Stock |
Ticker |
Date Published |
Market Price on Publication Date |
Recommendation |
FirstGroup |
FGP LN |
03/06/2022 |
1.37 |
We believe the bidder might need to further increase its bid to secure board support. |
VMWare |
VMW US |
01/06/2022 |
129 |
The deal spread does not appear to be attractive at this point given the long deal timeline. |
ManTech International |
MANT US |
31/05/2022 |
95.4 |
Deal risk is limited. We wouldn’t expect a counterbid as there might have been a sale process before the agreement with Carlyle. |
Siemens Gamesa |
SGRE SM |
31/05/2022 |
17.85 |
Given the actual market conditions and the outlook for Gamesa, we do not expect a bump in the offer price as the substantial downside for the standalone company increases the probability of the shareholders tendering into the offer |
Cerner |
CERN US |
27/05/2022 |
94.68 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 27, 2022 |
HomeServe |
HSV LN |
27/05/2022 |
1163 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the upside optionality to the deal timeline and the limited deal risk. We note the significant downside. |
Swedish Match |
SWMA SS |
24/05/2022 |
101.85 |
We expect the deal to go through as we see no major competition issues. We also see some upside, as PM could raise the offer price under SWMA shareholder pressure. |
Black Knight |
BKI US |
23/05/2022 |
71.81 |
The current spread reflects the lengthy deal timeline and the probability of the deal falling apart. We |
Tower Semiconductor |
TSEM US |
20/05/2022 |
45.69 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022 |
Tegna |
TGNA US |
20/05/2022 |
20.99 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022 |
Columbia Care |
CCHW CN |
20/05/2022 |
2.69 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022 |
Silicon Motion Technology Corp |
SIMO US |
20/05/2022 |
90.67 |
We would not take a position long SIMO at this point given the lengthy timeline. The Chinese approval poses substantial risk to the deal, in our view. |
Alliance Aviation |
AQZ AU |
19/05/2022 |
4.01 |
We believe that the antitrust risk is high. The ACCC’s comments after its 3-year review of Qantas’ original minority stake purchase, the limited number of competitors in the target’s key markets and Alliance’s collaboration agreement with Virgin make us cautious. |
Zynga |
ZNGA US |
20/05/2022 |
8.18 |
Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas May 16, 2022 |
Biohaven |
BHVN US |
16/05/2022 |
141 |
Deal risks appear to be limited. We note that product related adverse events are not carved out of MAE. |
|
TWTR US |
11/05/2022 |
47.26 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Assuming a $30 downside and an early August deal close deal closing probability is around 72%. |
Shaw Communications |
SJR/B CN |
09/05/2022 |
34.87 |
The key question is whether Rogers believes that deal benefits (larger cable business, 5G spectrum) outweigh the competitive threat posed by a stronger Quebecor. We are less convinced, that Rogers would vigorously pursue the deal in case Quebecor is not approved as a buyer before the extended Outside date, July 31. |
Activision |
ATVI US |
06/05/2022 |
77.84 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022 |
Accel Group |
ACCEL NA |
06/05/2022 |
57 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022 |
Atlantia |
ATL IM |
06/05/2022 |
22.85 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022 |
Meggitt |
MGGT LN |
06/05/2022 |
778 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022 |
Link |
LNK AU |
06/05/2022 |
4.96 |
We would take a long position on Link as we think the Woodford issue will not materialize in any public finding from the FCA in the upcoming months, but we would wait the next merger update to assess the possible timeline delay to mitigate the downside risk. |
Ubisoft Entertainment |
UBI FP |
04/05/2022 |
43.01 |
We believe Ubisoft is likely to receive indicative proposals from either PEs or strategic buyers. |
Datto |
MSP US |
04/05/2022 |
34.61 |
The deal spread appears to be wide given the limited deal risk. The number of competitors makes a rigorous antitrust review unlikely. Further, in case of an extended review, the divestiture obligation makes a successful deal close likely. |
South Jersey Industries |
SJI US |
29/04/2022 |
34.42 |
The long timeframe and potential regulatory risks do not justify a position long SJI for now. However, the deal will ultimately be approved in our view, after a thorough review. |
Autogrill Spa |
AGL IM |
27/04/2022 |
6.9 |
The deal has a good chance of approval in our view, given the complementary nature (both in terms of geographic and product category exposure) of the businesses and factors that highlight the competitiveness of the travel retail market and the bidding for concessions: |
Ramsay Health |
RHC AU |
25/04/2022 |
84.27 |
We expect a firm deal to be struck most likely under these conditions, however we cannot rule out a slightly higher offer, as Ramsay’s books may forecast a brighter than expected future as covid restrictions are almost completely gone |
Citrix |
CTXS US |
22/04/2022 |
101.5 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 22, 2022 |
Ferro |
FOE US |
22/04/2022 |
22.01 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 22, 2022 |
|
TWTR US |
22/04/2022 |
47.08 |
Given Musk’s commitment to the deal and the potential upside to the current proposal one may consider a position long TWTR. We note the substantial downside which could be even lower once Musk becomes a seller of TWTR shares. |
Atlantia |
ATL IM |
20/04/2022 |
22.79 |
A counter bid or a higher offer appear unlikely. The deal could close in 3Q2022. |
Intersect ENT |
XENT US |
14/04/2022 |
27.96 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 14, 2022 |
Euronav |
EURN BB |
14/04/2022 |
11.82 |
Update - We are altering our view laid out in our April 13 initiation report. As a successful deal close without CMB’s support is unlikely, there is a risk that parties reconsider their intention to combine or in case they push forward with a firm deal, it might fail on shareholder opposition. We no longer recommend setting up the deal spread. |
Nielsen Holdings |
NLSN US |
14/04/2022 |
27.24 |
Despite WindAcre’s opposition, bidders have a good shot to succeed with takeover offer, in our view. The key question is whether WindAcre manages to convince enough Nielsen shareholders to oppose the transaction. |
Euronav |
EURN BB |
13/04/2022 |
11.82 |
Given the high probability of a firm deal and a tighter spread post announcement, one may consider a long position on the deal spread. |
Neenah |
NP US |
08/04/2022 |
38.23 |
Regulatory risk is limited. Shareholder opposition might arise as the value of SWM’s all-share offer is lower than NP’s current share price. |
Pendal |
PDL AU |
08/04/2022 |
5.27 |
We expect the Pendal Board to reject the offer under these terms, as it is opportunistic and undervalues PDL. As the Fund Management sector needs to consolidate, we expect PPT to sweeten its bid. |
Spirit Airlines |
SAVE US |
07/04/2022 |
26.28 |
We see the SAVE/ULCC merger more viable from a regulatory perspective than a SAVE/JBLU combination. The SAVE board, however might find it hard to turn down JBLU’s offer. |
Columbia Care |
CCHW CN |
05/04/2022 |
3.59 |
The deal spread appears to be wide given the limited downside, therefore would recommend a position long the deal spread. |
Western Areas |
WSA AU |
01/04/2022 |
3.65 |
We think that the bullish outlook of nickel and the pressure put on IGO by the Indepent Expert’s report and WSA shareholders will result in a sweetend offer price. Downside risk seems limited based on WSA valuation. |
LHC Group |
LHCG US |
31/03/2022 |
168 |
We would not be surprised if the deal received a second request given UNH’s size and its acquisition of Landmark Health. |
Anaplan |
PLAN US |
29/03/2022 |
65.13 |
Deal risk is limited. We attach low chance to a counterbid given the fair premium and the support of activist shareholders. |
Neles |
NELES FH |
25/03/2022 |
9.11 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 25, 2022 |
Pearson |
PSON LN |
25/03/2022 |
767 |
A 30%-50% probability of an improved and agreed offer around 900p-950p makes us believe that the current PSON share price offers a favorable risk/reward to enter a position long PSON below ~770p. |
Turquoise Hill Resources |
TRQ CN |
23/03/2022 |
38.24 |
We believe Rio Tinto needs to improve its offer materially to succeed. |
Mediaset Espana |
TL5 SM |
22/03/2022 |
4.59 |
We expect MES shareholders to reject the offer and MFE to return with a sweetened bid to pursue its European expansion plans. TL5 downside appears to be limited at these levels. |
Mandiant |
MNDT US |
18/03/2022 |
22.15 |
We would take a position long MNDT at current stage. |
Avast |
AVST LN |
18/03/2022 |
568 |
Our main concern is that remedies might be difficult to structure. |
CareTech |
CTH LN |
11/03/2022 |
670 |
We see likely that a firm deal announcement will happen before the April 4 deadline with an offer price around GBp725-775. |
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt |
HMHC US |
08/03/2022 |
20.88 |
We believe the limited downside, the short timeframe, and the substantial upside offer a favorable risk-reward for a position long HMHC. |
Nuance |
NUAN US |
04/03/2022 |
55.99 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 4, 2022 |
Z Energy |
ZEL NZ |
04/03/2022 |
3.68 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 4, 2022 |
Oxford Instruments |
OXIG LN |
04/03/2022 |
23 |
We believe a firm deal has strong strategic rationale, as the product portfolios are rather complementary. We see no upside to the offer price; however downside is significant in a no-deal situation. The Ukrainian war might also affect the chances of a firm deal. |
AGL Energy |
AGL AU |
04/03/2022 |
7.42 |
We expect the bidder to come back with an improved offer. We expect a lengthy regulatory review in case a firm deal is reached. |
Tegna |
TGNA US |
02/03/2022 |
22.84 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however the lengthy deal timeline makes us cautious recommending a position long TGNA this time. |
Z Energy |
ZEL NZ |
02/03/2022 |
3.64 |
The key risk is timing, as the NZCC in our view is likely to require upfront divestiture of the Gull business. |
MoneyGram International |
MGI US |
25/02/2022 |
10.75 |
Deal risk appears to be limited. We recommend a position long MGI going into the go-shop period, as the current deal spread offers a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid. |
Tower Semiconductor |
TSEM US |
23/02/2022 |
46.87 |
We expect the deal to receive regulatory approvals given the complementary nature and the limited market share in the foundry business. The key question appears to be timing of the SAMR decision. |
US Ecology |
ECOL US |
22/02/2022 |
47.2 |
Considering a mid 2Q 2022 deal close the deal spread is at the upper end of a plain vanilla transaction. However we cannot completely rule out a rigorous review and some delay in the deal timeline. This makes us refrain from recommending a position long ECOL at current stage. Ultimately we see the |
John Menzies |
MNZS LN |
18/02/2022 |
5.83 |
We believe there is a good chance for a firm deal either at 605p or more |
BioDelivery Sciences |
BDSI US |
16/02/2022 |
5.56 |
The deal spread does not appear to be attractive. An extended review appears unlikely, therefore the deal could close in line with the 1Q guidance. |
Link Net TBK |
LINK IJ |
15/02/2022 |
4330 |
Added to best ideas list in APAC Best Ideas February 15, 2022 |
Zynga |
ZNGA US |
15/02/2022 |
9.05 |
Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 15, 2022 |
Cerner |
CERN US |
15/02/2022 |
92.03 |
Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 15, 2022 |
Vivo Energy |
VVO LN |
15/02/2022 |
133 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas February 15, 2022 |
VIB Vermoegen |
VIH1 GR |
11/02/2022 |
52.8 |
We don’t see significant chance for a higher offer from DIC. The effective minimum acceptance condition of 18.5% is quite low and waivable. VIB appears to be overvalued compared to its peers and DIC faces constraints to improve its bid (leverage, FFO accretion). |
Cedar Fair |
FUN US |
11/02/2022 |
59.71 |
Reaching a firm deal might be difficult and a hostile offer seems unlikely given FUN’s strong takeover defenses. We note the substantial upside above $75. Downside in a no deal situation is around $50. |
Spirit Airlines |
SAVE US |
11/02/2022 |
27.3 |
The merger is likely to face antitrust scrutiny in the US. The merging parties compete in several overlapping city-pairs, where they would have ability and incentive to raise prices after the combination. |
Citrix |
CTXS US |
04/02/2022 |
102.9 |
Deal risks appear to be limited, however we find the current spread unattractive. |
Link Net TBK |
LINK IJ |
02/02/2022 |
4430 |
We believe the transaction will receive the necessary approvals in the expected timeline, offering attractive upside potential. |
Neo Lithium |
NLC CN |
28/02/2022 |
6.49 |
Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas January 28, 2022 |
Accel Group |
ACCEL NA |
22/01/2022 |
57.5 |
Given that deal risks are limited, one may consider a position long ACCEL on a possible counterbid. However we see this as a wild card scenario. |
Bluerock Residential Growth REIT |
BRG US |
27/01/2022 |
26.64 |
We believe deal risks are limited. As per our valuation, the share consideration from the spin-off may be worth more than what is implied in the current market price of BRG. |
Zogenix |
ZGNX US |
25/01/2022 |
25.93 |
We expect that the regulatory review will be short given we see no serious antitrust issues. The current market price appears to offer a cheap option on the $2 CVR, which seems to have a high likelihood to be paid out. |
Activision |
ATVI US |
21/01/2022 |
82.15 |
We would not take a position at this time as the deal review will drag into 2023 |
Clinigen |
CLIN LN |
21/01/2022 |
907 |
The probability of an improved offer or a counterbid is low. However, considering the limited deal risk the deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. We recommend a position long CLIN. |
Aspire Global |
ASPIRE SS |
20/01/2022 |
107.8 |
The deal seems to be sealed as there is major cross-ownership between the companies. Due to the minimal deal risk, the deal spread appears to be attractive, but we note that Aspire Global was not very liquid prior to deal announcement. |
Ferro |
FOE US |
18/01/2022 |
21.65 |
Added to best ideas list in Best Ideas January 18, 2022 |
Siltronic |
WAF GY |
18/01/2022 |
127 |
Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas January 18, 2022 |
Link |
LNK AU |
18/01/2022 |
5.54 |
We see upside potential in the offer price, as Link’s PEXA stake appreciated since deal announcement. On the other hand, Link has been in sale talks for more than a year and has not traded at the offer price for almost 2 years. |
Apria |
APR US |
14/01/2022 |
37.29 |
We expect the deal to close in April / early May 2022. |
Zynga |
ZNGA US |
14/01/2022 |
9.06 |
The deal spread appears to be wide. We recommend a position long ZNGA going into the go-shop period as a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid. |
Drilling Co of 1972 |
DRLCO DC |
07/01/2022 |
267.8 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 7, 2022 |
Neo Lithium |
NLC CN |
07/01/2022 |
6.32 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 7, 2022 |
Ferro |
FOE US |
07/01/2022 |
21.8 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 7, 2022 |
IHS Markit |
INFO US |
07/01/2022 |
126 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 7, 2022 |
Ortho Clinical Diagnostics |
OCDX US |
07/01/2022 |
20.21 |
Despite the low-ball offer, target shareholder support seems to be secured as Carlyle irrevocably undertaken to vote in favour of the deal. |
Verso |
VRS US |
07/01/2022 |
26.86 |
Deal risk is limited. We see a low probability of a counterbid and we do not recommend a position long VRS at current stage. |
Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust |
MAGIC SP |
06/01/2022 |
1.09 |
While there might be long term rationale in broadening MCT’s investment mandate, we see risks to shareholder approval on both sides |
Terminix |
TMX US |
23/12/2021 |
44.01 |
We see risks to the deal given the lack of competition on the national level post-merger. The divestiture cap might not be sufficient and finding a viable buyer for divestitures might prove difficult. |
Nobina |
NOBINA SS |
22/12/2021 |
106.1 |
The key risk appears to be the 90% minimum acceptance which can be waived, but as the bidder intends to delist Nobina, it might not be satisfied with a smaller acceptance rate. We note that the SEK 108 price represents a more than 20% premium to Nobina’s all-time high price. |
Cerner |
CERN US |
22/12/2021 |
90.67 |
We expect the deal to receive approvals and close in late 1H2022 or early 2H2022. |
Akka Technologies |
AKA FP |
17/12/2021 |
48.38 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 17, 2021 |
GCP Applied Technologies |
GCP US |
17/12/2021 |
31.82 |
The deal spread is tight. Given the several product overlaps, we expect extended antitrust reviews, especially in the US. |
Soliton |
SOLY US |
15/12/2021 |
22.58 |
Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas December 15, 2021 |
Intertrust NV |
INTER NA |
15/12/2021 |
19.62 |
We see no major issues regarding regulatory approvals, but the process will take time. One might, however go long Intertrust with a view of a wild-card offer from the party that has offered EU22 during the process. |
Mimecast |
MIME US |
15/12/2021 |
79.46 |
Currently we see a superior offer as a wild card scenario however the spread and the low deal risk make us recommend a position long MIME on counterbid optionality. |
Arena Pharmaceuticals |
ARNA US |
14/12/2021 |
91.6 |
We would not take a position at this time given the likely extended regulatory review and the significant downside. |
Z Energy |
ZEL NZ |
10/12/2021 |
3.49 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 10, 2021 |
Intersect ENT |
XENT US |
10/12/2021 |
27.04 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 10, 2021 |
Momentive Global |
MNTV US |
08/12/2021 |
21.6 |
The deal is likely to fail. Given our standalone estimations and current share price we recommend a position long ZEN however we would not, or not fully hedge with MNTV short given the counterbid probability. |
True Corp |
TRUE TB |
07/12/2021 |
43.75 |
Despite the obvious antitrust issues, the deal might be approved after positive comments from Thai regulators. |
Sportsman's Warehouse |
SPWH US |
03/12/2021 |
13.61 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 3, 2021 |
Aareal Bank |
ARL GR |
01/12/2021 |
28.96 |
The deal spread is tight. Given the shareholder opposition, one might speculate on a better offer, however, downside is significant in our view. |
Distell |
DGH SJ |
01/12/2021 |
160.96 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however the lengthy deal review, potential shareholder opposition and antitrust hurdles (no clear visibility on divestiture commitments) makes us refrain recommending a position long Distell. |
Vivo Energy |
VVO LN |
30/11/2021 |
131.6 |
We expect the deal to close in late 2Q or early 3Q. |
Vonage |
VG US |
24/11/2021 |
20.655 |
The deal spread does not appear to be attractive. |
Drilling Co of 1972 |
DRLCO DC |
23/11/2021 |
261.2 |
We believe regulators will approve the deal given the fragmented nature of the offshore drilling industry. We expect shareholders to support the transaction as well. |
Ferro |
FOE US |
19/11/2021 |
21.38 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 19, 2021 |
Nuance Communications |
NUAN US |
19/11/2021 |
55.25 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 19, 2021 |
Praemium |
PPS AU |
18/11/2021 |
1.53 |
We expect NWL to make an improved offer and see up to 20% upside, and and 15-20% downside in case no firm deal materializes. |
McAfee |
MCFE US |
17/11/2021 |
25.59 |
There is a 45 day go-shop period. As deal risk and downside is limited we recommend a position long MCFE. However, we note that counterbid probability is low given the lack of strategic bidders and PE bidders facing leverage hurdles. |
Afterpay |
APT AU |
12/11/2021 |
116.42 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 12, 2021 |
NeoPhotonics |
NPTN US |
11/11/2021 |
15.6 |
The deal spread appears to be tight given the long timeline. A counter bid appears less likely after both IIVI and MKSI made acquisitions over the year. |
Rogers Corp |
ROG US |
11/11/2021 |
269.19 |
We expect an extended antitrust review given the complex nature of the overlapping products. |
Daily Mail |
DMGT LN |
10/11/2021 |
1130 |
The deal spread of 7.6% appears to be wide given the limited downside around 1000p. |
Ausnutria |
1717 HK |
09/11/2021 |
9.42 |
We believe that the deal will receive regulatory approvals, however there are risks to the new share issue which is a condition to the stake purchase and the mandatory offer. |
RR Donnelley & Sons |
RRD US |
03/11/2021 |
9.11 |
We believe that Chatham’s improved proposal is likely to be superior. We cannot rule out multiple rounds of bids given the ample of upside based on our LBO calculation |
PAE |
PAE US |
29/10/2021 |
9.91 |
We would not rule out a refiling requirement or a second request given parties are close competitors. Most peers have limited room to make an all cash counter bid. |
Senex |
SXY AU |
29/10/2021 |
4.44 |
The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be attractive |
Playtech |
Ptech LN |
27/10/2021 |
6.74 |
We believe shareholders will approve the deal given the fair offer |
Siltronic |
WAF GY |
25/21/2021 |
133.95 |
We continue to recommend a position long WAF on the tendered line, given that the downside is limited in a standalone case and any other scenario (end date extension with or without compensation, deal close before the end date) offers substantial upside. |
Sportsman's Warehouse |
SPWH US |
22/10/2021 |
17.66 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 22, 2021 |
Entra ASA |
ENTRA NO |
20/10/2021 |
210.2 |
We believe there is a good chance that sooner or later Castellum will make a move for Entra. |
Z Energy |
ZEL NZ |
20/10/2021 |
3.63 |
We believe that the deal will receive regulatory approvals, however there are risks to timing. |
Neo Lithium |
NLC CN |
19/10/2021 |
6.26 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the limited downside and a low probability of the deal being blocked. |
Sportsman's Warehouse |
SPWH US |
15/10/2021 |
17.75 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 15, 2021 |
Tronox |
TROX US |
12/10/2021 |
24.89 |
The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be attractive. |
Forterra |
FRTA US |
08/10/2021 |
23.74 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 8, 2021 |
Acceleron |
XLRN US |
08/10/2021 |
175.29 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Although delays cannot completely be ruled out we see some upside optionality in a counterbid situation. One may consider a position long XLRN. |
Blue Prism Group |
PRSM LN |
08/10/2021 |
11.33 |
Despite the low-ball offer and shareholder revolt, we see limited chance for a bump as the standalone prospect of the company seems not too bright. |
Shaw Communications |
SJR/B CN |
06/10/2021 |
38.14 |
We believe that the deal will receive approval, however remedies might be required (behavioral and/or local divestitures to reduce BDU market share) |
Kirkland Lake Gold |
KL CN |
01/10/2021 |
52.76 |
We don’t expect a counterbid, therefore we believe shareholders will vote in favour of the deal |
Smartgroup |
SIG AU |
30/09/2021 |
9.5 |
The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be attractive at the current market price. |
Forterra |
FRTA US |
24/09/2021 |
23.51 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 24, 2021 |
Stagecoach |
SGC LN |
24/09/2021 |
84.05 |
We see risk of a longer regulatory review and possible remedies in case a firm deal is agreed. |
AusNet Services |
AST AU |
24/09/2021 |
2.55 |
The deal spread is tight. In case of a firm bid, we believe the key risk is the shareholder approval. However, regulatory scrutiny or antitrust concerns will pose a risk to the deal as well. |
Itamar Medical |
ITMR IT |
24/09/2021 |
322.3 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide but substantial downside makes us refrain from recommending a position long IMTR |
Kadmon |
KDMN US |
17/09/2021 |
8.8 |
Given that Belumonsudil study data is expected before deal close and any issues around the product are not carved out of MAE and the risk of a longer timeline (second request or standard form letter form the FTC), we would not recommend any position at this stage. |
Oil Search |
OSH AU |
16/09/2021 |
3.9 |
We believe the key risk is the possible regulatory scrutiny in Papua New Guinea. Santos and Oil Search will likely have to make serious commitments to PNG. |
Afterpay |
APT AU |
15/09/2021 |
123.62 |
Added to best ideas list in APAC Best Ideas September 15, 2021 |
Neles |
NELES FH |
15/09/2021 |
12.545 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas September 15, 2021 |
Siltronic |
WAF1 GY |
15/09/2021 |
138 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas September 15, 2021 |
Cerved |
CERV IM |
10/09/2021 |
10.2 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 10, 2021 |
Hill-Rom |
HRC US |
10/09/2021 |
151,68 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, however we note that the China review might take a while. A refiling for HSR approval cannot be ruled out; however a second request has a very limited chance in our view. |
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum |
SOBI SS |
10/09/2021 |
242,1 |
Support from the board and anchor shareholders, the decent premium and recent regulatory setbacks decrease the likelihood of an upside scenario. However given the high acceptance condition, the lack of alternative transaction structures to get to 100% and comments from AP4 , a position long SOBI slightly above the offer price might be attractive in our view. |
Ferro Corp |
FOE US |
08/09/2021 |
21.05 |
We believe regulators will approve the deal after a thorough review with a high possibility of remedies in some niche segments. |
Enable Midstream Partners |
ENBL US |
03/09/2021 |
8.16 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021 |
Forterra |
FRTA US |
03/09/2021 |
23.69 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021 |
Shaw Communications |
SJR/B CN |
03/09/2021 |
37.25 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021 |
Akka Technologies |
AKA FP |
03/09/2021 |
47.2 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021 |
Translate Bio |
TBIO US |
03/09/2021 |
37.65 |
We don’t expect a second request, however the deal spread appears to be too tight at this point for a long TBIO. One might, however bet on an unlikely second request with a position short in the target going into the expiry of the HSR waiting period. |
Five9 |
FIVN US |
03/09/2021 |
167.5 |
At current stage we recommend a position long FIVN going into the shareholder vote, given the limited downside and some optionality for an improved offer. |
Kansas City Southern |
KSU US |
01/09/2021 |
280.67 |
A long position KSU appears to be a safe bet until at least September 12 (the expiry of CP’s offer), at the current 2.7% spread. |
Trillium Therapeutics |
TRIL CN |
31/08/2021 |
17.29 |
We see limited risk regarding antitrust scrutiny despite Pfizer’s overlapping development asset. Based on that, we would go long TRIL. |
Maxim |
MXIM US |
27/08/2021 |
103.14 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 27, 2021 |
Soliton |
SOLY US |
27/08/2021 |
20.72 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 27, 2021 |
Soliton |
SOLY US |
27/08/2021 |
20.72 |
We estimate limited downside of around $19.50 and a deal close in early 2022. The implied deal closing probability is approximately 40%. Based on that, we believe that the current spread of 8.3% is somewhat wide thus, we recommend a SOLY long. |
Hella |
HLE GR |
23/08/2021 |
60.84 |
We believe there is no upside to the deal terms as there is no minimum acceptance and counterbid is unlikely. Given the complementary nature of the product portfolios, we don’t see antitrust issues. |
Sportsman's Warehouse |
SPWH US |
20/08/2021 |
17.65 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 20, 2021 |
Ultra Electronics |
ULE LN |
20/08/2021 |
3,372 |
Parties’ 1Q deal close expectation might be optimistic though as the Ultra deal might get more scrutiny compared to earlier acquisitions of UK defense companies |
Sanderson Farms |
SAFM US |
16/08/2021 |
195.25 |
The deal spread is not attractive in our view given the long regulatory timeline. |
Afterpay |
APT AU |
13/08/2021 |
132.01 |
We believe that shareholders will vote in favour of the merger as the deal rationale to merge appears to be strong. |
Intersect Ent |
XENT US |
10/08/2021 |
27.83 |
We don’t see serious regulatory risks with regard to the transaction. |
Inter Pipeline |
IPL CN |
06/08/2021 |
19.96 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 6, 2021 |
Meggitt |
MGGT LN |
06/08/2021 |
7.25 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, but the lengthy deal review makes us reluctant to enter a position long MGGT at this point. |
Akka Technologies |
AKA FP |
29/07/2021 |
47.02 |
We expect no extended antitrust reviews and a deal timeline of around 10 months. |
Veoneer |
VNE US |
27/07/2021 |
31.36 |
We attach low probability to a counter bid given VNE said it had been in discussion with other parties before the agreement with MGA. |
PPD |
PPD US |
23/07/2021 |
46.16 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 23, 2021 |
Slack Technologies |
WORK US |
23/07/2021 |
45.2 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 23, 2021 |
Sumo Group |
SUMO LN |
23/07/2021 |
4.99 |
We believe the key risk is the CFIUS approval. Regulatory scrutiny might emerge from the handling of American users’ data, however if needed, the US business can be divested in order to close the deal. |
Five9 |
FIVN US |
22/07/2021 |
189.80 |
The current spread does not compensate for the lengthy deal timeline. |
Avast |
AVST LN |
20/07/2021 |
598.00 |
As per our valuation, a deal appears to be feasible even at around GBP6.50 |
Stamps.com |
STMP US |
16/07/2021 |
5,908 |
We would recommend a position long going into the go-shop period as a cheap bet on a counterbid. Based on our LBO valuation, we see room for a higher offer. |
Willis Towers Watson |
WLTW US |
15/07/2021 |
221.91 |
Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas July 15, 2021 |
Cerved |
CERV IM |
15/07/2021 |
9.9 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas July 15, 2021 |
Alexion |
ALXN US |
15/07/2021 |
180.51 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro/Americas Best Ideas July 15, 2021 |
Sydney Airport |
SYD AU |
15/07/2021 |
7.81 |
Given that standpoints on valuation appear to be far away and considering the substantial downside we do not recommend taking a position long SYD at current stage. |
Neles |
NELES FH |
12/07/2021 |
13.49 |
We believe there is no upside to the deal terms. Given Valmet’s ~30% stake in Neles, counterbid is very unlikely. |
WM Morrison |
MRW LN |
09/07/2021 |
266 |
We see limited upside for counterbidders up to 260p-270p. Based on that we do not recommend long MRW above 250p |
Grandvision |
GVNV NA |
02/07/2021 |
28.25 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 2, 2021 |
UDG Healthcare |
UDG LN |
02/07/2021 |
1068 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 2, 2021 |
QAD |
QADA |
02/07/2021 |
86.44 |
We believe shareholders will vote in favour of the merger given the fair offer. A counter bid is unlikely as the Lopker family has a huge influence on the company and Pamela Lopker will retain a significant ownership interest after the deal and will continue to serve on the QAD Board. |
Kindred Biosciences |
KIN US |
30/06/2021 |
9.16 |
We expect the deal to close in September 2021. An extended review appears to be unlikely. |
Lydall |
LDL US |
29/06/2021 |
60.9 |
We believe an extended antitrust review is unlikely. Other than a few overlaps, the product portfolios can be seen complementary, in our view. |
Grandvision |
GVNV NA |
25/06/2021 |
24.85 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 25, 2021 |
WM Morrison |
MRW LN |
25/06/2021 |
234 |
We believe that probability of a firm deal and potential upside compensates the downside risk. |
Raven Industries |
RAVN US |
25/06/2021 |
57.65 |
The deal spread does not appear to be attractive given the long deal timeline and possible vertical issues with the merger. Also, as per the merger call there was a competitive sale process before deal announcement. |
Solarpack SA |
SPK SM |
21/06/2021 |
26.2 |
The deal spread is tight. Given EQT can waive the 75%+1 minimum acceptance and has 50%+1 by the irrevocable undertakings, we see no upside to the deal terms. |
Willis Towers Watson |
WLTW US |
18/06/2021 |
225.2 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 18, 2021 |
Deutsche Wohnen |
DWNI GY |
18/06/2021 |
51.48 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 18, 2021 |
Cloudera |
CLDR US |
18/06/2021 |
15.78 |
The deal spread and an improved bid opportunity favor a position long CLDR. |
Altium |
ALU AU |
18/06/2021 |
34.71 |
Autodesk’s proposal shows their intention to expand their manufacturing software segment, which is highly competitive. Altium perfectly fits in Autodesk’s portfolio. |
Magnachip Semiconductor |
MX US |
17/06/2021 |
24.07 |
We believe that the CFIUS interim order and a possible block might offer Korea the chance to avoid having to make a decision on this delicate deal. |
UDG Healthcare |
UDG LN |
15/06/2021 |
1044 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas June 15, 2021 |
Deutsche Wohnen |
DWNI GY |
15/06/2021 |
51.8 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas June 15, 2021 |
Great Canadian Gaming |
GC CN |
11/06/2021 |
44.65 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 11, 2021 |
Spire Healthcare |
SPI LN |
09/06/2021 |
2.45 |
Based on deal valuation and Mediclinic’s support (as long as there is no counter bid more than 10% higher than the current one) we believe that the deal will go through as it is. |
Welbilt Update |
WBT US |
09/06/2021 |
24.34 |
We would not take a position as WBT is already trading above Ali’s proposal and a counterbid from MIDD might be limited to around $24-$26. |
Grandvision |
GVNV NA |
04/06/2021 |
27.25 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 4, 2021 |
Inter Pipeline |
IPL CN |
04/06/2021 |
20.27 |
Brookfield’s proposal appears to be superior at this moment as it is worth more, has a significant cash component and could close imminently. We don’t expect that this is Pembina’s best offer. They probably expected Brookfield to improve their bid, so we see at least one more improvement from Pembina. |
UDG Healthcare |
UDG LN |
03/06/2021 |
1058 |
We believe that the strong deal rationale favors an improved offer, thus we would recommend a position long UDG. |
Recticel |
REC BB |
02/06/2021 |
14.66 |
We believe Greiner needs to improve its bid to reach the 50%+1 threshold. Antitrust concerns might arise around the combined market share in the EU. Therefore, a lengthy regulatory review might not be ruled out. |
Alexion |
ALXN US |
28/05/2021 |
176.55 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 28, 2021 |
Deutsche Wohnen |
DWNI GY |
28/05/2021 |
52.24 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 28, 2021 |
IHS Markit |
INFO US |
28/05/2021 |
105.31 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 28, 2021 |
Deutsche Wohnen |
DWNI GY |
28/05/2021 |
52.26 |
The deal spread appears to be favorable to take a position long DWNI. |
Crown Resorts |
CWN AU |
28/05/2021 |
12.94 |
We would not take a position in CWN at this time due to its valuation and the ongoing regulatory processes. |
Core-Mark |
CORE US |
26/05/2021 |
45.11 |
We don’t see nationwide issues and the divestiture cap is sizeable enough to tackle local issues if they arise. |
Monmouth Real Estate |
MNR US |
25/05/2021 |
19 |
We believe shareholders will approve the deal if no superior offer emerges. Blackwells failed to make an improved offer in recent months and the board explored strategic alternatives, which appears to limit upside potential. |
Welbilt |
WBT US |
25/05/2021 |
19.59 |
We would not take a position at this time given the long deal timeline and the risk of a counter bid for either party before the shareholder votes. |
Klovern |
KLOVB SS |
21/05/2021 |
16.37 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 1, 2021 |
Enable Midstream Partners |
ENBL US |
19/05/2021 |
8.54 |
We don’t expect significant divestitures to be required by regulators. We expect the deal to close in 4Q2021. |
PRA Health |
PRAH US |
17/05/2021 |
171.9 |
Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas May 17, 2021 |
Meggitt |
MGGT LN |
14/05/2021 |
480.4 |
We would not take a position as there has not been any official announcement about the approach. However, if the deal materializes, we believe regulatory risk is manageable. |
KPN NV |
KPN NA |
13/05/2021 |
2.781 |
It appears that price is not the only concern and given the lack of willingness to sell both from KPN board/management and the Dutch government the probability of a firm deal is low. We would not recommend a position long KPN above its fair value. |
IHH Healthcare |
IHH MK |
13/05/2021 |
5.45 |
N/A |
At Home Group |
HOME US |
11/05/2021 |
36.3 |
We would not go long HOME as we see little upside based on our LBO calculations. |
Tilt Renewables |
TLT NZ |
07/05/2021 |
8 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 7, 2021 |
Equiniti Group |
EQN LN |
06/05/2021 |
1.74 |
We believe there is a good chance for a firm deal. Based on our LBO model we see upside to the deal price. |
Intouch Holdings |
INTUCH TB |
04/05/2021 |
63.75 |
We would not take a position at this point as we see limited upside potential |
Cerved |
CERV IM |
04/05/2021 |
9.7 |
We recommend a position long CERV close to the ION offer price as cheap option for a bump to the offer. |
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Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest). As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level. |
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