Chain Bridge Research | Coverage List

Coverage List

Stock	Ticker	Date Published	Market Price on Publication Date	Recommendation
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings	AAWW US	17/03/2023	102.48	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 17, 2023
Black Knight	BKI US	17/03/2023	55.4	We see limited options for the parties to tackle all antirust issues.
InvoCare	IVC AU	16/03/2023	11.92	Based on InvoCare’s leading market share, the strength of the core business, historical valuation and precedent / peer multiples we believe that the Board might push for an increased bid.
Rothschild & Co	ROTH FP	14/03/2023	46.95	Considering the lengthy timeline, the current spread is tight. We assign low probability to a price bump.
Distell	DGH SJ	10/03/2023	17973	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings	AAWW US	10/03/2023	99.93	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023
GK Software	GKS GR	10/03/2023	186	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023
Uni-Select	UNS CN	10/03/2023	46.77	The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight, given the lengthy deal review.
GK Software	GKS GR	09/03/2023	186.8	We don’t expect extended antitrust or FDI review and see deal close in June 2023.
Tegna	TGNA US	03/03/2023	17.04	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 3, 2023
TravelCenters of America	TA US	03/03/2023	84.57	We believe that an extended review is unlikely and the mid-2023 /3Q deal close guidance is realistic.
Newcrest Mining	NCM AU	01/03/2023	23.38	NCM is currently trading below the rejected offer. We would expect at least one improved offer from Newmont.
1Life Healthcare	ONEM US	24/02/2023	16.47	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 27, 2023
Cardiovascular Systems	CSII US	24/02/2023	19.71	We see a limited probability of an HSR second request. However, nowadays healthcare faces higher regulatory attention in the US. Hence, we would conclude that the current deal spread is tight.
Kape Technologies	KAPE LN	22/02/2023	293	While we don’t expect the Board to support the offer at the current valuation an increased offer appears to be unlikely. Unikmind would be close to the 70% minimum acceptance threshold with the support of ExpressVPN founders, and with their support they most likely have the majority required at the EGM (75% of votes cast) to delist KAPE. Unikmind might even succeed with its current shareholding of 54.8%.
Oak Street Health	OSH US	17/02/2023	35.38	Given the lengthy deal review and other pending deals, the spread appears to be fair. The spread will be driven by the outcome of pending deals in the industry.
Magnet Forensics	MAGT CN	17/02/2023	44.25	MAGT is currently trading at the bid price. One could speculate on a bump, as Thoma Bravo might need to lift its bid in case target shareholder opposition further mounts
NuVasive	NUVA US	15/02/2023	44.4	We would not rule out a second request and a longer than expected deal timeline.
Meltwater	MWTR NO	08/02/2023	17.81	We expect the offer to close in May 2023.
Evoqua Water Technologies	AQUA US	08/02/2023	50.25	The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight given the possible delay in case of an HSR second request.
IAA Inc	IAA US	02/02/2023	42.41	The key risk is the bidder shareholder vote. While we see a higher chance that the deal will receive the requisite shareholder approvals than not, independent proxy advisors’ view might be crucial.
Atlas Corp	ATCO US	02/02/2023	14.82	Based on the deal premium, our standalone value estimate, peer and precedent multiples, industry headwinds and the fact that no other shareholders joined opposing holders we believe that it is more likely that the deal will be approved at the AGM.
Horizon Therapeutics	HZNP US	27/01/2023	110.63	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest Januar 27, 2023
Rovio	ROVIO FH	26/01/2023	7.16	Any deal would require the support of the controlling shareholder. There are no ongoing talks and the Rovio announcement sounds rather dismissive.
Horizon Therapeutics	HZNP US	26/01/2023	112.13	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus we recommend a position long HZNP. We note the substantial downside.
ForgeRock	FORG US	24/01/2023	19.99	Overall, we believe regulators are more likely to approve the merger than not. Microsoft’s unquestionable market presence might cool down antitrust concerns.
Caverion	CAV1V FH	20/01/2023	7.97	We believe that Bain has to increase its offer to retain support of the Caverion Board.
National Instruments	NATI US	20/01/2023	53.87	Due to NATI’s strong takeover defenses, EMR can’t force a deal without Board consent. NATI might drag the strategic review and based on the CEO’s bullish comments, they might elect to remain a standalone company. We see limited upside to the current offer based on our ROIC and LBO calculations.
Tegna	TGNA US	18/01/2023	20.01	Added to best ideas list in Best Ideas Januar 18, 2023
Duck Creek Technologies	DCT US	13/01/2023	19	Given the valuation and the limited number of potential counterbidders, we see low probability for a counterbid. However, the short timeline and the limited deal risk might offer a favourable entry point for an improved offer.
CinCor Pharma	CINC US	13/01/2023	29.01	We believe the CVR could worth ~$2-2.3 per share. Based on that the current spread is unattractive.
Euronav	EURN BB	13/01/2023	13.44	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 13, 2023
Albireo	ALBO US	11/01/2023	43.85	The CVR does not appear to be cheap at $1.85 considering the potentially long timeline until payout.
Sierra Wireless	SW CN	02/01/2023	41.62	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 06, 2023
Nitro Software	NTO AU	06/01/2023	2.21	Nitro is trading slightly above the A$2.15 per share recommended bid. While we believe Potentia needs to raise its offer to win, it might not be able to outbid KKR’s Alludo.
Aerojet Rocketdyne	AJRD US	22/12/2022	55.6	We see much less incentive for LHX to foreclose any of AJRD’s customers, misuse missile related sensitive information or to decrease R&D investment in missile technology.
Maxar Technologies	MAXR US	22/12/2022	51.78	We believe regulatory risk is limited. We recommend a position long MAXR going into the go-shop period as a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid.
Chr Hansen	CHR DC	20/12/2022	501	The deal spread appears to be tight considering the long timeline and the regulatory risk.
Va-Q-tec	VQT GR	19/12/2022	25.4	We would be cautious to take a position long in VQT as there are key geographical and product overlap which might lead to antitrust scrutiny.
Apollo Endosurgery	APEN US	16/12/2022	9.91	The deal spread is tight; however, one might speculate on a counterbid as APEN’s attractive portfolio might attract other suitors. We don’t expect extended antitrust review.
Shaw Communications	SJR/B CN	13/12/2022	36.515	We believe that Shaw and Rogers have the upper hand in the Tribunal process.
Horizon Therapeutics	HZNP US	9/12/2022	97.22	We see some upside potential, as we expect that Horizon will receive an offer before the January 10 deadline, potentially around $110-120.
Univar Solutions	UNVR US	9/12/2022	33.4	We believe Brenntag could offer up to ~$40.50 for Univar, however it would need to issue a large number of new shares which would make the deal unattractive to the company despite the potential synergies.
Devro	DVO LN	8/12/2022	308.5	The merging parties anticipate a Q3 2023 deal close. This might indicate a high probability of an indepth antitrust review. Based on that, the deal spread appears to be somewhat tight.
Home Capital Group	HCG CB	2/12/2022	42.61	We believe the deal will receive the required regulatory approvals, however timing seems uncertain.
Origin Energy	ORG AU	1/12/2022	7.97	The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be narrow, as regulatory concerns justify a wide spread, however we expect that after a lengthy review the ACCC approval will be granted.
Imago BioSciences	IMGO US	30/11/2022	35.7	We believe the deal spread is not attractive. The substantial downside and limited upside make us refrain from recommending a long IMGO.
Activision Blizzard	ATVI US	22/11/2022	82.15	Regulatory update
Vantage Towers	VTWR GR	22/11/2022	32.7	The domination agreement offers some upside (5-15%) which incentivizes minorities not to tender into the offer. This increases the probability of a domination agreement post offer.
IAA Inc	IAA US	17/11/2022	39.95	The main risks are the shareholder votes. Other IAA shareholders might oppose and put pressure on RBA and IAA boards to renegotiate
Atlantia	ATL IM	16/11/2022	22.93	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas November 16, 2022
HomeServe	HSV LN	16/11/2022	1191	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas November 16, 2022
Store Capital	STOR US	16/11/2022	31.7	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the limited deal risk. We recommend a position long STOR.
Altra Industrial Motion	AIMC US	15/11/2022	58.43	We expect the deal to receive a second request in the US as the companies have several horizontal overlaps and are competing with each other in some niche markets.
Tegna	TGNA US	11/11/2022	18.99	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2022
Euronav	EURN BB	11/11/2022	18.08	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2022
Euronav	EURN BB	10/11/2022	12.8	Given the high probability of a successful tender offer and limited deal risk, we believe the 2.5% deal spread is somewhat wide. Therefore, one may consider a position long deal spread with a view on a possibly shorter timeline.
ReadyTech	RDY AU	08/11/2022	4	We believe, PEP will come back with a sweetened offer, thus we would recommend a position long in RDY, especially as the spread is more than 10%. However, the downside could be around AUD3-3.1
Abiomed	ABMD US	07/11/2022	373.99	The CVR does not look attractive given the long expected timeline to trigger milestone payments.
Distell	DGH SJ	04/11/2022	17305	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 4, 2022
Tower Semiconductor	TSEM US	04/11/2022	48.21	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 4, 2022
Sierra Wireless	SW CN	28/10/2022	40.33	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 28, 2022
SeaSpine Holdings	SPNE US	27/10/2022	6.21	We see some risk regarding the shareholder approvals, however we are still optimistic that both shareholder groups will vote for the merger.
Albertsons	ACI US	27/10/2022	20.36	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. However, political opposition, timeline and final consideration related uncertainties make us refrain from recommending a position long deal spread.
Sierra Wireless	SW CN	26/10/2022	40.54	We believe regulators will approve the deal without any remedies, as there are no horizontal overlaps and vertical issues are limited. Based on that, we would go long SWIR.
Interstrust	INTER NA	21/10/2022	19.94	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 21, 2022
Swedish Match	SWMA SS	21/10/2022	111.5	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 21, 2022
Aveva Group	AVV LN	20/10/2022	3147	Update on shareholder opposition - We believe target shareholder approval could be guaranteed with an offer of around GBp3300. We see Schneider sweetening its bid given that it is highly likely that publicly opposing shareholders have a blocking stake
ForgeRock	FORG US	19/10/2022	22.54	Overall, we believe regulators will sign-off the deal given the fragmented nature of the IAM submarkets. We note the substantial downside.
Atlantia	ATL IM	14/10/2022	22.39	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 14, 2022
Pushpay	PPH NZ	14/10/2022	1.15	A firm deal announcement could be made around NZD1.4, but we see it hard for BGH to win PPH Board’s support as it could be hard to negotiate a satisfactory offer for both parties.
Myovant	MYOV US	14/10/2022	25.1	Limited downside and high probability of an improved offer makes us recommend a long MYOV.
Poshmark	POSH US	11/10/2022	17.66	Deal risk is limited; thus the spread is tight. We expect the deal to close in mid-Q1 2023
1Life Healthcare	ONEM US	07/10/2022	16.98	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 7, 2022
HomeServe	HSV LN	07/10/2022	1185	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 7, 2022
DXC Technology	DXC US	07/10/2022	26.89	Assuming a 5% probability to an offer at $45 and 25% at $35 we would take a position long DXC below ~$27.
Capricorn Energy	CNE LN	07/10/2022	245.4	The main risks are the shareholder votes, thus we would retain from a position at this point.
Pendragon	PDG LN	04/10/2022	27.2	We believe that it would be difficult for the Board not to support Hedin’s 29p offer after the Board and other Top 5 shareholders were willing to engage with a third party in August at the same price. The Board might use the time until the PUSU deadline to try and find a better deal before granting its support to Hedin’s bid.
BTRS Holdings	BTRS US	04/10/2022	9.27	Deal risk is limited. We expect the deal to close in Q1 2023.
Pendal	PDL AU	30/09/2022	4.5	The market seems to be pessimistic about the deal. We would expect a deal close by the end of mid/late Q1.
Cano Health	CANO US	29/09/2022	8.84	We assign a high probability to a firm deal announcement. While activist shareholder and an analyst assume a $14 possible takeout price, with a conservative $12 takeout a riskreward still favors a position long CANO.
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings	AAWW US	28/09/2022	95.88	The key risk is around debt financing, thus the deal spread is somewhat wide. We would refrain from a position long AAWW at this stage.
Tegna	TGNA US	23/09/2022	21.55	Update - We continue to consider the deal spread to be somewhat wide.
Avalara	AVLR US	23/09/2022	92.25	We would go long AVLR as we believe the majority of target shareholders will approve the deal, while we wouldn’t rule out a bump in the bid price if opposing shareholders gain enough support. However, we note that substantial (~30%) downside if the deal breaks on the vote.
Tyro Payments	TYR AU	16/09/2022	1.28	We expect that Tyro will receive a sweetened offer from either the consortium, another PE, or a strategic bidder.
GB Group	GBG LN	16/09/2022	5.94	Given the opportunistic timing of GTCR’s interest, there is a fair chance that talks fall apart. However, other PE firms might also turn up as GBG seems to be undervalued.
Signify Health	SGFY US	14/09/2022	29.07	The current 4.6% deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, assuming a deal close not earlier than mid-2023. We cannot rule out that vertical issues will be deeply scrutinized.
Brigham Minerals	MNRL US	13/09/2022	28.05	We believe that the 1Q2023 deal close guidance is manageable.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	09/09/2022	4750	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 9, 2022
Countryside Partnerships	CSP LN	09/09/2022	257.2	We see no major obstacles confronting the deal, as both shareholder and CMA approvals should be smooth. The deal spread appears to be wide, however we note that Vistry might be subject to a bid that could lead to a deal break.
Turquoise Hill Resources	TRQ CN	09/09/2022	41.23	Despite the materially improved bid from Rio Tinto, opposing shareholders have a good chance to derail the transaction.
RPS Group	RPS LN	05/09/2022	210	RPS is trading above terms on a counterbid/improved bid optionality, however we don’t see a counter bidder coming in, thus we would not take a position long RPS.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	02/09/2022	4750	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 2, 2022
Drilling Co of 1972	DRLCO DC	02/09/2022	369.4	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 2, 2022
AVEVA	AVV LN	02/09/2022	2810	We would recommend taking a position long AVEVA as we expect a firm deal in the range of GBp2950-3150.
Micro Focus International	MCRO LN	30/08/2022	519	The deal is expected to close in 1Q2023 due to the numerous regulatory approvals required.
Nearmap	NEA AU	26/08/2022	2.1	A counterbid from another private equity appears to be unlikely, however cannot be ruled out completely.
Recipe Unlimited	RECP CN	26/08/2022	19.85	One may consider a position long RECP going into deal announcement
Darktrace	DARK LN	22/08/2022	5.26	We believe there is good chance for an agreed firm deal with Thoma Bravo. The target might squeeze out an offer above 700p given the attractive valuation and possible counterbid interest.
OZ Minerals	OZL AU	18/08/2022	25.84	While deal rationale appears to be strong, the gap between parties’ valuation might be too large to overcome.
Atlantia	ATL IM	16/08/2022	22.84	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 16, 2022
Meggitt	MGGT LN	16/08/2022	792.8	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 16, 2022
ChemoCentryx	CCXI US	16/08/2022	50.89	Based on the minor overlap in AAV treatment, regulatory scrutiny is unlikely to arise.
Global Blood Therapeutics	GBT US	15/08/2022	66.75	An HSR re-filing might not be ruled out, however a second request appears to be unlikely based on the overlap and the competitive dynamics of the SCD space. Product related developments are not carved out of MAE, however no significant events are expected before deal close.
iRobot	IRBT US	10/08/2022	59.5	We would not take a position at this time given the regulatory risks, long deal timeline and IRBT’s challenges.
Ping Identity Holding Corp	PING US	09/08/2022	28.01	Deal risk is limited. We don’t see upside to the offer price thus chances of a counterbid are low.
Quilter	QLT LN	09/08/2022	119.5	While it is hard to see whether a firm deal will materialize, we see the deal rationale, and would expect an offer price between GBp145-160.
Infomedia	IFM AU	03/08/2022	1.59	We expect a firm deal announcement with final offer price around AUD1.75-1.85.
Serica Energy	SQZ LN	02/08/2022	355.5	We don’t see the deal being accretive for bidder shareholders at current terms. Even assuming significant synergies does not change the math.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	29/07/2022	4650	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 29, 2022
1Life Healthcare	ONEM US	29/07/2022	16.97	We believe that the deal might get a second request given the global scrutiny surrounding Big Tech, however it is likely to be approved given the lack of significant antitrust concerns
Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives	IEA US	29/07/2022	14.14	We don’t expect an extended antitrust review given the competitive and fragmented market. As per our valuation, counterbid is also possible.
Ironsource	IS US	28/07/2022	3.87	We see the merger as a good opportunity both for Ironsource and Unity shareholders, with some extra risk for Unity, as the leverage gained on a ad-tech asset might be badly timed.
Meridian Bioscience	VIVO US	25/07/2022	32.48	The deal spread reflects the DOJ investigation-related uncertainty.
Epizyme	EPZM US	21/07/2022	1.48	We see no major risk for the deal to finalize, but we are cautious about whether the shareholders will receive any CVR, although one may consider buying an almost free option for the possible CVR payouts.
Resolute Forest Products	RFP US	19/07/2022	20.22	We believe the deal will be approved with remedies after an extended Canadian antitrust review. The likelihood of the CVR payout seems highly uncertain.
Intertrust NV	INTER NA	15/07/2022	19.04	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 15, 2022
Vivo Energy	VVO LN	15/07/2022	152.8	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 15, 2022
Valora Holding	VALN SW	14/07/2022	259	The deal poses no major risk, therefore probability of close is high at offer terms. A counterbid cannot be ruled out, however we see it as a wild card scenario.
Autogrill Spa	AGL IM	14/07/2022	6.3	The transfer of Edizione’s 50.3% stake is currently expected to close in Q1 2023, subject to regulatory approvals, while the transaction inclusive of mandatory takeover offer settlement is expected to be completed by Q2 2023.
Twitter	TWTR US	12/07/2022	32.65	We believe that Musk’s arguments are not strong enough to justify deal termination. While Twitter has good chance to enforce specific performance, the court might prefer the parties agreeing in a cut price deal or awarding damages instead of forcing an unwilling buyer to acquire Twitter.
LifeWorks	LWRK CN	08/07/2022	31.11	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however timing of the deal and dividend differential changes make a position difficult to evaluate. Low deal risk and significant downside makes us cautious.
ContourGlobal	GLO LN	05/07/2022	2.525	One might consider going long GLO as deal risk seems to be limited. However, we note the substantial downside.
Radius Health	RDUS US	05/07/2022	10.48	We see some risk regarding the CVR payment condition and the 50+% tender offer condition too, not ruling out that the bidder consortium will raise the offer.
Swedish Match	SWMA SS	01/07/2022	104.55	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 1, 2022
Drilling Co of 1972	DRLCO DC	01/07/2022	282.6	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 1, 2022
Zendesk	ZEN US	01/07/2022	74	The mix of ZEN financing and the involvement of private debt from cash-rich shadow lenders makes us confident that the financing of the takeover will be less exposed to any debt market turmoil
Emis Group	EMIS LN	29/06/2022	1864	The deal spread does not appear to be attractive considering the estimated timeline, the overlaps between the companies, EMIS’ high market share in certain segments and involvement of sensitive healthcare data.
Shaftesbury	SHB LN	29/06/2022	546.5	We believe that the key risk to the deal is the SHB shareholder vote. As a standalone company, we see SHB shares trading around 600p, which makes an SHB shareholder approval unlikely.
Go-Ahead Group	GOG LN	29/06/2022	15.92	We believe there is good chance for a higher offer either from Kelsian or other parties.
Drilling Co of 1972	DRLCO DC	24/06/2022	311	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 24, 2022
Duke Realty Corp	DRE US	21/06/2022	51.44	We see limited deal risk around the shareholder votes as the deal rationale appears to be strong.
Turning Point Therapeutics	TPTX US	21/06/2022	74.46	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus, we recommend a long position TPTX. We note the substantial downside around $30/TPTX.
Yancoal Australia	YAL AU	16/06/2022	5.45	We expect Yankuang to sweeten its offer significantly to earn board and shareholder support.
Biffa	BIFF LN	14/06/2022	4.08	We believe there is good chance for a firm deal either at 445p or more. Based on our valuation, there is upside to the deal price thus target shareholders might be able to squeeze out a higher offer if an agreed firm deal materializes.
Accell Group	ACCEL NA	10/06/2022	58	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 10, 2022
Yamana Gold	YRI CN	10/06/2022	6.84	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however shareholder support might be in jeopardy based on the GFI share price reaction.
Capricorn Energy	CNE LN	08/06/2022	207.4	We believe the key risks are the shareholder votes, especially for the target as the promised synergies and strategic rational might not offset the lack of meaningful deal premium.
FirstGroup	FGP LN	03/06/2022	1.37	We believe the bidder might need to further increase its bid to secure board support.
VMWare	VMW US	01/06/2022	129	The deal spread does not appear to be attractive at this point given the long deal timeline.
ManTech International	MANT US	31/05/2022	95.4	Deal risk is limited. We wouldn’t expect a counterbid as there might have been a sale process before the agreement with Carlyle.
Siemens Gamesa	SGRE SM	31/05/2022	17.85	Given the actual market conditions and the outlook for Gamesa, we do not expect a bump in the offer price as the substantial downside for the standalone company increases the probability of the shareholders tendering into the offer
Cerner	CERN US	27/05/2022	94.68	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 27, 2022
HomeServe	HSV LN	27/05/2022	1163	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the upside optionality to the deal timeline and the limited deal risk. We note the significant downside.
Swedish Match	SWMA SS	24/05/2022	101.85	We expect the deal to go through as we see no major competition issues. We also see some upside, as PM could raise the offer price under SWMA shareholder pressure.
Black Knight	BKI US	23/05/2022	71.81	The current spread reflects the lengthy deal timeline and the probability of the deal falling apart. We also note that there is no litigation obligation and divestiture obligation is limited to BKI assets.
Tower Semiconductor	TSEM US	20/05/2022	45.69	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022
Tegna	TGNA US	20/05/2022	20.99	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022
Columbia Care	CCHW CN	20/05/2022	2.69	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022
Silicon Motion Technology Corp	SIMO US	20/05/2022	90.67	We would not take a position long SIMO at this point given the lengthy timeline. The Chinese approval poses substantial risk to the deal, in our view.
Alliance Aviation	AQZ AU	19/05/2022	4.01	We believe that the antitrust risk is high. The ACCC’s comments after its 3-year review of Qantas’ original minority stake purchase, the limited number of competitors in the target’s key markets and Alliance’s collaboration agreement with Virgin make us cautious.
Zynga	ZNGA US	20/05/2022	8.18	Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas May 16, 2022
Biohaven	BHVN US	16/05/2022	141	Deal risks appear to be limited. We note that product related adverse events are not carved out of MAE.
Twitter	TWTR US	11/05/2022	47.26	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Assuming a $30 downside and an early August deal close deal closing probability is around 72%.
Shaw Communications	SJR/B CN	09/05/2022	34.87	The key question is whether Rogers believes that deal benefits (larger cable business, 5G spectrum) outweigh the competitive threat posed by a stronger Quebecor. We are less convinced, that Rogers would vigorously pursue the deal in case Quebecor is not approved as a buyer before the extended Outside date, July 31.
Activision	ATVI US	06/05/2022	77.84	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022
Accell Group	ACCEL NA	06/05/2022	57	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022
Atlantia	ATL IM	06/05/2022	22.85	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022
Meggitt	MGGT LN	06/05/2022	778	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022
Link	LNK AU	06/05/2022	4.96	We would take a long position on Link as we think the Woodford issue will not materialize in any public finding from the FCA in the upcoming months, but we would wait the next merger update to assess the possible timeline delay to mitigate the downside risk.
Ubisoft Entertainment	UBI FP	04/05/2022	43.01	We believe Ubisoft is likely to receive indicative proposals from either PEs or strategic buyers.
Datto	MSP US	04/05/2022	34.61	The deal spread appears to be wide given the limited deal risk. The number of competitors makes a rigorous antitrust review unlikely. Further, in case of an extended review, the divestiture obligation makes a successful deal close likely.
South Jersey Industries	SJI US	29/04/2022	34.42	The long timeframe and potential regulatory risks do not justify a position long SJI for now. However, the deal will ultimately be approved in our view, after a thorough review.
Autogrill Spa	AGL IM	27/04/2022	6.9	The deal has a good chance of approval in our view, given the complementary nature (both in terms of geographic and product category exposure) of the businesses and factors that highlight the competitiveness of the travel retail market and the bidding for concessions:
Ramsay Health	RHC AU	25/04/2022	84.27	We expect a firm deal to be struck most likely under these conditions, however we cannot rule out a slightly higher offer, as Ramsay’s books may forecast a brighter than expected future as covid restrictions are almost completely gone
Citrix	CTXS US	22/04/2022	101.5	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 22, 2022
Ferro	FOE US	22/04/2022	22.01	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 22, 2022
Twitter	TWTR US	22/04/2022	47.08	Given Musk’s commitment to the deal and the potential upside to the current proposal one may consider a position long TWTR. We note the substantial downside which could be even lower once Musk becomes a seller of TWTR shares.
Atlantia	ATL IM	20/04/2022	22.79	A counter bid or a higher offer appear unlikely. The deal could close in 3Q2022.
Intersect ENT	XENT US	14/04/2022	27.96	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 14, 2022
Euronav	EURN BB	14/04/2022	11.82	Update - We are altering our view laid out in our April 13 initiation report. As a successful deal close without CMB’s support is unlikely, there is a risk that parties reconsider their intention to combine or in case they push forward with a firm deal, it might fail on shareholder opposition. We no longer recommend setting up the deal spread.
Nielsen Holdings	NLSN US	14/04/2022	27.24	Despite WindAcre’s opposition, bidders have a good shot to succeed with takeover offer, in our view. The key question is whether WindAcre manages to convince enough Nielsen shareholders to oppose the transaction.
Euronav	EURN BB	13/04/2022	11.82	Given the high probability of a firm deal and a tighter spread post announcement, one may consider a long position on the deal spread.
Neenah	NP US	08/04/2022	38.23	Regulatory risk is limited. Shareholder opposition might arise as the value of SWM’s all-share offer is lower than NP’s current share price.
Pendal	PDL AU	08/04/2022	5.27	We expect the Pendal Board to reject the offer under these terms, as it is opportunistic and undervalues PDL. As the Fund Management sector needs to consolidate, we expect PPT to sweeten its bid.
Spirit Airlines	SAVE US	07/04/2022	26.28	We see the SAVE/ULCC merger more viable from a regulatory perspective than a SAVE/JBLU combination. The SAVE board, however might find it hard to turn down JBLU’s offer.
Columbia Care	CCHW CN	05/04/2022	3.59	The deal spread appears to be wide given the limited downside, therefore would recommend a position long the deal spread.
Western Areas	WSA AU	01/04/2022	3.65	We think that the bullish outlook of nickel and the pressure put on IGO by the Indepent Expert’s report and WSA shareholders will result in a sweetend offer price. Downside risk seems limited based on WSA valuation.
LHC Group	LHCG US	31/03/2022	168	We would not be surprised if the deal received a second request given UNH’s size and its acquisition of Landmark Health.
Anaplan	PLAN US	29/03/2022	65.13	Deal risk is limited. We attach low chance to a counterbid given the fair premium and the support of activist shareholders.
Neles	NELES FH	25/03/2022	9.11	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 25, 2022
Pearson	PSON LN	25/03/2022	767	A 30%-50% probability of an improved and agreed offer around 900p-950p makes us believe that the current PSON share price offers a favorable risk/reward to enter a position long PSON below ~770p.
Turquoise Hill Resources	TRQ CN	23/03/2022	38.24	We believe Rio Tinto needs to improve its offer materially to succeed.
Mediaset Espana	TL5 SM	22/03/2022	4.59	We expect MES shareholders to reject the offer and MFE to return with a sweetened bid to pursue its European expansion plans. TL5 downside appears to be limited at these levels.
Mandiant	MNDT US	18/03/2022	22.15	We would take a position long MNDT at current stage.
Avast	AVST LN	18/03/2022	568	Our main concern is that remedies might be difficult to structure.
CareTech	CTH LN	11/03/2022	670	We see likely that a firm deal announcement will happen before the April 4 deadline with an offer price around GBp725-775.
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt	HMHC US	08/03/2022	20.88	We believe the limited downside, the short timeframe, and the substantial upside offer a favorable risk-reward for a position long HMHC.
Nuance	NUAN US	04/03/2022	55.99	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 4, 2022
Z Energy	ZEL NZ	04/03/2022	3.68	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 4, 2022
Oxford Instruments	OXIG LN	04/03/2022	23	We believe a firm deal has strong strategic rationale, as the product portfolios are rather complementary. We see no upside to the offer price; however downside is significant in a no-deal situation. The Ukrainian war might also affect the chances of a firm deal.
AGL Energy	AGL AU	04/03/2022	7.42	We expect the bidder to come back with an improved offer. We expect a lengthy regulatory review in case a firm deal is reached.
Tegna	TGNA US	02/03/2022	22.84	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however the lengthy deal timeline makes us cautious recommending a position long TGNA this time.
Z Energy	ZEL NZ	02/03/2022	3.64	The key risk is timing, as the NZCC in our view is likely to require upfront divestiture of the Gull business.
MoneyGram International	MGI US	25/02/2022	10.75	Deal risk appears to be limited. We recommend a position long MGI going into the go-shop period, as the current deal spread offers a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid.
Tower Semiconductor	TSEM US	23/02/2022	46.87	We expect the deal to receive regulatory approvals given the complementary nature and the limited market share in the foundry business. The key question appears to be timing of the SAMR decision.
US Ecology	ECOL US	22/02/2022	47.2	Considering a mid 2Q 2022 deal close the deal spread is at the upper end of a plain vanilla transaction. However we cannot completely rule out a rigorous review and some delay in the deal timeline. This makes us refrain from recommending a position long ECOL at current stage. Ultimately we see the deal being closed.
John Menzies	MNZS LN	18/02/2022	5.83	We believe there is a good chance for a firm deal either at 605p or more
BioDelivery Sciences	BDSI US	16/02/2022	5.56	The deal spread does not appear to be attractive. An extended review appears unlikely, therefore the deal could close in line with the 1Q guidance.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	15/02/2022	4330	Added to best ideas list in APAC Best Ideas February 15, 2022
Zynga	ZNGA US	15/02/2022	9.05	Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 15, 2022
Cerner	CERN US	15/02/2022	92.03	Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 15, 2022
Vivo Energy	VVO LN	15/02/2022	133	Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas February 15, 2022
VIB Vermoegen	VIH1 GR	11/02/2022	52.8	We don’t see significant chance for a higher offer from DIC. The effective minimum acceptance condition of 18.5% is quite low and waivable. VIB appears to be overvalued compared to its peers and DIC faces constraints to improve its bid (leverage, FFO accretion).
Cedar Fair	FUN US	11/02/2022	59.71	Reaching a firm deal might be difficult and a hostile offer seems unlikely given FUN’s strong takeover defenses. We note the substantial upside above $75. Downside in a no deal situation is around $50.
Spirit Airlines	SAVE US	11/02/2022	27.3	The merger is likely to face antitrust scrutiny in the US. The merging parties compete in several overlapping city-pairs, where they would have ability and incentive to raise prices after the combination.
Citrix	CTXS US	04/02/2022	102.9	Deal risks appear to be limited, however we find the current spread unattractive.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	02/02/2022	4430	We believe the transaction will receive the necessary approvals in the expected timeline, offering attractive upside potential.
Neo Lithium	NLC CN	28/02/2022	6.49	Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas January 28, 2022

Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest). As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level.

Coverage List

exclusively marketed bypcs research group

exclusively marketed by
pcs research group