Stock |
Ticker |
Date Published |
Market Price on Publication Date |
Recommendation |
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings |
AAWW US |
17/03/2023 |
102.48 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 17, 2023 |
Black Knight |
BKI US |
17/03/2023 |
55.4 |
We see limited options for the parties to tackle all antirust issues. |
InvoCare |
IVC AU |
16/03/2023 |
11.92 |
Based on InvoCare’s leading market share, the strength of the core business, historical valuation and precedent / peer multiples we believe that the Board might push for an increased bid. |
Rothschild & Co |
ROTH FP |
14/03/2023 |
46.95 |
Considering the lengthy timeline, the current spread is tight. We assign low probability to a price bump. |
Distell |
DGH SJ |
10/03/2023 |
17973 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023 |
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings |
AAWW US |
10/03/2023 |
99.93 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023 |
GK Software |
GKS GR |
10/03/2023 |
186 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023 |
Uni-Select |
UNS CN |
10/03/2023 |
46.77 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight, given the lengthy deal review. |
GK Software |
GKS GR |
09/03/2023 |
186.8 |
We don’t expect extended antitrust or FDI review and see deal close in June 2023. |
Tegna |
TGNA US |
03/03/2023 |
17.04 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 3, 2023 |
TravelCenters of America |
TA US |
03/03/2023 |
84.57 |
We believe that an extended review is unlikely and the mid-2023 /3Q deal close guidance is realistic. |
Newcrest Mining |
NCM AU |
01/03/2023 |
23.38 |
NCM is currently trading below the rejected offer. We would expect at least one improved offer from Newmont. |
1Life Healthcare |
ONEM US |
24/02/2023 |
16.47 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 27, 2023 |
Cardiovascular Systems |
CSII US |
24/02/2023 |
19.71 |
We see a limited probability of an HSR second request. However, nowadays healthcare faces higher regulatory attention in the US. Hence, we would conclude that the current deal spread is tight. |
Kape Technologies |
KAPE LN |
22/02/2023 |
293 |
While we don’t expect the Board to support the offer at the current valuation an increased offer appears to be unlikely. Unikmind would be close to the 70% minimum acceptance threshold with the support of ExpressVPN founders, and with their support they most likely have the majority required at the EGM (75% of votes cast) to delist KAPE. Unikmind might even succeed with its current shareholding of 54.8%. |
Oak Street Health |
OSH US |
17/02/2023 |
35.38 |
Given the lengthy deal review and other pending deals, the spread appears to be fair. The spread will be driven by the outcome of pending deals in the industry. |
Magnet Forensics |
MAGT CN |
17/02/2023 |
44.25 |
MAGT is currently trading at the bid price. One could speculate on a bump, as Thoma Bravo might need to lift its bid in case target shareholder opposition further mounts |
NuVasive |
NUVA US |
15/02/2023 |
44.4 |
We would not rule out a second request and a longer than expected deal timeline. |
Meltwater |
MWTR NO |
08/02/2023 |
17.81 |
We expect the offer to close in May 2023. |
Evoqua Water Technologies |
AQUA US |
08/02/2023 |
50.25 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight given the possible delay in case of an HSR second request. |
IAA Inc |
IAA US |
02/02/2023 |
42.41 |
The key risk is the bidder shareholder vote. While we see a higher chance that the deal will receive the requisite shareholder approvals than not, independent proxy advisors’ view might be crucial. |
Atlas Corp |
ATCO US |
02/02/2023 |
14.82 |
Based on the deal premium, our standalone value estimate, peer and precedent multiples, industry headwinds and the fact that no other shareholders joined opposing holders we believe that it is more likely that the deal will be approved at the AGM. |
Horizon Therapeutics |
HZNP US |
27/01/2023 |
110.63 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest Januar 27, 2023 |
Rovio |
ROVIO FH |
26/01/2023 |
7.16 |
Any deal would require the support of the controlling shareholder. There are no ongoing talks and the Rovio announcement sounds rather dismissive. |
Horizon Therapeutics |
HZNP US |
26/01/2023 |
112.13 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus we recommend a position long HZNP. We note the substantial downside. |
ForgeRock |
FORG US |
24/01/2023 |
19.99 |
Overall, we believe regulators are more likely to approve the merger than not. Microsoft’s unquestionable market presence might cool down antitrust concerns. |
Caverion |
CAV1V FH |
20/01/2023 |
7.97 |
We believe that Bain has to increase its offer to retain support of the Caverion Board. |
National Instruments |
NATI US |
20/01/2023 |
53.87 |
Due to NATI’s strong takeover defenses, EMR can’t force a deal without Board consent. NATI might drag the strategic review and based on the CEO’s bullish comments, they might elect to remain a standalone company. We see limited upside to the current offer based on our ROIC and LBO calculations. |
Tegna |
TGNA US |
18/01/2023 |
20.01 |
Added to best ideas list in Best Ideas Januar 18, 2023 |
Duck Creek Technologies |
DCT US |
13/01/2023 |
19 |
Given the valuation and the limited number of potential counterbidders, we see low probability for a counterbid. However, the short timeline and the limited deal risk might offer a favourable entry point for an improved offer. |
CinCor Pharma |
CINC US |
13/01/2023 |
29.01 |
We believe the CVR could worth ~$2-2.3 per share. Based on that the current spread is unattractive. |
Euronav |
EURN BB |
13/01/2023 |
13.44 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 13, 2023 |
Albireo |
ALBO US |
11/01/2023 |
43.85 |
The CVR does not appear to be cheap at $1.85 considering the potentially long timeline until payout. |
Sierra Wireless |
SW CN |
02/01/2023 |
41.62 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 06, 2023 |
Nitro Software |
NTO AU |
06/01/2023 |
2.21 |
Nitro is trading slightly above the A$2.15 per share recommended bid. While we believe Potentia needs to raise its offer to win, it might not be able to outbid KKR’s Alludo. |
Aerojet Rocketdyne |
AJRD US |
22/12/2022 |
55.6 |
We see much less incentive for LHX to foreclose any of AJRD’s customers, misuse missile related sensitive information or to decrease R&D investment in missile technology. |
Maxar Technologies |
MAXR US |
22/12/2022 |
51.78 |
We believe regulatory risk is limited. We recommend a position long MAXR going into the go-shop period as a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid. |
Chr Hansen |
CHR DC |
20/12/2022 |
501 |
The deal spread appears to be tight considering the long timeline and the regulatory risk. |
Va-Q-tec |
VQT GR |
19/12/2022 |
25.4 |
We would be cautious to take a position long in VQT as there are key geographical and product overlap which might lead to antitrust scrutiny. |
Apollo Endosurgery |
APEN US |
16/12/2022 |
9.91 |
The deal spread is tight; however, one might speculate on a counterbid as APEN’s attractive portfolio might attract other suitors. We don’t expect extended antitrust review. |
Shaw Communications |
SJR/B CN |
13/12/2022 |
36.515 |
We believe that Shaw and Rogers have the upper hand in the Tribunal process. |
Horizon Therapeutics |
HZNP US |
9/12/2022 |
97.22 |
We see some upside potential, as we expect that Horizon will receive an offer before the January 10 deadline, potentially around $110-120. |
Univar Solutions |
UNVR US |
9/12/2022 |
33.4 |
We believe Brenntag could offer up to ~$40.50 for Univar, however it would need to issue a large number of new shares which would make the deal unattractive to the company despite the potential synergies. |
Devro |
DVO LN |
8/12/2022 |
308.5 |
The merging parties anticipate a Q3 2023 deal close. This might indicate a high probability of an indepth antitrust review. Based on that, the deal spread appears to be somewhat tight. |
Home Capital Group |
HCG CB |
2/12/2022 |
42.61 |
We believe the deal will receive the required regulatory approvals, however timing seems uncertain. |
Origin Energy |
ORG AU |
1/12/2022 |
7.97 |
The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be narrow, as regulatory concerns justify a wide spread, however we expect that after a lengthy review the ACCC approval will be granted. |
Imago BioSciences |
IMGO US |
30/11/2022 |
35.7 |
We believe the deal spread is not attractive. The substantial downside and limited upside make us refrain from recommending a long IMGO. |
Activision Blizzard |
ATVI US |
22/11/2022 |
82.15 |
Regulatory update |
Vantage Towers |
VTWR GR |
22/11/2022 |
32.7 |
The domination agreement offers some upside (5-15%) which incentivizes minorities not to tender into the offer. This increases the probability of a domination agreement post offer. |
IAA Inc |
IAA US |
17/11/2022 |
39.95 |
The main risks are the shareholder votes. Other IAA shareholders might oppose and put pressure on RBA and IAA boards to renegotiate |
Atlantia |
ATL IM |
16/11/2022 |
22.93 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas November 16, 2022 |
HomeServe |
HSV LN |
16/11/2022 |
1191 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas November 16, 2022 |
Store Capital |
STOR US |
16/11/2022 |
31.7 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the limited deal risk. We recommend a position long STOR. |
Altra Industrial Motion |
AIMC US |
15/11/2022 |
58.43 |
We expect the deal to receive a second request in the US as the companies have several horizontal overlaps and are competing with each other in some niche markets. |
Tegna |
TGNA US |
11/11/2022 |
18.99 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2022 |
Euronav |
EURN BB |
11/11/2022 |
18.08 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2022 |
Euronav |
EURN BB |
10/11/2022 |
12.8 |
Given the high probability of a successful tender offer and limited deal risk, we believe the 2.5% deal spread is somewhat wide. Therefore, one may consider a position long deal spread with a view on a possibly shorter timeline. |
ReadyTech |
RDY AU |
08/11/2022 |
4 |
We believe, PEP will come back with a sweetened offer, thus we would recommend a position long in RDY, especially as the spread is more than 10%. However, the downside could be around AUD3-3.1 |
Abiomed |
ABMD US |
07/11/2022 |
373.99 |
The CVR does not look attractive given the long expected timeline to trigger milestone payments. |
Distell |
DGH SJ |
04/11/2022 |
17305 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 4, 2022 |
Tower Semiconductor |
TSEM US |
04/11/2022 |
48.21 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 4, 2022 |
Sierra Wireless |
SW CN |
28/10/2022 |
40.33 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 28, 2022 |
SeaSpine Holdings |
SPNE US |
27/10/2022 |
6.21 |
We see some risk regarding the shareholder approvals, however we are still optimistic that both shareholder groups |
Albertsons |
ACI US |
27/10/2022 |
20.36 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. However, political opposition, timeline and final consideration related uncertainties make us refrain from recommending a position long deal spread. |
Sierra Wireless |
SW CN |
26/10/2022 |
40.54 |
We believe regulators will approve the deal without any remedies, as there are no horizontal overlaps and vertical issues are limited. Based on that, we would go long SWIR. |
Interstrust |
INTER NA |
21/10/2022 |
19.94 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 21, 2022 |
Swedish Match |
SWMA SS |
21/10/2022 |
111.5 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 21, 2022 |
Aveva Group |
AVV LN |
20/10/2022 |
3147 |
Update on shareholder opposition - We believe target shareholder approval could be guaranteed with an offer of around GBp3300. We see Schneider sweetening its bid given that it is highly likely that publicly opposing shareholders have a blocking |
ForgeRock |
FORG US |
19/10/2022 |
22.54 |
Overall, we believe regulators will sign-off the deal given the fragmented nature of the IAM submarkets. We note the substantial downside. |
Atlantia |
ATL IM |
14/10/2022 |
22.39 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 14, 2022 |
Pushpay |
PPH NZ |
14/10/2022 |
1.15 |
A firm deal announcement could be made around NZD1.4, but we see it hard for BGH to win PPH Board’s support as it could be hard to negotiate a satisfactory offer for both parties. |
Myovant |
MYOV US |
14/10/2022 |
25.1 |
Limited downside and high probability of an improved offer makes us recommend a long MYOV. |
Poshmark |
POSH US |
11/10/2022 |
17.66 |
Deal risk is limited; thus the spread is tight. We expect the deal to close in mid-Q1 2023 |
1Life Healthcare |
ONEM US |
07/10/2022 |
16.98 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 7, 2022 |
HomeServe |
HSV LN |
07/10/2022 |
1185 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 7, 2022 |
DXC Technology |
DXC US |
07/10/2022 |
26.89 |
Assuming a 5% probability to an offer at $45 and 25% at $35 we would take a position long DXC below ~$27. |
Capricorn Energy |
CNE LN |
07/10/2022 |
245.4 |
The main risks are the shareholder votes, thus we would retain from a position at this point. |
Pendragon |
PDG LN |
04/10/2022 |
27.2 |
We believe that it would be difficult for the Board not to support Hedin’s 29p offer after the Board and other Top 5 shareholders were willing to engage with a third party in August at the same price. The Board might use the time until the PUSU deadline to try and find a better deal before granting its support to Hedin’s bid. |
BTRS Holdings |
BTRS US |
04/10/2022 |
9.27 |
Deal risk is limited. We expect the deal to close in Q1 2023. |
Pendal |
PDL AU |
30/09/2022 |
4.5 |
The market seems to be pessimistic about the deal. We would expect a deal close by the end of mid/late Q1. |
Cano Health |
CANO US |
29/09/2022 |
8.84 |
We assign a high probability to a firm deal announcement. While activist shareholder and an analyst assume a $14 possible takeout price, with a conservative $12 takeout a riskreward still favors a position long CANO. |
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings |
AAWW US |
28/09/2022 |
95.88 |
The key risk is around debt financing, thus the deal spread is somewhat wide. We would refrain from a position long AAWW at this stage. |
Tegna |
TGNA US |
23/09/2022 |
21.55 |
Update - We continue to consider the deal spread to be somewhat wide. |
Avalara |
AVLR US |
23/09/2022 |
92.25 |
We would go long AVLR as we believe the majority of target shareholders will approve the deal, while we wouldn’t rule out a bump in the bid price if opposing shareholders gain enough support. However, we note that substantial (~30%) downside if the deal breaks on the vote. |
Tyro Payments |
TYR AU |
16/09/2022 |
1.28 |
We expect that Tyro will receive a sweetened offer from either the consortium, another PE, or a strategic bidder. |
GB Group |
GBG LN |
16/09/2022 |
5.94 |
Given the opportunistic timing of GTCR’s interest, there is a fair chance that talks fall apart. However, other PE firms might also turn up as GBG seems to be undervalued. |
Signify Health |
SGFY US |
14/09/2022 |
29.07 |
The current 4.6% deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, assuming a deal close not earlier than mid-2023. We cannot rule out that vertical issues will be deeply scrutinized. |
Brigham Minerals |
MNRL US |
13/09/2022 |
28.05 |
We believe that the 1Q2023 deal close guidance is manageable. |
Link Net TBK |
LINK IJ |
09/09/2022 |
4750 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 9, 2022 |
Countryside Partnerships |
CSP LN |
09/09/2022 |
257.2 |
We see no major obstacles confronting the deal, as both shareholder and CMA approvals should be smooth. The deal spread appears to be wide, however we note that Vistry might be subject to a bid that could lead to a deal break. |
Turquoise Hill Resources |
TRQ CN |
09/09/2022 |
41.23 |
Despite the materially improved bid from Rio Tinto, opposing shareholders have a good chance to derail the transaction. |
RPS Group |
RPS LN |
05/09/2022 |
210 |
RPS is trading above terms on a counterbid/improved bid optionality, however we don’t see a counter bidder coming in, thus we would not take a position long RPS. |
Link Net TBK |
LINK IJ |
02/09/2022 |
4750 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 2, 2022 |
Drilling Co of 1972 |
DRLCO DC |
02/09/2022 |
369.4 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 2, 2022 |
AVEVA |
AVV LN |
02/09/2022 |
2810 |
We would recommend taking a position long AVEVA as we expect a firm deal in the range of GBp2950-3150. |
Micro Focus International |
MCRO LN |
30/08/2022 |
519 |
The deal is expected to close in 1Q2023 due to the numerous regulatory approvals required. |
Nearmap |
NEA AU |
26/08/2022 |
2.1 |
A counterbid from another private equity appears to be unlikely, however cannot be ruled out completely. |
Recipe Unlimited |
RECP CN |
26/08/2022 |
19.85 |
One may consider a position long RECP going into deal announcement |
Darktrace |
DARK LN |
22/08/2022 |
5.26 |
We believe there is good chance for an agreed firm deal with Thoma Bravo. The target might squeeze out an offer above 700p given the attractive valuation and possible counterbid interest. |
OZ Minerals |
OZL AU |
18/08/2022 |
25.84 |
While deal rationale appears to be strong, the gap between parties’ valuation might be too large to overcome. |
Atlantia |
ATL IM |
16/08/2022 |
22.84 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 16, 2022 |
Meggitt |
MGGT LN |
16/08/2022 |
792.8 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 16, 2022 |
ChemoCentryx |
CCXI US |
16/08/2022 |
50.89 |
Based on the minor overlap in AAV treatment, regulatory scrutiny is unlikely to arise. |
Global Blood Therapeutics |
GBT US |
15/08/2022 |
66.75 |
An HSR re-filing might not be ruled out, however a second request appears to be unlikely based on the overlap and the competitive dynamics of the SCD space. Product related developments are not carved out of MAE, however no significant events are expected before deal close. |
iRobot |
IRBT US |
10/08/2022 |
59.5 |
We would not take a position at this time given the regulatory risks, long deal timeline and IRBT’s challenges. |
Ping Identity Holding Corp |
PING US |
09/08/2022 |
28.01 |
Deal risk is limited. We don’t see upside to the offer price thus chances of a counterbid are low. |
Quilter |
QLT LN |
09/08/2022 |
119.5 |
While it is hard to see whether a firm deal will materialize, we see the deal rationale, and would expect an offer price between GBp145-160. |
Infomedia |
IFM AU |
03/08/2022 |
1.59 |
We expect a firm deal announcement with final offer price around AUD1.75-1.85. |
Serica Energy |
SQZ LN |
02/08/2022 |
355.5 |
We don’t see the deal being accretive for bidder shareholders at current terms. Even assuming significant synergies does not change the math. |
Link Net TBK |
LINK IJ |
29/07/2022 |
4650 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 29, 2022 |
1Life Healthcare |
ONEM US |
29/07/2022 |
16.97 |
We believe that the deal might get a second request given the global scrutiny surrounding Big Tech, however it is likely to be approved given the lack of significant antitrust concerns |
Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives |
IEA US |
29/07/2022 |
14.14 |
We don’t expect an extended antitrust review given the competitive and fragmented market. As per our valuation, counterbid is also possible. |
Ironsource |
IS US |
28/07/2022 |
3.87 |
We see the merger as a good opportunity both for Ironsource and Unity shareholders, with some extra risk for Unity, as the leverage gained on a ad-tech asset might be badly timed. |
Meridian Bioscience |
VIVO US |
25/07/2022 |
32.48 |
The deal spread reflects the DOJ investigation-related uncertainty. |
Epizyme |
EPZM US |
21/07/2022 |
1.48 |
We see no major risk for the deal to finalize, but we are cautious about whether the shareholders will receive any CVR, although one may consider buying an almost free option for the possible CVR payouts. |
Resolute Forest Products |
RFP US |
19/07/2022 |
20.22 |
We believe the deal will be approved with remedies after an extended Canadian antitrust review. The likelihood of the CVR payout seems highly uncertain. |
Intertrust NV |
INTER NA |
15/07/2022 |
19.04 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 15, 2022 |
Vivo Energy |
VVO LN |
15/07/2022 |
152.8 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 15, 2022 |
Valora Holding |
VALN SW |
14/07/2022 |
259 |
The deal poses no major risk, therefore probability of close is high at offer terms. A counterbid cannot be ruled out, however we see it as a wild card scenario. |
Autogrill Spa |
AGL IM |
14/07/2022 |
6.3 |
The transfer of Edizione’s 50.3% stake is currently expected to close in Q1 2023, subject to regulatory approvals, while the transaction inclusive of mandatory takeover offer settlement is expected to be completed by Q2 2023. |
|
TWTR US |
12/07/2022 |
32.65 |
We believe that Musk’s arguments are not strong enough to justify deal termination. While Twitter has good chance to enforce specific performance, the court might prefer the parties agreeing in a cut price deal or awarding damages instead of forcing an unwilling buyer to acquire Twitter. |
LifeWorks |
LWRK CN |
08/07/2022 |
31.11 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however timing of the deal and dividend differential changes make a position difficult to evaluate. Low deal risk and significant downside makes us cautious. |
ContourGlobal |
GLO LN |
05/07/2022 |
2.525 |
One might consider going long GLO as deal risk seems to be limited. However, we note the substantial downside. |
Radius Health |
RDUS US |
05/07/2022 |
10.48 |
We see some risk regarding the CVR payment condition and the 50+% tender offer condition too, not ruling out that the bidder consortium will raise the offer. |
Swedish Match |
SWMA SS |
01/07/2022 |
104.55 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 1, 2022 |
Drilling Co of 1972 |
DRLCO DC |
01/07/2022 |
282.6 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 1, 2022 |
Zendesk |
ZEN US |
01/07/2022 |
74 |
The mix of ZEN financing and the involvement of private debt from cash-rich shadow lenders makes us confident that the financing of the takeover will be less exposed to any debt market turmoil |
Emis Group |
EMIS LN |
29/06/2022 |
1864 |
The deal spread does not appear to be attractive considering the estimated timeline, the overlaps between the companies, EMIS’ high market share in certain segments and involvement of sensitive healthcare data. |
Shaftesbury |
SHB LN |
29/06/2022 |
546.5 |
We believe that the key risk to the deal is the SHB shareholder vote. As a standalone company, we see SHB shares trading around 600p, which makes an SHB shareholder approval unlikely. |
Go-Ahead Group |
GOG LN |
29/06/2022 |
15.92 |
We believe there is good chance for a higher offer either from Kelsian or other parties. |
Drilling Co of 1972 |
DRLCO DC |
24/06/2022 |
311 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 24, 2022 |
Duke Realty Corp |
DRE US |
21/06/2022 |
51.44 |
We see limited deal risk around the shareholder votes as the deal rationale appears to be strong. |
Turning Point Therapeutics |
TPTX US |
21/06/2022 |
74.46 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus, we recommend a long position TPTX. We note the substantial downside around $30/TPTX. |
Yancoal Australia |
YAL AU |
16/06/2022 |
5.45 |
We expect Yankuang to sweeten its offer significantly to earn board and shareholder support. |
Biffa |
BIFF LN |
14/06/2022 |
4.08 |
We believe there is good chance for a firm deal either at 445p or more. Based on our valuation, there is upside to the deal price thus target shareholders might be able to squeeze out a higher offer if an agreed firm deal materializes. |
Accell Group |
ACCEL NA |
10/06/2022 |
58 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 10, 2022 |
Yamana Gold |
YRI CN |
10/06/2022 |
6.84 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however shareholder support might be in jeopardy based on the GFI share price reaction. |
Capricorn Energy |
CNE LN |
08/06/2022 |
207.4 |
We believe the key risks are the shareholder votes, especially for the target as the promised synergies and strategic rational might not offset the lack of meaningful deal premium. |
FirstGroup |
FGP LN |
03/06/2022 |
1.37 |
We believe the bidder might need to further increase its bid to secure board support. |
VMWare |
VMW US |
01/06/2022 |
129 |
The deal spread does not appear to be attractive at this point given the long deal timeline. |
ManTech International |
MANT US |
31/05/2022 |
95.4 |
Deal risk is limited. We wouldn’t expect a counterbid as there might have been a sale process before the agreement with Carlyle. |
Siemens Gamesa |
SGRE SM |
31/05/2022 |
17.85 |
Given the actual market conditions and the outlook for Gamesa, we do not expect a bump in the offer price as the substantial downside for the standalone company increases the probability of the shareholders tendering into the offer |
Cerner |
CERN US |
27/05/2022 |
94.68 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 27, 2022 |
HomeServe |
HSV LN |
27/05/2022 |
1163 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the upside optionality to the deal timeline and the limited deal risk. We note the significant downside. |
Swedish Match |
SWMA SS |
24/05/2022 |
101.85 |
We expect the deal to go through as we see no major competition issues. We also see some upside, as PM could raise the offer price under SWMA shareholder pressure. |
Black Knight |
BKI US |
23/05/2022 |
71.81 |
The current spread reflects the lengthy deal timeline and the probability of the deal falling apart. We |
Tower Semiconductor |
TSEM US |
20/05/2022 |
45.69 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022 |
Tegna |
TGNA US |
20/05/2022 |
20.99 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022 |
Columbia Care |
CCHW CN |
20/05/2022 |
2.69 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022 |
Silicon Motion Technology Corp |
SIMO US |
20/05/2022 |
90.67 |
We would not take a position long SIMO at this point given the lengthy timeline. The Chinese approval poses substantial risk to the deal, in our view. |
Alliance Aviation |
AQZ AU |
19/05/2022 |
4.01 |
We believe that the antitrust risk is high. The ACCC’s comments after its 3-year review of Qantas’ original minority stake purchase, the limited number of competitors in the target’s key markets and Alliance’s collaboration agreement with Virgin make us cautious. |
Zynga |
ZNGA US |
20/05/2022 |
8.18 |
Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas May 16, 2022 |
Biohaven |
BHVN US |
16/05/2022 |
141 |
Deal risks appear to be limited. We note that product related adverse events are not carved out of MAE. |
|
TWTR US |
11/05/2022 |
47.26 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Assuming a $30 downside and an early August deal close deal closing probability is around 72%. |
Shaw Communications |
SJR/B CN |
09/05/2022 |
34.87 |
The key question is whether Rogers believes that deal benefits (larger cable business, 5G spectrum) outweigh the competitive threat posed by a stronger Quebecor. We are less convinced, that Rogers would vigorously pursue the deal in case Quebecor is not approved as a buyer before the extended Outside date, July 31. |
Activision |
ATVI US |
06/05/2022 |
77.84 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022 |
Accell Group |
ACCEL NA |
06/05/2022 |
57 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022 |
Atlantia |
ATL IM |
06/05/2022 |
22.85 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022 |
Meggitt |
MGGT LN |
06/05/2022 |
778 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022 |
Link |
LNK AU |
06/05/2022 |
4.96 |
We would take a long position on Link as we think the Woodford issue will not materialize in any public finding from the FCA in the upcoming months, but we would wait the next merger update to assess the possible timeline delay to mitigate the downside risk. |
Ubisoft Entertainment |
UBI FP |
04/05/2022 |
43.01 |
We believe Ubisoft is likely to receive indicative proposals from either PEs or strategic buyers. |
Datto |
MSP US |
04/05/2022 |
34.61 |
The deal spread appears to be wide given the limited deal risk. The number of competitors makes a rigorous antitrust review unlikely. Further, in case of an extended review, the divestiture obligation makes a successful deal close likely. |
South Jersey Industries |
SJI US |
29/04/2022 |
34.42 |
The long timeframe and potential regulatory risks do not justify a position long SJI for now. However, the deal will ultimately be approved in our view, after a thorough review. |
Autogrill Spa |
AGL IM |
27/04/2022 |
6.9 |
The deal has a good chance of approval in our view, given the complementary nature (both in terms of geographic and product category exposure) of the businesses and factors that highlight the competitiveness of the travel retail market and the bidding for concessions: |
Ramsay Health |
RHC AU |
25/04/2022 |
84.27 |
We expect a firm deal to be struck most likely under these conditions, however we cannot rule out a slightly higher offer, as Ramsay’s books may forecast a brighter than expected future as covid restrictions are almost completely gone |
Citrix |
CTXS US |
22/04/2022 |
101.5 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 22, 2022 |
Ferro |
FOE US |
22/04/2022 |
22.01 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 22, 2022 |
|
TWTR US |
22/04/2022 |
47.08 |
Given Musk’s commitment to the deal and the potential upside to the current proposal one may consider a position long TWTR. We note the substantial downside which could be even lower once Musk becomes a seller of TWTR shares. |
Atlantia |
ATL IM |
20/04/2022 |
22.79 |
A counter bid or a higher offer appear unlikely. The deal could close in 3Q2022. |
Intersect ENT |
XENT US |
14/04/2022 |
27.96 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 14, 2022 |
Euronav |
EURN BB |
14/04/2022 |
11.82 |
Update - We are altering our view laid out in our April 13 initiation report. As a successful deal close without CMB’s support is unlikely, there is a risk that parties reconsider their intention to combine or in case they push forward with a firm deal, it might fail on shareholder opposition. We no longer recommend setting up the deal spread. |
Nielsen Holdings |
NLSN US |
14/04/2022 |
27.24 |
Despite WindAcre’s opposition, bidders have a good shot to succeed with takeover offer, in our view. The key question is whether WindAcre manages to convince enough Nielsen shareholders to oppose the transaction. |
Euronav |
EURN BB |
13/04/2022 |
11.82 |
Given the high probability of a firm deal and a tighter spread post announcement, one may consider a long position on the deal spread. |
Neenah |
NP US |
08/04/2022 |
38.23 |
Regulatory risk is limited. Shareholder opposition might arise as the value of SWM’s all-share offer is lower than NP’s current share price. |
Pendal |
PDL AU |
08/04/2022 |
5.27 |
We expect the Pendal Board to reject the offer under these terms, as it is opportunistic and undervalues PDL. As the Fund Management sector needs to consolidate, we expect PPT to sweeten its bid. |
Spirit Airlines |
SAVE US |
07/04/2022 |
26.28 |
We see the SAVE/ULCC merger more viable from a regulatory perspective than a SAVE/JBLU combination. The SAVE board, however might find it hard to turn down JBLU’s offer. |
Columbia Care |
CCHW CN |
05/04/2022 |
3.59 |
The deal spread appears to be wide given the limited downside, therefore would recommend a position long the deal spread. |
Western Areas |
WSA AU |
01/04/2022 |
3.65 |
We think that the bullish outlook of nickel and the pressure put on IGO by the Indepent Expert’s report and WSA shareholders will result in a sweetend offer price. Downside risk seems limited based on WSA valuation. |
LHC Group |
LHCG US |
31/03/2022 |
168 |
We would not be surprised if the deal received a second request given UNH’s size and its acquisition of Landmark Health. |
Anaplan |
PLAN US |
29/03/2022 |
65.13 |
Deal risk is limited. We attach low chance to a counterbid given the fair premium and the support of activist shareholders. |
Neles |
NELES FH |
25/03/2022 |
9.11 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 25, 2022 |
Pearson |
PSON LN |
25/03/2022 |
767 |
A 30%-50% probability of an improved and agreed offer around 900p-950p makes us believe that the current PSON share price offers a favorable risk/reward to enter a position long PSON below ~770p. |
Turquoise Hill Resources |
TRQ CN |
23/03/2022 |
38.24 |
We believe Rio Tinto needs to improve its offer materially to succeed. |
Mediaset Espana |
TL5 SM |
22/03/2022 |
4.59 |
We expect MES shareholders to reject the offer and MFE to return with a sweetened bid to pursue its European expansion plans. TL5 downside appears to be limited at these levels. |
Mandiant |
MNDT US |
18/03/2022 |
22.15 |
We would take a position long MNDT at current stage. |
Avast |
AVST LN |
18/03/2022 |
568 |
Our main concern is that remedies might be difficult to structure. |
CareTech |
CTH LN |
11/03/2022 |
670 |
We see likely that a firm deal announcement will happen before the April 4 deadline with an offer price around GBp725-775. |
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt |
HMHC US |
08/03/2022 |
20.88 |
We believe the limited downside, the short timeframe, and the substantial upside offer a favorable risk-reward for a position long HMHC. |
Nuance |
NUAN US |
04/03/2022 |
55.99 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 4, 2022 |
Z Energy |
ZEL NZ |
04/03/2022 |
3.68 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 4, 2022 |
Oxford Instruments |
OXIG LN |
04/03/2022 |
23 |
We believe a firm deal has strong strategic rationale, as the product portfolios are rather complementary. We see no upside to the offer price; however downside is significant in a no-deal situation. The Ukrainian war might also affect the chances of a firm deal. |
AGL Energy |
AGL AU |
04/03/2022 |
7.42 |
We expect the bidder to come back with an improved offer. We expect a lengthy regulatory review in case a firm deal is reached. |
Tegna |
TGNA US |
02/03/2022 |
22.84 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however the lengthy deal timeline makes us cautious recommending a position long TGNA this time. |
Z Energy |
ZEL NZ |
02/03/2022 |
3.64 |
The key risk is timing, as the NZCC in our view is likely to require upfront divestiture of the Gull business. |
MoneyGram International |
MGI US |
25/02/2022 |
10.75 |
Deal risk appears to be limited. We recommend a position long MGI going into the go-shop period, as the current deal spread offers a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid. |
Tower Semiconductor |
TSEM US |
23/02/2022 |
46.87 |
We expect the deal to receive regulatory approvals given the complementary nature and the limited market share in the foundry business. The key question appears to be timing of the SAMR decision. |
US Ecology |
ECOL US |
22/02/2022 |
47.2 |
Considering a mid 2Q 2022 deal close the deal spread is at the upper end of a plain vanilla transaction. However we cannot completely rule out a rigorous review and some delay in the deal timeline. This makes us refrain from recommending a position long ECOL at current stage. Ultimately we see the |
John Menzies |
MNZS LN |
18/02/2022 |
5.83 |
We believe there is a good chance for a firm deal either at 605p or more |
BioDelivery Sciences |
BDSI US |
16/02/2022 |
5.56 |
The deal spread does not appear to be attractive. An extended review appears unlikely, therefore the deal could close in line with the 1Q guidance. |
Link Net TBK |
LINK IJ |
15/02/2022 |
4330 |
Added to best ideas list in APAC Best Ideas February 15, 2022 |
Zynga |
ZNGA US |
15/02/2022 |
9.05 |
Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 15, 2022 |
Cerner |
CERN US |
15/02/2022 |
92.03 |
Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 15, 2022 |
Vivo Energy |
VVO LN |
15/02/2022 |
133 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas February 15, 2022 |
VIB Vermoegen |
VIH1 GR |
11/02/2022 |
52.8 |
We don’t see significant chance for a higher offer from DIC. The effective minimum acceptance condition of 18.5% is quite low and waivable. VIB appears to be overvalued compared to its peers and DIC faces constraints to improve its bid (leverage, FFO accretion). |
Cedar Fair |
FUN US |
11/02/2022 |
59.71 |
Reaching a firm deal might be difficult and a hostile offer seems unlikely given FUN’s strong takeover defenses. We note the substantial upside above $75. Downside in a no deal situation is around $50. |
Spirit Airlines |
SAVE US |
11/02/2022 |
27.3 |
The merger is likely to face antitrust scrutiny in the US. The merging parties compete in several overlapping city-pairs, where they would have ability and incentive to raise prices after the combination. |
Citrix |
CTXS US |
04/02/2022 |
102.9 |
Deal risks appear to be limited, however we find the current spread unattractive. |
Link Net TBK |
LINK IJ |
02/02/2022 |
4430 |
We believe the transaction will receive the necessary approvals in the expected timeline, offering attractive upside potential. |
Neo Lithium |
NLC CN |
28/02/2022 |
6.49 |
Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas January 28, 2022 |
|
|
|
|
|
Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest). As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level. |
All materials published by Chain Bridge Research, f/k/a Independent European Research, LLC, are intended for use only by professional, institutional, buy-side investors. Use by the general investing public is prohibited. The information and analysis contained in these publications are copyrighted and may not be duplicated or redistributed for any reason. Chain Bridge Research reserves the right to refuse any subscription request based upon the above criteria. Companies and individuals residing in Hungary, and affiliates of firms based in Hungary are prohibited from subscribing to the services of Chain Bridge Research.
Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed, in a Chain Bridge report constitutes a solicitation by Chain Bridge for the purchase or the sale of securities. Chain Bridge reports do not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors. The information set forth in the reports was obtained from publicly available sources that we believe to be reliable. While due care is taken by Chain Bridge in compiling the data and in forming its opinions, Chain Bridge gives no warranty, express or implied, and it does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
The reports published by Chain Bridge intend to provide professional, institutional, buy-side investors with a view regarding the various risks and critical factors impacting the completion of certain mergers and acquisitions. Therefore, the opinions expressed do not fit with traditional buy, sell, and hold ratings.