we are still optimistic that both shareholder groups |
Albertsons |
ACI US |
27/10/2022 |
20.36 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. However, political opposition, timeline and final consideration related uncertainties make us refrain from recommending a position long deal spread. |
Sierra Wireless |
SW CN |
26/10/2022 |
40.54 |
We believe regulators will approve the deal without any remedies, as there are no horizontal overlaps and vertical issues are limited. Based on that, we would go long SWIR. |
Interstrust |
INTER NA |
21/10/2022 |
19.94 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 21, 2022 |
Swedish Match |
SWMA SS |
21/10/2022 |
111.5 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 21, 2022 |
Aveva Group |
AVV LN |
20/10/2022 |
3147 |
Update on shareholder opposition - We believe target shareholder approval could be guaranteed with an offer of around GBp3300. We see Schneider sweetening its bid given that it is highly likely that publicly opposing shareholders have a blocking |
ForgeRock |
FORG US |
19/10/2022 |
22.54 |
Overall, we believe regulators will sign-off the deal given the fragmented nature of the IAM submarkets. We note the substantial downside. |
Atlantia |
ATL IM |
14/10/2022 |
22.39 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 14, 2022 |
Pushpay |
PPH NZ |
14/10/2022 |
1.15 |
A firm deal announcement could be made around NZD1.4, but we see it hard for BGH to win PPH Board’s support as it could be hard to negotiate a satisfactory offer for both parties. |
Myovant |
MYOV US |
14/10/2022 |
25.1 |
Limited downside and high probability of an improved offer makes us recommend a long MYOV. |
Poshmark |
POSH US |
11/10/2022 |
17.66 |
Deal risk is limited; thus the spread is tight. We expect the deal to close in mid-Q1 2023 |
1Life Healthcare |
ONEM US |
07/10/2022 |
16.98 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 7, 2022 |
HomeServe |
HSV LN |
07/10/2022 |
1185 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 7, 2022 |
DXC Technology |
DXC US |
07/10/2022 |
26.89 |
Assuming a 5% probability to an offer at $45 and 25% at $35 we would take a position long DXC below ~$27. |
Capricorn Energy |
CNE LN |
07/10/2022 |
245.4 |
The main risks are the shareholder votes, thus we would retain from a position at this point. |
Pendragon |
PDG LN |
04/10/2022 |
27.2 |
We believe that it would be difficult for the Board not to support Hedin’s 29p offer after the Board and other Top 5 shareholders were willing to engage with a third party in August at the same price. The Board might use the time until the PUSU deadline to try and find a better deal before granting its support to Hedin’s bid. |
BTRS Holdings |
BTRS US |
04/10/2022 |
9.27 |
Deal risk is limited. We expect the deal to close in Q1 2023. |
Pendal |
PDL AU |
30/09/2022 |
4.5 |
The market seems to be pessimistic about the deal. We would expect a deal close by the end of mid/late Q1. |
Cano Health |
CANO US |
29/09/2022 |
8.84 |
We assign a high probability to a firm deal announcement. While activist shareholder and an analyst assume a $14 possible takeout price, with a conservative $12 takeout a riskreward still favors a position long CANO. |
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings |
AAWW US |
28/09/2022 |
95.88 |
The key risk is around debt financing, thus the deal spread is somewhat wide. We would refrain from a position long AAWW at this stage. |
Tegna |
TGNA US |
23/09/2022 |
21.55 |
Update - We continue to consider the deal spread to be somewhat wide. |
Avalara |
AVLR US |
23/09/2022 |
92.25 |
We would go long AVLR as we believe the majority of target shareholders will approve the deal, while we wouldn’t rule out a bump in the bid price if opposing shareholders gain enough support. However, we note that substantial (~30%) downside if the deal breaks on the vote. |
Tyro Payments |
TYR AU |
16/09/2022 |
1.28 |
We expect that Tyro will receive a sweetened offer from either the consortium, another PE, or a strategic bidder. |
GB Group |
GBG LN |
16/09/2022 |
5.94 |
Given the opportunistic timing of GTCR’s interest, there is a fair chance that talks fall apart. However, other PE firms might also turn up as GBG seems to be undervalued. |
Signify Health |
SGFY US |
14/09/2022 |
29.07 |
The current 4.6% deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, assuming a deal close not earlier than mid-2023. We cannot rule out that vertical issues will be deeply scrutinized. |
Brigham Minerals |
MNRL US |
13/09/2022 |
28.05 |
We believe that the 1Q2023 deal close guidance is manageable. |
Link Net TBK |
LINK IJ |
09/09/2022 |
4750 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 9, 2022 |
Countryside Partnerships |
CSP LN |
09/09/2022 |
257.2 |
We see no major obstacles confronting the deal, as both shareholder and CMA approvals should be smooth. The deal spread appears to be wide, however we note that Vistry might be subject to a bid that could lead to a deal break. |
Turquoise Hill Resources |
TRQ CN |
09/09/2022 |
41.23 |
Despite the materially improved bid from Rio Tinto, opposing shareholders have a good chance to derail the transaction. |
RPS Group |
RPS LN |
05/09/2022 |
210 |
RPS is trading above terms on a counterbid/improved bid optionality, however we don’t see a counter bidder coming in, thus we would not take a position long RPS. |
Link Net TBK |
LINK IJ |
02/09/2022 |
4750 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 2, 2022 |
Drilling Co of 1972 |
DRLCO DC |
02/09/2022 |
369.4 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 2, 2022 |
AVEVA |
AVV LN |
02/09/2022 |
2810 |
We would recommend taking a position long AVEVA as we expect a firm deal in the range of GBp2950-3150. |
Micro Focus International |
MCRO LN |
30/08/2022 |
519 |
The deal is expected to close in 1Q2023 due to the numerous regulatory approvals required. |
Nearmap |
NEA AU |
26/08/2022 |
2.1 |
A counterbid from another private equity appears to be unlikely, however cannot be ruled out completely. |
Recipe Unlimited |
RECP CN |
26/08/2022 |
19.85 |
One may consider a position long RECP going into deal announcement |
Darktrace |
DARK LN |
22/08/2022 |
5.26 |
We believe there is good chance for an agreed firm deal with Thoma Bravo. The target might squeeze out an offer above 700p given the attractive valuation and possible counterbid interest. |
OZ Minerals |
OZL AU |
18/08/2022 |
25.84 |
While deal rationale appears to be strong, the gap between parties’ valuation might be too large to overcome. |
Atlantia |
ATL IM |
16/08/2022 |
22.84 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 16, 2022 |
Meggitt |
MGGT LN |
16/08/2022 |
792.8 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 16, 2022 |
ChemoCentryx |
CCXI US |
16/08/2022 |
50.89 |
Based on the minor overlap in AAV treatment, regulatory scrutiny is unlikely to arise. |
Global Blood Therapeutics |
GBT US |
15/08/2022 |
66.75 |
An HSR re-filing might not be ruled out, however a second request appears to be unlikely based on the overlap and the competitive dynamics of the SCD space. Product related developments are not carved out of MAE, however no significant events are expected before deal close. |
iRobot |
IRBT US |
10/08/2022 |
59.5 |
We would not take a position at this time given the regulatory risks, long deal timeline and IRBT’s challenges. |
Ping Identity Holding Corp |
PING US |
09/08/2022 |
28.01 |
Deal risk is limited. We don’t see upside to the offer price thus chances of a counterbid are low. |
Quilter |
QLT LN |
09/08/2022 |
119.5 |
While it is hard to see whether a firm deal will materialize, we see the deal rationale, and would expect an offer price between GBp145-160. |
Infomedia |
IFM AU |
03/08/2022 |
1.59 |
We expect a firm deal announcement with final offer price around AUD1.75-1.85. |
Serica Energy |
SQZ LN |
02/08/2022 |
355.5 |
We don’t see the deal being accretive for bidder shareholders at current terms. Even assuming significant synergies does not change the math. |
Link Net TBK |
LINK IJ |
29/07/2022 |
4650 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 29, 2022 |
1Life Healthcare |
ONEM US |
29/07/2022 |
16.97 |
We believe that the deal might get a second request given the global scrutiny surrounding Big Tech, however it is likely to be approved given the lack of significant antitrust concerns |
Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives |
IEA US |
29/07/2022 |
14.14 |
We don’t expect an extended antitrust review given the competitive and fragmented market. As per our valuation, counterbid is also possible. |
Ironsource |
IS US |
28/07/2022 |
3.87 |
We see the merger as a good opportunity both for Ironsource and Unity shareholders, with some extra risk for Unity, as the leverage gained on a ad-tech asset might be badly timed. |
Meridian Bioscience |
VIVO US |
25/07/2022 |
32.48 |
The deal spread reflects the DOJ investigation-related uncertainty. |
Epizyme |
EPZM US |
21/07/2022 |
1.48 |
We see no major risk for the deal to finalize, but we are cautious about whether the shareholders will receive any CVR, although one may consider buying an almost free option for the possible CVR payouts. |
Resolute Forest Products |
RFP US |
19/07/2022 |
20.22 |
We believe the deal will be approved with remedies after an extended Canadian antitrust review. The likelihood of the CVR payout seems highly uncertain. |
Intertrust NV |
INTER NA |
15/07/2022 |
19.04 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 15, 2022 |
Vivo Energy |
VVO LN |
15/07/2022 |
152.8 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 15, 2022 |
Valora Holding |
VALN SW |
14/07/2022 |
259 |
The deal poses no major risk, therefore probability of close is high at offer terms. A counterbid cannot be ruled out, however we see it as a wild card scenario. |
Autogrill Spa |
AGL IM |
14/07/2022 |
6.3 |
The transfer of Edizione’s 50.3% stake is currently expected to close in Q1 2023, subject to regulatory approvals, while the transaction inclusive of mandatory takeover offer settlement is expected to be completed by Q2 2023. |
|
TWTR US |
12/07/2022 |
32.65 |
We believe that Musk’s arguments are not strong enough to justify deal termination. While Twitter has good chance to enforce specific performance, the court might prefer the parties agreeing in a cut price deal or awarding damages instead of forcing an unwilling buyer to acquire Twitter. |
LifeWorks |
LWRK CN |
08/07/2022 |
31.11 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however timing of the deal and dividend differential changes make a position difficult to evaluate. Low deal risk and significant downside makes us cautious. |
ContourGlobal |
GLO LN |
05/07/2022 |
2.525 |
One might consider going long GLO as deal risk seems to be limited. However, we note the substantial downside. |
Radius Health |
RDUS US |
05/07/2022 |
10.48 |
We see some risk regarding the CVR payment condition and the 50+% tender offer condition too, not ruling out that the bidder consortium will raise the offer. |
Swedish Match |
SWMA SS |
01/07/2022 |
104.55 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 1, 2022 |
Drilling Co of 1972 |
DRLCO DC |
01/07/2022 |
282.6 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 1, 2022 |
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Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest). As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level. |
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