Chain Bridge Research | Coverage List

Coverage List

Stock	Ticker	Date Published	Market Price on Publication Date	Recommendation
FirstGroup	FGP LN	03/06/2022	1.37	We believe the bidder might need to further increase its bid to secure board support.
VMWare	VMW US	01/06/2022	129	The deal spread does not appear to be attractive at this point given the long deal timeline.
ManTech International	MANT US	31/05/2022	95.4	Deal risk is limited. We wouldn’t expect a counterbid as there might have been a sale process before the agreement with Carlyle.
Siemens Gamesa	SGRE SM	31/05/2022	17.85	Given the actual market conditions and the outlook for Gamesa, we do not expect a bump in the offer price as the substantial downside for the standalone company increases the probability of the shareholders tendering into the offer
Cerner	CERN US	27/05/2022	94.68	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 27, 2022
HomeServe	HSV LN	27/05/2022	1163	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the upside optionality to the deal timeline and the limited deal risk. We note the significant downside.
Swedish Match	SWMA SS	24/05/2022	101.85	We expect the deal to go through as we see no major competition issues. We also see some upside, as PM could raise the offer price under SWMA shareholder pressure.
Black Knight	BKI US	23/05/2022	71.81	The current spread reflects the lengthy deal timeline and the probability of the deal falling apart. We also note that there is no litigation obligation and divestiture obligation is limited to BKI assets.
Tower Semiconductor	TSEM US	20/05/2022	45.69	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022
Tegna	TGNA US	20/05/2022	20.99	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022
Columbia Care	CCHW CN	20/05/2022	2.69	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022
Silicon Motion Technology Corp	SIMO US	20/05/2022	90.67	We would not take a position long SIMO at this point given the lengthy timeline. The Chinese approval poses substantial risk to the deal, in our view.
Alliance Aviation	AQZ AU	19/05/2022	4.01	We believe that the antitrust risk is high. The ACCC’s comments after its 3-year review of Qantas’ original minority stake purchase, the limited number of competitors in the target’s key markets and Alliance’s collaboration agreement with Virgin make us cautious.
Zynga	ZNGA US	20/05/2022	8.18	Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas May 16, 2022
Biohaven	BHVN US	16/05/2022	141	Deal risks appear to be limited. We note that product related adverse events are not carved out of MAE.
Twitter	TWTR US	11/05/2022	47.26	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Assuming a $30 downside and an early August deal close deal closing probability is around 72%.
Shaw Communications	SJR/B CN	09/05/2022	34.87	The key question is whether Rogers believes that deal benefits (larger cable business, 5G spectrum) outweigh the competitive threat posed by a stronger Quebecor. We are less convinced, that Rogers would vigorously pursue the deal in case Quebecor is not approved as a buyer before the extended Outside date, July 31.
Activision	ATVI US	06/05/2022	77.84	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022
Accel Group	ACCEL NA	06/05/2022	57	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022
Atlantia	ATL IM	06/05/2022	22.85	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022
Meggitt	MGGT LN	06/05/2022	778	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022
Link	LNK AU	06/05/2022	4.96	We would take a long position on Link as we think the Woodford issue will not materialize in any public finding from the FCA in the upcoming months, but we would wait the next merger update to assess the possible timeline delay to mitigate the downside risk.
Ubisoft Entertainment	UBI FP	04/05/2022	43.01	We believe Ubisoft is likely to receive indicative proposals from either PEs or strategic buyers.
Datto	MSP US	04/05/2022	34.61	The deal spread appears to be wide given the limited deal risk. The number of competitors makes a rigorous antitrust review unlikely. Further, in case of an extended review, the divestiture obligation makes a successful deal close likely.
South Jersey Industries	SJI US	29/04/2022	34.42	The long timeframe and potential regulatory risks do not justify a position long SJI for now. However, the deal will ultimately be approved in our view, after a thorough review.
Autogrill Spa	AGL IM	27/04/2022	6.9	The deal has a good chance of approval in our view, given the complementary nature (both in terms of geographic and product category exposure) of the businesses and factors that highlight the competitiveness of the travel retail market and the bidding for concessions:
Ramsay Health	RHC AU	25/04/2022	84.27	We expect a firm deal to be struck most likely under these conditions, however we cannot rule out a slightly higher offer, as Ramsay’s books may forecast a brighter than expected future as covid restrictions are almost completely gone
Citrix	CTXS US	22/04/2022	101.5	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 22, 2022
Ferro	FOE US	22/04/2022	22.01	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 22, 2022
Twitter	TWTR US	22/04/2022	47.08	Given Musk’s commitment to the deal and the potential upside to the current proposal one may consider a position long TWTR. We note the substantial downside which could be even lower once Musk becomes a seller of TWTR shares.
Atlantia	ATL IM	20/04/2022	22.79	A counter bid or a higher offer appear unlikely. The deal could close in 3Q2022.
Intersect ENT	XENT US	14/04/2022	27.96	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 14, 2022
Euronav	EURN BB	14/04/2022	11.82	Update - We are altering our view laid out in our April 13 initiation report. As a successful deal close without CMB’s support is unlikely, there is a risk that parties reconsider their intention to combine or in case they push forward with a firm deal, it might fail on shareholder opposition. We no longer recommend setting up the deal spread.
Nielsen Holdings	NLSN US	14/04/2022	27.24	Despite WindAcre’s opposition, bidders have a good shot to succeed with takeover offer, in our view. The key question is whether WindAcre manages to convince enough Nielsen shareholders to oppose the transaction.
Euronav	EURN BB	13/04/2022	11.82	Given the high probability of a firm deal and a tighter spread post announcement, one may consider a long position on the deal spread.
Neenah	NP US	08/04/2022	38.23	Regulatory risk is limited. Shareholder opposition might arise as the value of SWM’s all-share offer is lower than NP’s current share price.
Pendal	PDL AU	08/04/2022	5.27	We expect the Pendal Board to reject the offer under these terms, as it is opportunistic and undervalues PDL. As the Fund Management sector needs to consolidate, we expect PPT to sweeten its bid.
Spirit Airlines	SAVE US	07/04/2022	26.28	We see the SAVE/ULCC merger more viable from a regulatory perspective than a SAVE/JBLU combination. The SAVE board, however might find it hard to turn down JBLU’s offer.
Columbia Care	CCHW CN	05/04/2022	3.59	The deal spread appears to be wide given the limited downside, therefore would recommend a position long the deal spread.
Western Areas	WSA AU	01/04/2022	3.65	We think that the bullish outlook of nickel and the pressure put on IGO by the Indepent Expert’s report and WSA shareholders will result in a sweetend offer price. Downside risk seems limited based on WSA valuation.
LHC Group	LHCG US	31/03/2022	168	We would not be surprised if the deal received a second request given UNH’s size and its acquisition of Landmark Health.
Anaplan	PLAN US	29/03/2022	65.13	Deal risk is limited. We attach low chance to a counterbid given the fair premium and the support of activist shareholders.
Neles	NELES FH	25/03/2022	9.11	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 25, 2022
Pearson	PSON LN	25/03/2022	767	A 30%-50% probability of an improved and agreed offer around 900p-950p makes us believe that the current PSON share price offers a favorable risk/reward to enter a position long PSON below ~770p.
Turquoise Hill Resources	TRQ CN	23/03/2022	38.24	We believe Rio Tinto needs to improve its offer materially to succeed.
Mediaset Espana	TL5 SM	22/03/2022	4.59	We expect MES shareholders to reject the offer and MFE to return with a sweetened bid to pursue its European expansion plans. TL5 downside appears to be limited at these levels.
Mandiant	MNDT US	18/03/2022	22.15	We would take a position long MNDT at current stage.
Avast	AVST LN	18/03/2022	568	Our main concern is that remedies might be difficult to structure.
CareTech	CTH LN	11/03/2022	670	We see likely that a firm deal announcement will happen before the April 4 deadline with an offer price around GBp725-775.
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt	HMHC US	08/03/2022	20.88	We believe the limited downside, the short timeframe, and the substantial upside offer a favorable risk-reward for a position long HMHC.
Nuance	NUAN US	04/03/2022	55.99	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 4, 2022
Z Energy	ZEL NZ	04/03/2022	3.68	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 4, 2022
Oxford Instruments	OXIG LN	04/03/2022	23	We believe a firm deal has strong strategic rationale, as the product portfolios are rather complementary. We see no upside to the offer price; however downside is significant in a no-deal situation. The Ukrainian war might also affect the chances of a firm deal.
AGL Energy	AGL AU	04/03/2022	7.42	We expect the bidder to come back with an improved offer. We expect a lengthy regulatory review in case a firm deal is reached.
Tegna	TGNA US	02/03/2022	22.84	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however the lengthy deal timeline makes us cautious recommending a position long TGNA this time.
Z Energy	ZEL NZ	02/03/2022	3.64	The key risk is timing, as the NZCC in our view is likely to require upfront divestiture of the Gull business.
MoneyGram International	MGI US	25/02/2022	10.75	Deal risk appears to be limited. We recommend a position long MGI going into the go-shop period, as the current deal spread offers a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid.
Tower Semiconductor	TSEM US	23/02/2022	46.87	We expect the deal to receive regulatory approvals given the complementary nature and the limited market share in the foundry business. The key question appears to be timing of the SAMR decision.
US Ecology	ECOL US	22/02/2022	47.2	Considering a mid 2Q 2022 deal close the deal spread is at the upper end of a plain vanilla transaction. However we cannot completely rule out a rigorous review and some delay in the deal timeline. This makes us refrain from recommending a position long ECOL at current stage. Ultimately we see the deal being closed.
John Menzies	MNZS LN	18/02/2022	5.83	We believe there is a good chance for a firm deal either at 605p or more
BioDelivery Sciences	BDSI US	16/02/2022	5.56	The deal spread does not appear to be attractive. An extended review appears unlikely, therefore the deal could close in line with the 1Q guidance.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	15/02/2022	4330	Added to best ideas list in APAC Best Ideas February 15, 2022
Zynga	ZNGA US	15/02/2022	9.05	Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 15, 2022
Cerner	CERN US	15/02/2022	92.03	Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 15, 2022
Vivo Energy	VVO LN	15/02/2022	133	Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas February 15, 2022
VIB Vermoegen	VIH1 GR	11/02/2022	52.8	We don’t see significant chance for a higher offer from DIC. The effective minimum acceptance condition of 18.5% is quite low and waivable. VIB appears to be overvalued compared to its peers and DIC faces constraints to improve its bid (leverage, FFO accretion).
Cedar Fair	FUN US	11/02/2022	59.71	Reaching a firm deal might be difficult and a hostile offer seems unlikely given FUN’s strong takeover defenses. We note the substantial upside above $75. Downside in a no deal situation is around $50.
Spirit Airlines	SAVE US	11/02/2022	27.3	The merger is likely to face antitrust scrutiny in the US. The merging parties compete in several overlapping city-pairs, where they would have ability and incentive to raise prices after the combination.
Citrix	CTXS US	04/02/2022	102.9	Deal risks appear to be limited, however we find the current spread unattractive.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	02/02/2022	4430	We believe the transaction will receive the necessary approvals in the expected timeline, offering attractive upside potential.
Neo Lithium	NLC CN	28/02/2022	6.49	Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas January 28, 2022
Accel Group	ACCEL NA	22/01/2022	57.5	Given that deal risks are limited, one may consider a position long ACCEL on a possible counterbid. However we see this as a wild card scenario.
Bluerock Residential Growth REIT	BRG US	27/01/2022	26.64	We believe deal risks are limited. As per our valuation, the share consideration from the spin-off may be worth more than what is implied in the current market price of BRG.
Zogenix	ZGNX US	25/01/2022	25.93	We expect that the regulatory review will be short given we see no serious antitrust issues. The current market price appears to offer a cheap option on the $2 CVR, which seems to have a high likelihood to be paid out.
Activision	ATVI US	21/01/2022	82.15	We would not take a position at this time as the deal review will drag into 2023
Clinigen	CLIN LN	21/01/2022	907	The probability of an improved offer or a counterbid is low. However, considering the limited deal risk the deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. We recommend a position long CLIN.
Aspire Global	ASPIRE SS	20/01/2022	107.8	The deal seems to be sealed as there is major cross-ownership between the companies. Due to the minimal deal risk, the deal spread appears to be attractive, but we note that Aspire Global was not very liquid prior to deal announcement.
Ferro	FOE US	18/01/2022	21.65	Added to best ideas list in Best Ideas January 18, 2022
Siltronic	WAF GY	18/01/2022	127	Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas January 18, 2022
Link	LNK AU	18/01/2022	5.54	We see upside potential in the offer price, as Link’s PEXA stake appreciated since deal announcement. On the other hand, Link has been in sale talks for more than a year and has not traded at the offer price for almost 2 years.
Apria	APR US	14/01/2022	37.29	We expect the deal to close in April / early May 2022.
Zynga	ZNGA US	14/01/2022	9.06	The deal spread appears to be wide. We recommend a position long ZNGA going into the go-shop period as a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid.
Drilling Co of 1972	DRLCO DC	07/01/2022	267.8	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 7, 2022
Neo Lithium	NLC CN	07/01/2022	6.32	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 7, 2022
Ferro	FOE US	07/01/2022	21.8	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 7, 2022
IHS Markit	INFO US	07/01/2022	126	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 7, 2022
Ortho Clinical Diagnostics	OCDX US	07/01/2022	20.21	Despite the low-ball offer, target shareholder support seems to be secured as Carlyle irrevocably undertaken to vote in favour of the deal.
Verso	VRS US	07/01/2022	26.86	Deal risk is limited. We see a low probability of a counterbid and we do not recommend a position long VRS at current stage.
Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust	MAGIC SP	06/01/2022	1.09	While there might be long term rationale in broadening MCT’s investment mandate, we see risks to shareholder approval on both sides
Terminix	TMX US	23/12/2021	44.01	We see risks to the deal given the lack of competition on the national level post-merger. The divestiture cap might not be sufficient and finding a viable buyer for divestitures might prove difficult.
Nobina	NOBINA SS	22/12/2021	106.1	The key risk appears to be the 90% minimum acceptance which can be waived, but as the bidder intends to delist Nobina, it might not be satisfied with a smaller acceptance rate. We note that the SEK 108 price represents a more than 20% premium to Nobina’s all-time high price.
Cerner	CERN US	22/12/2021	90.67	We expect the deal to receive approvals and close in late 1H2022 or early 2H2022.
Akka Technologies	AKA FP	17/12/2021	48.38	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 17, 2021
GCP Applied Technologies	GCP US	17/12/2021	31.82	The deal spread is tight. Given the several product overlaps, we expect extended antitrust reviews, especially in the US.
Soliton	SOLY US	15/12/2021	22.58	Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas December 15, 2021
Intertrust NV	INTER NA	15/12/2021	19.62	We see no major issues regarding regulatory approvals, but the process will take time. One might, however go long Intertrust with a view of a wild-card offer from the party that has offered EU22 during the process.
Mimecast	MIME US	15/12/2021	79.46	Currently we see a superior offer as a wild card scenario however the spread and the low deal risk make us recommend a position long MIME on counterbid optionality.
Arena Pharmaceuticals	ARNA US	14/12/2021	91.6	We would not take a position at this time given the likely extended regulatory review and the significant downside.
Z Energy	ZEL NZ	10/12/2021	3.49	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 10, 2021
Intersect ENT	XENT US	10/12/2021	27.04	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 10, 2021
Momentive Global	MNTV US	08/12/2021	21.6	The deal is likely to fail. Given our standalone estimations and current share price we recommend a position long ZEN however we would not, or not fully hedge with MNTV short given the counterbid probability.
True Corp	TRUE TB	07/12/2021	43.75	Despite the obvious antitrust issues, the deal might be approved after positive comments from Thai regulators.
Sportsman's Warehouse	SPWH US	03/12/2021	13.61	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 3, 2021
Aareal Bank	ARL GR	01/12/2021	28.96	The deal spread is tight. Given the shareholder opposition, one might speculate on a better offer, however, downside is significant in our view.
Distell	DGH SJ	01/12/2021	160.96	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however the lengthy deal review, potential shareholder opposition and antitrust hurdles (no clear visibility on divestiture commitments) makes us refrain recommending a position long Distell.
Vivo Energy	VVO LN	30/11/2021	131.6	We expect the deal to close in late 2Q or early 3Q.
Vonage	VG US	24/11/2021	20.655	The deal spread does not appear to be attractive.
Drilling Co of 1972	DRLCO DC	23/11/2021	261.2	We believe regulators will approve the deal given the fragmented nature of the offshore drilling industry. We expect shareholders to support the transaction as well.
Ferro	FOE US	19/11/2021	21.38	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 19, 2021
Nuance Communications	NUAN US	19/11/2021	55.25	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 19, 2021
Praemium	PPS AU	18/11/2021	1.53	We expect NWL to make an improved offer and see up to 20% upside, and and 15-20% downside in case no firm deal materializes.
McAfee	MCFE US	17/11/2021	25.59	There is a 45 day go-shop period. As deal risk and downside is limited we recommend a position long MCFE. However, we note that counterbid probability is low given the lack of strategic bidders and PE bidders facing leverage hurdles.
Afterpay	APT AU	12/11/2021	116.42	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 12, 2021
NeoPhotonics	NPTN US	11/11/2021	15.6	The deal spread appears to be tight given the long timeline. A counter bid appears less likely after both IIVI and MKSI made acquisitions over the year.
Rogers Corp	ROG US	11/11/2021	269.19	We expect an extended antitrust review given the complex nature of the overlapping products.
Daily Mail	DMGT LN	10/11/2021	1130	The deal spread of 7.6% appears to be wide given the limited downside around 1000p.
Ausnutria	1717 HK	09/11/2021	9.42	We believe that the deal will receive regulatory approvals, however there are risks to the new share issue which is a condition to the stake purchase and the mandatory offer.
RR Donnelley & Sons	RRD US	03/11/2021	9.11	We believe that Chatham’s improved proposal is likely to be superior. We cannot rule out multiple rounds of bids given the ample of upside based on our LBO calculation
PAE	PAE US	29/10/2021	9.91	We would not rule out a refiling requirement or a second request given parties are close competitors. Most peers have limited room to make an all cash counter bid.
Senex	SXY AU	29/10/2021	4.44	The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be attractive
Playtech	Ptech LN	27/10/2021	6.74	We believe shareholders will approve the deal given the fair offer
Siltronic	WAF GY	25/21/2021	133.95	We continue to recommend a position long WAF on the tendered line, given that the downside is limited in a standalone case and any other scenario (end date extension with or without compensation, deal close before the end date) offers substantial upside.
Sportsman's Warehouse	SPWH US	22/10/2021	17.66	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 22, 2021
Entra ASA	ENTRA NO	20/10/2021	210.2	We believe there is a good chance that sooner or later Castellum will make a move for Entra.
Z Energy	ZEL NZ	20/10/2021	3.63	We believe that the deal will receive regulatory approvals, however there are risks to timing.
Neo Lithium	NLC CN	19/10/2021	6.26	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the limited downside and a low probability of the deal being blocked.
Sportsman's Warehouse	SPWH US	15/10/2021	17.75	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 15, 2021
Tronox	TROX US	12/10/2021	24.89	The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be attractive.
Forterra	FRTA US	08/10/2021	23.74	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 8, 2021
Acceleron	XLRN US	08/10/2021	175.29	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Although delays cannot completely be ruled out we see some upside optionality in a counterbid situation. One may consider a position long XLRN.
Blue Prism Group	PRSM LN	08/10/2021	11.33	Despite the low-ball offer and shareholder revolt, we see limited chance for a bump as the standalone prospect of the company seems not too bright.
Shaw Communications	SJR/B CN	06/10/2021	38.14	We believe that the deal will receive approval, however remedies might be required (behavioral and/or local divestitures to reduce BDU market share)
Kirkland Lake Gold	KL CN	01/10/2021	52.76	We don’t expect a counterbid, therefore we believe shareholders will vote in favour of the deal
Smartgroup	SIG AU	30/09/2021	9.5	The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be attractive at the current market price.
Forterra	FRTA US	24/09/2021	23.51	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 24, 2021
Stagecoach	SGC LN	24/09/2021	84.05	We see risk of a longer regulatory review and possible remedies in case a firm deal is agreed.
AusNet Services	AST AU	24/09/2021	2.55	The deal spread is tight. In case of a firm bid, we believe the key risk is the shareholder approval. However, regulatory scrutiny or antitrust concerns will pose a risk to the deal as well.
Itamar Medical	ITMR IT	24/09/2021	322.3	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide but substantial downside makes us refrain from recommending a position long IMTR
Kadmon	KDMN US	17/09/2021	8.8	Given that Belumonsudil study data is expected before deal close and any issues around the product are not carved out of MAE and the risk of a longer timeline (second request or standard form letter form the FTC), we would not recommend any position at this stage.
Oil Search	OSH AU	16/09/2021	3.9	We believe the key risk is the possible regulatory scrutiny in Papua New Guinea. Santos and Oil Search will likely have to make serious commitments to PNG.
Afterpay	APT AU	15/09/2021	123.62	Added to best ideas list in APAC Best Ideas September 15, 2021
Neles	NELES FH	15/09/2021	12.545	Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas September 15, 2021
Siltronic	WAF1 GY	15/09/2021	138	Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas September 15, 2021
Cerved	CERV IM	10/09/2021	10.2	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 10, 2021
Hill-Rom	HRC US	10/09/2021	151,68	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, however we note that the China review might take a while. A refiling for HSR approval cannot be ruled out; however a second request has a very limited chance in our view.
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum	SOBI SS	10/09/2021	242,1	Support from the board and anchor shareholders, the decent premium and recent regulatory setbacks decrease the likelihood of an upside scenario. However given the high acceptance condition, the lack of alternative transaction structures to get to 100% and comments from AP4 , a position long SOBI slightly above the offer price might be attractive in our view.
Ferro Corp	FOE US	08/09/2021	21.05	We believe regulators will approve the deal after a thorough review with a high possibility of remedies in some niche segments.
Enable Midstream Partners	ENBL US	03/09/2021	8.16	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021
Forterra	FRTA US	03/09/2021	23.69	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021
Shaw Communications	SJR/B CN	03/09/2021	37.25	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021
Akka Technologies	AKA FP	03/09/2021	47.2	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021
Translate Bio	TBIO US	03/09/2021	37.65	We don’t expect a second request, however the deal spread appears to be too tight at this point for a long TBIO. One might, however bet on an unlikely second request with a position short in the target going into the expiry of the HSR waiting period.
Five9	FIVN US	03/09/2021	167.5	At current stage we recommend a position long FIVN going into the shareholder vote, given the limited downside and some optionality for an improved offer.
Kansas City Southern	KSU US	01/09/2021	280.67	A long position KSU appears to be a safe bet until at least September 12 (the expiry of CP’s offer), at the current 2.7% spread.
Trillium Therapeutics	TRIL CN	31/08/2021	17.29	We see limited risk regarding antitrust scrutiny despite Pfizer’s overlapping development asset. Based on that, we would go long TRIL.
Maxim	MXIM US	27/08/2021	103.14	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 27, 2021
Soliton	SOLY US	27/08/2021	20.72	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 27, 2021
Soliton	SOLY US	27/08/2021	20.72	We estimate limited downside of around $19.50 and a deal close in early 2022. The implied deal closing probability is approximately 40%. Based on that, we believe that the current spread of 8.3% is somewhat wide thus, we recommend a SOLY long.
Hella	HLE GR	23/08/2021	60.84	We believe there is no upside to the deal terms as there is no minimum acceptance and counterbid is unlikely. Given the complementary nature of the product portfolios, we don’t see antitrust issues.
Sportsman's Warehouse	SPWH US	20/08/2021	17.65	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 20, 2021
Ultra Electronics	ULE LN	20/08/2021	3,372	Parties’ 1Q deal close expectation might be optimistic though as the Ultra deal might get more scrutiny compared to earlier acquisitions of UK defense companies
Sanderson Farms	SAFM US	16/08/2021	195.25	The deal spread is not attractive in our view given the long regulatory timeline.
Afterpay	APT AU	13/08/2021	132.01	We believe that shareholders will vote in favour of the merger as the deal rationale to merge appears to be strong.
Intersect Ent	XENT US	10/08/2021	27.83	We don’t see serious regulatory risks with regard to the transaction.
Inter Pipeline	IPL CN	06/08/2021	19.96	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 6, 2021
Meggitt	MGGT LN	06/08/2021	7.25	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, but the lengthy deal review makes us reluctant to enter a position long MGGT at this point.
Akka Technologies	AKA FP	29/07/2021	47.02	We expect no extended antitrust reviews and a deal timeline of around 10 months.
Veoneer	VNE US	27/07/2021	31.36	We attach low probability to a counter bid given VNE said it had been in discussion with other parties before the agreement with MGA.
PPD	PPD US	23/07/2021	46.16	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 23, 2021
Slack Technologies	WORK US	23/07/2021	45.2	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 23, 2021
Sumo Group	SUMO LN	23/07/2021	4.99	We believe the key risk is the CFIUS approval. Regulatory scrutiny might emerge from the handling of American users’ data, however if needed, the US business can be divested in order to close the deal.
Five9	FIVN US	22/07/2021	189.80	The current spread does not compensate for the lengthy deal timeline.
Avast	AVST LN	20/07/2021	598.00	As per our valuation, a deal appears to be feasible even at around GBP6.50
Stamps.com	STMP US	16/07/2021	5,908	We would recommend a position long going into the go-shop period as a cheap bet on a counterbid. Based on our LBO valuation, we see room for a higher offer.
Willis Towers Watson	WLTW US	15/07/2021	221.91	Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas July 15, 2021
Cerved	CERV IM	15/07/2021	9.9	Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas July 15, 2021
Alexion	ALXN US	15/07/2021	180.51	Removed from best ideas list in Euro/Americas Best Ideas July 15, 2021
Sydney Airport	SYD AU	15/07/2021	7.81	Given that standpoints on valuation appear to be far away and considering the substantial downside we do not recommend taking a position long SYD at current stage.
Neles	NELES FH	12/07/2021	13.49	We believe there is no upside to the deal terms. Given Valmet’s ~30% stake in Neles, counterbid is very unlikely.
WM Morrison	MRW LN	09/07/2021	266	We see limited upside for counterbidders up to 260p-270p. Based on that we do not recommend long MRW above 250p
Grandvision	GVNV NA	02/07/2021	28.25	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 2, 2021
UDG Healthcare	UDG LN	02/07/2021	1068	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 2, 2021
QAD	QADA	02/07/2021	86.44	We believe shareholders will vote in favour of the merger given the fair offer. A counter bid is unlikely as the Lopker family has a huge influence on the company and Pamela Lopker will retain a significant ownership interest after the deal and will continue to serve on the QAD Board.
Kindred Biosciences	KIN US	30/06/2021	9.16	We expect the deal to close in September 2021. An extended review appears to be unlikely.
Lydall	LDL US	29/06/2021	60.9	We believe an extended antitrust review is unlikely. Other than a few overlaps, the product portfolios can be seen complementary, in our view.
Grandvision	GVNV NA	25/06/2021	24.85	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 25, 2021
WM Morrison	MRW LN	25/06/2021	234	We believe that probability of a firm deal and potential upside compensates the downside risk.
Raven Industries	RAVN US	25/06/2021	57.65	The deal spread does not appear to be attractive given the long deal timeline and possible vertical issues with the merger. Also, as per the merger call there was a competitive sale process before deal announcement.
Solarpack SA	SPK SM	21/06/2021	26.2	The deal spread is tight. Given EQT can waive the 75%+1 minimum acceptance and has 50%+1 by the irrevocable undertakings, we see no upside to the deal terms.
Willis Towers Watson	WLTW US	18/06/2021	225.2	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 18, 2021
Deutsche Wohnen	DWNI GY	18/06/2021	51.48	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 18, 2021
Cloudera	CLDR US	18/06/2021	15.78	The deal spread and an improved bid opportunity favor a position long CLDR.
Altium	ALU AU	18/06/2021	34.71	Autodesk’s proposal shows their intention to expand their manufacturing software segment, which is highly competitive. Altium perfectly fits in Autodesk’s portfolio. The key risk of the transaction is the board and shareholder support from Altium’s side. Based on the current announcements, they are open to sell the company, in case Autodesk offers an acceptable price. In our view Altium has to increase the offer, if they would like to proceed with the deal.
Magnachip Semiconductor	MX US	17/06/2021	24.07	We believe that the CFIUS interim order and a possible block might offer Korea the chance to avoid having to make a decision on this delicate deal.
UDG Healthcare	UDG LN	15/06/2021	1044	Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas June 15, 2021
Deutsche Wohnen	DWNI GY	15/06/2021	51.8	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas June 15, 2021
Great Canadian Gaming	GC CN	11/06/2021	44.65	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 11, 2021
Spire Healthcare	SPI LN	09/06/2021	2.45	Based on deal valuation and Mediclinic’s support (as long as there is no counter bid more than 10% higher than the current one) we believe that the deal will go through as it is.
Welbilt Update	WBT US	09/06/2021	24.34	We would not take a position as WBT is already trading above Ali’s proposal and a counterbid from MIDD might be limited to around $24-$26.
Grandvision	GVNV NA	04/06/2021	27.25	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 4, 2021
Inter Pipeline	IPL CN	04/06/2021	20.27	Brookfield’s proposal appears to be superior at this moment as it is worth more, has a significant cash component and could close imminently. We don’t expect that this is Pembina’s best offer. They probably expected Brookfield to improve their bid, so we see at least one more improvement from Pembina.
UDG Healthcare	UDG LN	03/06/2021	1058	We believe that the strong deal rationale favors an improved offer, thus we would recommend a position long UDG.
Recticel	REC BB	02/06/2021	14.66	We believe Greiner needs to improve its bid to reach the 50%+1 threshold. Antitrust concerns might arise around the combined market share in the EU. Therefore, a lengthy regulatory review might not be ruled out.
Alexion	ALXN US	28/05/2021	176.55	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 28, 2021
Deutsche Wohnen	DWNI GY	28/05/2021	52.24	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 28, 2021
IHS Markit	INFO US	28/05/2021	105.31	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 28, 2021
Deutsche Wohnen	DWNI GY	28/05/2021	52.26	The deal spread appears to be favorable to take a position long DWNI.
Crown Resorts	CWN AU	28/05/2021	12.94	We would not take a position in CWN at this time due to its valuation and the ongoing regulatory processes.
Core-Mark	CORE US	26/05/2021	45.11	We don’t see nationwide issues and the divestiture cap is sizeable enough to tackle local issues if they arise.
Monmouth Real Estate	MNR US	25/05/2021	19	We believe shareholders will approve the deal if no superior offer emerges. Blackwells failed to make an improved offer in recent months and the board explored strategic alternatives, which appears to limit upside potential.
Welbilt	WBT US	25/05/2021	19.59	We would not take a position at this time given the long deal timeline and the risk of a counter bid for either party before the shareholder votes.
Klovern	KLOVB SS	21/05/2021	16.37	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 1, 2021
Enable Midstream Partners	ENBL US	19/05/2021	8.54	We don’t expect significant divestitures to be required by regulators. We expect the deal to close in 4Q2021.
PRA Health	PRAH US	17/05/2021	171.9	Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas May 17, 2021
Meggitt	MGGT LN	14/05/2021	480.4	We would not take a position as there has not been any official announcement about the approach. However, if the deal materializes, we believe regulatory risk is manageable.
KPN NV	KPN NA	13/05/2021	2.781	It appears that price is not the only concern and given the lack of willingness to sell both from KPN board/management and the Dutch government the probability of a firm deal is low. We would not recommend a position long KPN above its fair value.
IHH Healthcare	IHH MK	13/05/2021	5.45	N/A
At Home Group	HOME US	11/05/2021	36.3	We would not go long HOME as we see little upside based on our LBO calculations.
Tilt Renewables	TLT NZ	07/05/2021	8	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 7, 2021
Equiniti Group	EQN LN	06/05/2021	1.74	We believe there is a good chance for a firm deal. Based on our LBO model we see upside to the deal price.
Intouch Holdings	INTUCH TB	04/05/2021	63.75	We would not take a position at this point as we see limited upside potential
Cerved	CERV IM	04/05/2021	9.7	We recommend a position long CERV close to the ION offer price as cheap option for a bump to the offer.

Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest). As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level.

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