Coverage List

Stock

Ticker

Date Published

Market Price on Publication Date

Recommendation

CA Immo

CAI AV

18/01/2021

35.25

We believe the offer price does not represent a compelling value.

Kiadis

KDS NA

15/01/2021

5.26

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 15, 2021

Coca-Cola Amatil

CCL AU

15/01/2021

12.95

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 15, 2021

Intratil

IFT NZ

15/01/2021

7.16

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 15, 2021

ODP

ODP US

15/01/2021

45.62

ODP’s historical valuation metrics, the synergy potential, and precedent transaction multiples also justify a higher offer price

Xilinx

XLNX US

12/01/2021

147.23

Update on DCSA approval - manageable risk

FLIR Systems

FLIR US

11/01/2021

52.88

We believe that there is a high probability of an extended antitrust review. Therefore, the mid-2021 timeline estimate of the companies might be a bit optimistic in our view.

Great Canadian Gaming

GC CN

11/01/2021

43.43

We don’t see a strong motivation for Apollo to walk away, in addition we note that their options are limited.

Great Canadian Gaming

GC CN

08/01/2021

43.43

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021

Willis Towers Watson

WLTW US

08/01/2021

203.64

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021

National General

NGHC US

08/01/2021

34.18

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021

Virtusa

VRTU US

08/01/2021

51.16

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021

Entra

ENTRA NO

08/01/2021

194

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021

KAZ Minerals

KAZ LN

08/01/2021

706.6

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021

Entain

ENT LN

07/01/2021

1468

We believe there are strong merits for the deal and MGM has ample of room to improve current terms. We see an acceptable offer at least around 1600p which makes us recommend ENT long on a favorable risk reward

Signature Aviation

SIG LN

07/01/2021

411.6

Given that SIG is trading above the proposed terms we don’t recommend taking a position, as we don’t see significant upside to the proposed price

Magellan Health

MGLN US

06/01/2021

93.57

We expect the deal timeline to be driven by state approvals and the deal to close in 3Q2021.

Aphria

APHA CN

23/12/2020

9.17

We see limited deal risk or any chance of an extended deal review. However, the deal spread of 0.4% is too tight to recommend a position.

Pluralsight

PS US

23/12/2020

20.54

A superior offer appears unlikely, however it is a cheap trade to bet on one.

Aerojet Rocketdyne

AJRD US

22/12/2020

52.77

We expect the deal to close in October/November 2021. We see path to approval based on the framework set by the Orbital/Northrop precedent, however heavy opposition can be expected from AJRD customers Boeing and Raytheon

TORC Oil & Gas

TOG CN

17/12/2020

2.74

Consolidation in the Canadian oil & gas industry is at full steam ahead. With operating efficiencies and focus on deleveraging, deal premiums continue to be minimal. We see limited risks to the TOG/WCP combination and expect the timeline to be driven by the timing of the shareholder votes.

Alexion

ALXN US

17/12/2020

157.84

The deal spread (assuming one more dvd for AZN) appears to be somewhat tight given the shareholder vote risk and the lengthy deal timeline

Infratil

IFT NZ

16/12/2020

7.02

Based on our SOTP, we believe that the valuation of the offer is not compelling.

Slack Technologies

WORK US

15/12/2020

 

Added to best ideas list in  Americas Best Ideas December 15, 2020

Sogou

SOGO US

14/12/2020

8.13

We believe that the deal will be approved in China given Tencent already had a majority stake before the deal and the companies were in close collaboration.

Seacor Holdings

CKH US

11/12/2020

41.79

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 11, 2020

Omnicell

OMCL US

11/12/2020

116.76

We believe that a firm deal has higher probability compared to what is implied by its market price.

Seacor Holdings

CKH US

11/12/2020

42.02

Seacor is trading above terms. We believe that downside is limited in a deal break and shareholders are somewhat reluctant to tender into the current AIP offer. We see an acceptable offer price in the $46-$52 price range; thus we recommend a position long CKH.

Waddell & Reed Financial

WDR US

10/12/2020

25.54

We see limited risks to the deal. The deal spread is driven by dividend expectations and timeline. We expect the deal to close in May 2021.

Siltronic

WAF GY

08/12/2020

124.95

We believe that there is a high probability of a firm deal however, post-announcement, we expect a deal spread in the 5%-10% range given the antitrust-related risk

Entra

ENTRA NO

04/12/2020

179.6

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 4, 2020

AA Plc

AA LN

03/12/2020

0.33

The deal spread reflects the risk associated with the shareholder vote. Considering the uncertainties and the sizable downside risk, we do not recommend going long deal spread.

IHS Markit

INFO US

03/12/2020

99.67

We don’t find the current deal spread attractive.

Credito Valtellinese

CVAL IM

02/12/2020

11.17

Given the limited upside, a long position does not look appealing on a risk-reward basis.

Entra

ENTRA NO

01/12/2020

176.2

We believe there is further upside up to the NOK190-NOK210 range thus we recommend a position long ENTRA

Slack Technologies

WORK US

26/11/2020

40.7

We believe that the possible deal has strong strategic rationale and it is very likely to get done. We see upside to around $45/WORK share.

Great Canadian Gaming

GC CN

24/11/2020

37.63

The announcement received resistance from key Great Canadian shareholders. We agree with shareholders on valuation and we find it difficult to justify the GC board recommendation. We expect the takeover attempt to fizzle out eventually as the gap between shareholders’ demands and the C$39.0 offer appear to be too big to overcome.

CAR

699 HK

24/11/2020

3.67

We believe that the key risk is around debt refinancing. The offer price appears to be attractive.

RSA Insurance Group

RSA LN

24/11/2020

675.8

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight.

MCUBSMidcity Investment Corp

3227 JP

20/11/2020

80600

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 20, 2020

HD Supply

HDS US

20/11/2020

55.8

We expect no extended antitrust review or counter bid.

Willis Towers Watson

WLTW US

17/11/2020

210.61

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide and the risk reward (given the limited downside) favors taking a long position on the deal spread

Navistar

NAV US

17/11/2020

43.99

The deal spread appears to be attractive given limited risks to the deal and potential upside to timeline.

Codemasters

CDM LN

16/11/2020

477.5

We see upside to the current valuation as a result of a bump or counter bid with limited downside.

Taubman Centers

TCO US

16/11/2020

42.8

Removed from best ideas list in  Americas Best Ideas November 16, 2020

NetEnt

NETB SS

13/11/2020

84.5

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 13, 2020

MCUBSMidcity Investment Corp

3227 JP

13/11/2020

78300

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 13, 2020

AMP

AMP AU

11/11/2020

1.67

We believe the implied offer price represents a fair premium.

Husky Energy

HSE CN

10/11/2020

4.51

The lack of deal spread can be explained with limited downside risk, in our view.

KAZ Minerals

KAZ LN

06/11/2020

628

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 6, 2020

Tiffany

TIF US

06/11/2020

131.15

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 6, 2020

Concho

CXO US

06/11/2020

42.39

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 6, 2020

Kiadis Pharma

KDS NA

06/11/2020

5.13

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Antitrust risk appears to be limited and no significant product updates expected before deal-close.

KAZ Minerals

KAZ LN

04/11/2020

6.23

The deal spread appears to be attractive based on limited risks to the deal.

Xilinx

XLNX US

03/11/2020

118.48

The lengthy deal timeline and the bidder shareholder vote risk makes us reluctant to recommend a position long deal spread at current stage.

Concho Resources

CXO US

30/10/2020

41.51

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 30, 2020

Bilfinger

GBF GY

29/10/2020

15.97

We see huge upside in a takeover situation, however in the current market environment a firm deal is somewhat unlikely

Coca-Cola Amatil

CCL AU

29/10/2020

12.43

The deal spread is tight. The key risk appears to be the shareholder approval.

McCarthy & Stone Plc

MCS LN

27/10/2020

115.40

We assign low probability to counter bid or an increased offer.

AMAG Pharmaceuticals

AMAG US

23/10/2020

13.67

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 23, 2020

Play Communications

PLY PW

23/10/2020

38.74

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 23, 2020

Concho Resources

CXO US

22/10/2020

44.28

The dividend differential makes the spread attractive. We expect the deal to
close in February 2021.

BioSpecifics Technologies

BSTC US

22/10/2020

88.30

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight. As we don’t see a counterbidder coming in for BSTC and Endo is likely to succeed at current terms an improved offer appears to be a wild card scenario

Link

LNK AU

22/10/2020

4.94

We believe that there is a good chance for a firm deal given the premium, support from the largest shareholder and the bidder’s history with LNK

Parsley Energy

PE US

21/10/2020

10.38

The number of potential counter bidders for Permian shale assets is limited and buyers are not willing to offer premiums. PXD’s size and valuation poses a high hurdle to a bid on the bidder side. Therefore, a counter bid for either party is unlikely in our view.

DouYu

DOYU US

20/10/2020

15.76

The ~3% deal spread appears to be unattractive, considering the uncertainties associated with the regulatory process.

Xilinx

XLNX US

19/10/2020

118.23

Limited room for further XLNX price increase and the uncertainty around a firm deal announcement makes us reluctant to recommend a position long XLNX.

Grubhub

GRUB US

15/10/2020

83.59

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas October 15, 2020

Saracen Mineral Holdings

SAR AU

14/10/2020

6.11

The deal spread is tight. We see limited risk with the shareholder approval and the bidder’s creditor consent.

MyoKardia

MYOK US

13/10/2020

221.64

We recommend going long deal spread as we don’t anticipate significant risks to the deal.

Eaton Vance Health

EV US

12/10/2020

60.31

We expect the deal to close in April 2021. The key risk is the >80% client consent condition. The deal spread does not appear to be attractive at this
point.

AMAG Pharmaceuticals

AMAG US

09/10/2020

13.33

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 9, 2020

Virtusa

VRTU US

09/10/2020

50.32

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 9, 2020

AMAG Pharmaceuticals

AMAG US

07/10/2020

13.08

The deal spread appears to be wide given MAE carve-outs include product related events. Thus, we recommend a position long AMAG.

Konecranes Oyj

KCR FH

07/10/2020

28.50

The deal spread appears to be too tight. We expect a lengthy regulatory review which might result in divestitures. We also note the 15% dissent condition, that might become important in case of diverging performance of the merging parties.

William Hill

WMH LN

06/10/2020

279.80

WMH is trading above terms on an improved offer by CZR or a counterbid optionality. At current terms we assign high probability of the deal being blocked by shareholders unless CZR improves the current offer. We don’t see a counterbid as a relevant option.

WPX Energy

WPX US

06/10/2020

5.24

The deal spread looks unattractive as we don’t see substantial upside as a
result of limited counterbid potential.

Sogou

SOGO US

02/10/2020

8.89

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 1, 2020

Fitbit

FIT US

02/10/2020

6.92

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 1, 2020

Ahlstrom-Munksjo

AM1 FH

01/10/2020

17.80

The deal multiple is somewhat lower than precedents. The bidder might have to increase its offer to reach 90% in case of strong shareholder opposition.

Virtusa

VRTU US

30/09/2020

48.55

The deal spread appears to be attractive but the ongoing proxy contest between New Mountain and Virtusa’s Board brings uncertainty into the picture.

Cubic

CUB US

29/09/2020

60.4

We believe that the upside/downside and the likelihood of a firm deal offers a favorable entry point around $60.

Play Communications

PLY PW

25/09/2020

38.58

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 25, 2020

Varian Medical

VAR US

25/09/2020

171.99

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 25, 2020

National General

NGHC US

25/09/2020

33.875

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 25, 2020

Craft Brew Alliance

BREW US

25/09/2020

16.47

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 25, 2020

Play Communications

PLY PW

24/09/2020

38.58

The deal spread is tight, however one might speculate on a counter-bid given the relatively low valuation and limited deal risk.

COL Pcl

COL TB

24/09/2020

18.6

COL shareholder vote appears to be the key hurdle to the deal. Support from almost 50% of shares indicates that the shareholder vote is likely to succeed.

G4S

GFS LN

22/09/2020

186.15

We see substantial upside in a friendly situation however the downside risk does not offer a favorable risk reward.

MCUBS  MIDCITY  INVESTMENT  CORP

3227 JP

18/09/2020

77300

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 18, 2020

OptiComm

OPC AU

18/09/2020

6.03

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 18, 2020

Highland Gold

HGM LN

18/09/2020

298.6

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 18, 2020

Citadel Group

CGL AU

18/09/2020

5.57

N/A

Altice

ATC NA

18/09/2020

4.14

The relatively low implied valuation is opportunistic, in our view. We see limited probability for an improved offer. The offer price represents a floor for ATC

OptiComm

OPC AU

17/09/2020

6.03

Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas September 17, 2020

MCUBS  MIDCITY  INVESTMENT  CORP

3227  JP

17/09/2020

78000

Added to best ideas list in Best Ideas September 17, 2020

Immunomedics Health

IMMU US

17/09/2020

85.36

We  expect  no significant  issues  with  regulatory  approvals.Product  related events are carved out of MAE.

MCUBSMidcity Investment Corp

3227 JP

14/09/2020

74900

The deal spread appears to be attractive due to the dividend differential.

Bankia

BKIA SM

14/09/2020

1.39

We  see  room  for  CABK  to  meet  BKIA  owners'demand  of  30%  premium  however,the lengthy deal timeline and the political sensitivity of the deal might limit the upside on a firm deal announcement.

Jinmao Hotel

6139 HK

11/09/2020

4.77

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 11, 2020

HiQ

HIQ SS

11/09/2020

70

The valuation is on the upper endof precedents’range, in our view. As a result we don’t expect a counterbid.

Grubhub

GRUB US

09/09/2020

69.69

The Takeaway.com shareholder vote is the keyremaining risk. We believe that TKWY  shareholders  will  support  the  deal  due  to  its strategic  nature  and  key shareholder agreements.

Tiffany

TIF US

09/09/2020

114.69

The key questions in our  view are, whether the outside date extension could be challenged and whether the French Ministry letter qualifies as a legal prohibition as per the DMA or not. Based on the availableinformation we believe that TIF hastheupper handina court case

Kansas City Southern

KSU US

08/09/2020

188

We would not take a position at this point as room for the bidders to increase the offer priceappears to be limitedandthe target might seemore valuein a standalone scenario.

Fitbit

FIT US

04/09/2020

6.33

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 4, 2020

Grubhub

GRUB US

04/09/2020

68.82

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 4, 2020

Wright Medical

WMGI US

04/09/2020

30.45

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 4, 2020

BMC Stock Holdings

BMCH US

03/09/2020

41.01

The deal spread appears to be tight considering a potential lengthy deal timeline. Overall deal risk appears to be limited therefore a spread widening might offer a good entry point.

Hudson

HUD US

03/09/2020

7.57

The valuation appears to be opportunistic and we cannot rule out HUD shareholders voting against the deal. We note that a higher offer from a third-party is unlikely given DUFN’s majority stake.

Suez

SEV FP

02/09/2020

14.88

The offer appears to undervalue SEV. A higher offer from a third-party is not likely, however VIE will probably have to increase its bid to succeed.

Craft Brew Alliance

BREW US

28/08/2020

15.79

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 28, 2020

Wright Medical

WMGI US

28/08/2020

30.16

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 28, 2020

DouYu

DOYU US

27/08/2020

16.18

We don’t expect a notable deal premium, given Tencent’s influence on the Target.

Momenta Pharmaceuticals

MNTA US

27/08/2020

52.15

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight however some spread widening might offer a favorable entry point.

Guyana Goldfields

GUY CN

26/08/2020

1.85

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 26, 2020

Principia Biopharma

PRNB US

19/08/2020

99.61

The deal spread reflects the limited deal risk.

IPL Plastics

IPLP CN

17/08/2020

10.16

IPLP is trading through, but we see limited probability of a counterbid based on precedent deal multiples, uncertain outlook and past performance of IPLP.

Highland Gold

HGM LN

14/08/2020

2.934

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 14, 2020

Sabana REIT

SSREIT SP

14/08/2020

0.365

We will not take any position given the spread is not attractive. We believe given the opposition from major shareholders and reluctance of the bidder to improve offer terms based on the no increase statement, there is a chance that the deal might fail.

Sunrise Communications

SRCG SW

13/08/2020

109

Deal risk appears to be limited. Close is expected in late-2020

Livongo Health

LVGO US

11/08/2020

121.41

Bidder vote appears to be the key risk to the deal. There might be opposition
given the deal’s valuation, however in our view it is more likely that the deal
will go through.

Wright Medical

WMGI US

07/08/2020

30.19

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 7, 2020

Hastings

HSTG

07/08/2020

252.2

We will not take any position as the spread is not attractive given that the current offer terms value the company richly, and therefore, we think the chance of a counterbid is low.

Highland Gold

HGM LN

07/08/2020

2.97

The deal spread appears to be attractive, as we see limited risks to the deal

Varian Medical

VAR US

05/08/2020

174.5

We expect the deal to close in 1Q21. Deal timeline will be driven by regulatory
review, where we don’t see major issues

PSA Groupe

UG FP

04/08/2020

14.395

We see a significant risk related to PSA shareholder vote. As per the recent quarterly results, Peugeot is in a better financial position than FCA, therefore Peugeot shareholders might want
to revise the merger ratio

Cardinal Resources

CDV AU

30/07/2020

0.73

We will be long CDV given limited downside and a substantial upside in case a further
bidding war erupts. We think there is still a more than 50% chance of a further war
given the apparent strategic nature of CDV for both bidders.

Sogou

SOGO US

29/07/2020

8.42

We see fairly high probability that a firm deal will ultimately be agreed

GrandVision

GVNV NA

24/07/2020

24.4

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 24, 2020

Acacia Communications

ACIA US

24/07/2020

67.6

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 24, 2020

FamilyMart

8028 JT

24/07/2020

2356

We believe that the minimum acceptance condition is likely to be met.  we don’t see a bump highly probable.

Neles

NELES FH

23/07/2020

12.1

We see limited upside, as a result of the valuation and the likelihood of an
improved offer. We see the Offer implied valuation on the higher end. Based on
recent comments and negative industry outlook we think that a counterbid is
less probable

Noble Energy

NBL US

21/07/2020

10.66

We expect the deal to close by end-October. We see limited deal risks and an outside
chance for a counter-bid

Fitbit

FIT US

17/07/2020

6.75

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 17, 2020

Qiagen

QIA GY

17/07/2020

42.1

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 17, 2020

Maxim

MXIM

17/07/2020

70.96

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight given the lengthy, 9-12 months,
deal timeline

National General

NGHC US

17/07/2020

33.82

The current deal spread is not attractive given the long timeline. Moreover, we
notice a long time passed from the date of confidentiality agreement (January
21, 2020) to the deal announcement, consequently there will not be speculation
of a counterbid

Vivint Solar

VSLR US

17/07/2020

20.15

The deal is driven by the high synergy potential. We believe the current spread
reflects the limited deal risk hence we would not recommend taking a position

58.com

WUBA US

15/07/2020

55.18

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas July 15, 2020

GCI Liberty

GLIBA US

10/07/2020

72.6

Overall, it seems that the parties are likely going to reach a firm agreement given a strong rationale behind the consolidation.

Drax Group

DRX LN

09/07/2020

251

Given the limited price reaction on the rumored takeover might offer a good entry for a long position DRX however, we note the low probability of a firm deal.

Brightsphere

BSIG US

07/07/2020

12.3

Although the rationale seems to be strong, we think that it might be difficult to meet Paulson’s/Board’s price expectations. We think a price in high teens will be needed to strike a deal.

Wright Medical

WMGI US

03/07/2020

29.7

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 3, 2020

58.com

WUBA US

03/07/2020

53.81

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 3, 2020

Ingenico

ING FP

03/07/2020

144.7

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 3, 2020

CoreLogic

CLGX US

02/07/2020

66.84

We believe that the most likely outcome will be a friendly takeover, however further upside is somewhat limited for CLGX given the company is struggling to keep pace with peers.

58.com

WUBA US

29/06/2020

54.1

We believe the situation seems to be attractive given the upside ($60-$65) – downside ($45-50). We think WUBA seems to be attractive for the consortium and given the shareholders’ opposition, there is a good chance that the offer is increased.

Adesto

IOTS US

26/06/2020

12.54

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 26, 2020

OptiComm

OPC AU

26/06/2020

5.34

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 26, 2020

NetEnt

NETB SS

25/06/2020

73.9

We expect regulatory approvals to be granted and deal to close in November. A counter-bid for NetEnt is unlikely given the attractive valuation of the offer.

OptiComm

OPC AU

25/06/2020

5.35

The deal risk is limited - reflected in the deal spread - however one may consider a position long OPC on a counterbid optionality justified by the narrow premium and historically not extreme valuation.

Jinmao Hotel

6139 HK

19/06/2020

4.64

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 19, 2020

Guyana Goldfields

GUY CN

19/06/2020

1.73

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 19, 2020

Jinmao Hotel

6139 HK

19/06/2020

4.64

We believe that it is likely that the deal will go through given there is no shareholder who could meet the blocking threshold of 3.3%, and therefore, we will start building position long in Jinmao at current spread of around 3.5%.

Grubhub Inc

GRUB US

19/06/2020

64

The break of GRUB/UBER negotiation was not surprising, given antitrust issues and disagreement on valuation. For TKWY we think that the deal is strategic and the valuation is on the higher end this time.

Guyana Goldfields

GUY CN

17/06/2020

1.73

Based on the Continental Gold precedent, we expect the deal to close in September 2020. We believe that the deal will be approved by both Canadian and Chinese regulators. We are not aware of regulatory approval requirement in Guyana

MoneyGram

MGI US

15/06/2020

3.15

The rationale seems to be strong and we believe that from the upside-downside perspective, it does make sense to go long MGI. We believe the downside should be around USD 2.50 and upside could be around USD 5.00.

Fitbit

FIT US

12/06/2020

6.11

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 12, 2020

Quiagen

QIA GY

12/06/2020

38.15

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 12, 2020

Craft Brew Alliance

BREW US

12/06/2020

15.39

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 12, 2020

Infigen Energy

IFN AU

12/06/2020

0.815

The offer represents an attractive valuation. We think that the likelihood of an improved offer is limited. We don’t see significant regulatory opposition, although we note that the screening process will likely be extended due to updated FIRB regulatory framework.

Hexaware

HEXW IN

09/06/2020

322.5

Based on precedents and peers, we see upside to the range INR 360-370. Promoter is unlikely to accept a final price significantly higher than this range in our view. They might make a somewhat lower counter-offer and succeed or less likely walk away completely)

Craft Brew Alliance

BREW US

09/06/2020

16.5

In our view the consolidated leverage ratio covenant is highly likely to be breached, which makes ABI’s bargaining position on a price cut strong, alternatively it opens the gate for ABI to walk away from the deal.

Masmovil Ibercom

MAS SM

08/06/2020

22.8

Given the low threshold (50% + 1) of the minimum acceptance and the irrevocable of around 30%, we believe that the offer is likely going to be successful, and therefore, we would not take any position.

Legg Mason

LM US

05/06/2020

50.05

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 5, 2020

Portola

PTLA US

05/06/2020

17.91

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 5, 2020

TD Ameritrade

AMTD US

05/06/2020

46.23

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 5, 2020

S Immo

SPI AV

05/06/2020

17

We think that the potential deal has strong strategic rationale for both parties and we note that the companies are already considerably interlinked. In our opinion, valuation continues to be the main hurdle. As a result of the current pandemic situation, Immofinanz might not be the only one interested; we think other bidders are likely to show up.

Meet Group

MEET US

03/06/2020

6.17

Given the short timeline, the limited deal risk and the limited downside, we believe that the current spread is somewhat wide. One may consider a position long MEET.

Adesto

IOTS US

29/05/2020

12.07

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 29, 2020

Semafo

SMF CN

29/05/2020

4.74

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 29, 2020

RIB Software

RIB GR

29/05/2020

25.32

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 29, 2020

Ingenico

ING FP

29/05/2020

124.2

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 29, 2020

LogMeIn

LOGM US

26/05/2020

84.07

While we do not envisage any hurdles from the regulatory perspective, we think the current spread seems to be too tight given that in the past, the bidder had difficulties with regards to the financing, and therefore, it might make sense to take a position short LOGM

Grubhub

GRUB US

26/05/2020

57.35

We think that the deal has strong strategic rationale for UBER. We highlight the notable antitrust risk, should there be an agreement on valuation. A counterbid from a European competitor cannot be ruled out.

Forescout

FSCT US

22/05/2020

23.4

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 22, 2020

Craft Brew Alliance

BREW US

22/05/2020

14.91

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 22, 2020

Adesto

IOTS US

22/05/2020

12

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however, we note the substantial downside in a deal break.

Vedanta Ltd

VEDL IN

20/05/2020

89.4

Despite long term financial benefits of the restructuring we don’t see VEDL minorities agreeing to forego their shares at such depressed levels. We expect them to demand a significantly higher price for their shares and we see no counter offer from VEDL given the book value (183 INR as of December, >200 INR in March 2020) is much higher than the floor price and its balance sheet is already stretched.

NichiiGakkan

9792 JP

19/05/2020

1.568

Ultimately, we believe that remaining shareholders are more likely than not to tender their shares as: • We see the offer price attractive based on: i) premium, ii) current management participation in tendering of their shares, iii) CBR and Deloitte valuation.

Portola

PTLA US

15/05/2020

17.82

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 15, 2020

Semafo

SMF CN

15/05/2020

4.64

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 15, 2020

Forescout

FSCT US

15/05/2020

29.52

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 15, 2020

Stanmore Coal

SMR AU

15/05/2020

1.00

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 15, 2020

Li & Fung

494 HK

15/05/2020

1.24

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 15, 2020

Royal Mail

RMG LN

15/05/2020

161.1

We think that a takeover offer is not certain and Vesa’s financial investment approach cannot be ruled out. We see RMG as overvalued on a standalone basis.

Craft Brew Alliance

BREW US

15/05/2020

15.05

The deal spread appears to be attractive, given the strong deal rationale and ABI’s ability to offer remedies to the DOJ. We note the substantial downside in a deal break.

Alacer Gold

ASR CN

15/05/2020

8.48

We will not take any position given the spread is not attractive.

Advanced Disposal

ADSW US

12/05/2020

32.58

We believe that the deal will close, however there might be further delay.

Portola

PTLA US

11/05/2020

17.9

We might go long PTLA given the valuation seems to be on a lower side.

Ingenico

ING FP

08/05/2020

123.5

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 8, 2020

Pargesa

PARG SW

08/05/2020

68.85

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 8, 2020

TD Ameritrade

AMTD US

08/05/2020

37.89

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 8, 2020

Wright Medical

WMGI US

08/05/2020

29.87

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 8, 2020

Allergan

AGN US

08/05/2020

193.02

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 8, 2020

Advanced Disposal

ADSW US

08/05/2020

32.56

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 8, 2020

Stemline

STML US

08/05/2020

12.18

We see room for a counterbid and the CVR trades in line with the historical CVR pay-out ratio. Based on that, we would recommend STML long until the launch of the tender offer.

Caesars Entertainment

CZR US

08/05/2020

9.48

As per the available information in the Debt Commitment Letter, we believe that the debt providing parties’ commitment will not lapse as at June 24, 2020, but it will remain in place in case the Merger Agreement is extended until latest December 24, 2020.

CVR review

N/A

06/05/2020

N/A

In this report we look at how M&A deals that included a CVR worked
out in the past cca 10 years.

Deutsche Wohnen

DWNI GR

05/05/2020

37

Given several hurdles the probability of a firm deal in the near term is limited.

Semafo

SMF CN

30/04/2020

3.5

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 30, 2020

Wright Medical

WMGI US

27/04/2020

29.12

We expect the deal to close in October/November 2020.

Semafo

SMF CN

27/04/2020

3.84

We will be long SMF based on a wild card counterbid scenario and limited downside (C$2.80-C$3.00) against the backdrop of increasing gold prices.

Northview Apartment REIT

NVU- CN

24/04/2020

32.9

Ultimately, we don’t see such approvals to be a significant hurdle to the proposed deal and we see them as timing issue.

Keihin

7251 JP

23/04/2020

2537

The deal spreads appear to be attractive, since the bidder seems to be committed to the deal, but we note that there is substantial downside for all three targets in case of a deal break.

Nissin Kogyo

7230 JP

23/04/2020

2194

The deal spreads appear to be attractive, since the bidder seems to be committed to the deal, but we note that there is substantial downside for all three targets in case of a deal break.

Showa

7274 JP

23/04/2020

2239

The deal spreads appear to be attractive, since the bidder seems to be committed to the deal, but we note that there is substantial downside for all three targets in case of a deal break.

Kemet

KEM US

17/04/2020

25.36

We believe that the deal is likely to close. We expect closing by September 2020.

Cineplex

CGX CN

16/04/2020

12.79

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas April 16, 2020

Tallgrass

TGE US

16/04/2020

22.39

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas April 16, 2020

WABCO

WBC US

16/04/2020

135.37

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas April 16, 2020

Legg Mason

LM US

16/04/2020

49.46

Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas April 16, 2020

Ingenico

ING FP

16/04/2020

103.55

Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas April 16, 2020

Stanmore Coal

SMR AU

16/04/2020

0.9706

Added to best ideas list in APAC Best Ideas April 16, 2020

Ingenico

ING FP

14/04/2020

109.7

We think that the deal is likely to close in its current form given the reasons mentioned below. Therefore, we will be long the deal spread.

58.com

WUBA US

09/04/2020

51.75

Downside appears to be limited with a substantial room to an improved offer thus we recommend a position long WUBA.

Caesars

CZR US

07/04/2020

6.05

As per available information, CZR is currently not in breach of its debt covenants, and we believe that ERI might not use it to exit the proposed deal

Stanmore Coal

SMR AU

07/04/2020

1

We think that the deal incorporates a risk free bet on an increased offer in case Golden fails to reach the compulsory acquisition threshold of 90%.

Li & Fung

494 HK

03/04/2020

1.1

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 3, 2020

Bolsas y Mercados Espanoles

BME SM

03/04/2020

33.16

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 3, 2020

Daejan Holdings

DJAN LN

03/04/2020

78.8

Given the limited deal risk the spread appears to be somewhat wide therefore
we recommend a position long DJAN.

Li & Fung

494 HK

03/04/2020

1.1

We would start building a position in 494 HK

Sixt Leasing

LNSX GY

02/04/2020

18.36

There might be upside to the current market price in case the deal closes before the June 23 AGM. This might be a stretch in our view given the BaFin approval required.

Legg Mason

LM US

31/03/2020

48.52

N/A

Semafo

SMF CN

30/03/2020

3.02

Counterbid for SMF cannot be ruled out given the valuation seems to be on a slightly lower side, and therefore, it might be attractive to go long SMF.

Isra Vision

ISR GY

27/03/2020

49.56

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 27, 2020

RIB Software

RIB GR

27/03/2020

28.26

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 27, 2020

Hitachi Chemical

4217 JP

27/03/2020

4605

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 27, 2020

Taubman Centers

TCO US

27/03/2020

47.85

We still find the current spread attractive and would recommend a position long TCO. We note that the downside is substantial in a deal break. We cannot completely rule out a price cut.

Delphi Tech

DLPH US

26/03/2020

9.85

N/A

RIB Software

RIB GR

25/03/2020

28.44

We find the current spread attractive and would be long RIB GY. The deal is expected to close in June 2020.

Aqua Venture Holdings

WAAS US

24/03/2020

26.75

N/A

Advanced Disposal

ADSW US

23/03/2020

31.3

We find the current spread attractive and would be long ADSW.

Tiffany & Co

TIF US

23/03/2020

122.6

We think that the probability of the deal going through in its current form is higher (90%) than implied by the market given the reasons mentioned below. Therefore, we will be long TIF

Advanced Disposal

ADSW US

20/03/2020

31.3

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 20, 2020

Tallgras Energy

TGE US

20/03/2020

14.1

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 20, 2020

Pargesa

PARG SW

20/03/2020

60.1

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 20, 2020

NIBC Holding

NIBC NA

20/03/2020

5.77

The deal spread of 45.4% appears to be somewhat wide but walkaway options are partially unknown (MAC definition) and price cut also cannot be completely ruled out.

Tegna

TGNA US

19/03/2020

13.35

N/A

Willis Towers

WLTW US

18/03/2020

149.6

Currently we are not going to take any position given the long deal timeline.

Pargesa

PARG SW

17/03/2020

52

We expect the deal to close by July 2020. The key risk appears to be the GBLB shareholder vote.

Cypress

CY US

16/03/2020

21.32

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas March 16, 2020

Metlifecare

MET NZ

13/03/2020

5.9

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 13, 2020

Bumrungrad Hospital

BH TB

13/03/2020

122.5

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 13, 2020

Wright Medical

WMGI US

13/03/2020

29.22

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 13, 2020

Tiffany

TIF US

13/03/2020

127.94

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 13, 2020

Cypress

CY US

13/03/2020

23.11

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 13, 2020

Wheelock and Co

20 HK

11/03/2020

57.31

Privatization - we would start building a position in Wheelock and Co., Ltd.

Forty Seven

FTSV US

11/03/2020

94.71

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however antitrust review might cause some delay and the downside is substantial therefore we would not open position long FTSV.

Qiagen

QIA GY

10/03/2020

36.53

N/A

Bumrungrad Hospital

BH TB

06/03/2020

132.5

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 6, 2020

Isra Vision

ISR GY

06/03/2020

49.44

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 6, 2020

Cypress

CY US

06/03/2020

16.37

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 6, 2020

Mobile Mini

MINI US

06/03/2020

38.42

N/A

Bumrungrad Hospital

BH TB

04/03/2020

132.5

The risk reward favors a position long BH.

Cineplex

CGX CN

03/03/2020

32.85

We believe that the current spread is attractive.

Pattern Energy Group Inc

PEGI US

02/03/2020

27.03

We think the upside-downside is attractive to go long PEGI given there is a good chance of CPPIB improving the terms based on the opposition from an activist and ISS

Tech Data Corp

TECD US

28/02/2020

142.39

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 28, 2020

WABCO

WBC US

28/02/2020

135.1

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 28, 2020

Taubman Centers

TCO US

28/02/2020

52.06

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 28, 2020

Cineplex

CGX CN

28/02/2020

32.99

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 28, 2020

Northview Apartment REIT

NVU- CN

28/02/2020

36.47

N/A

E*Trade Financial

ETFC US

26/02/2020

48.52

The deal spread does not appear to be attractive given the long timeline, the low chance for a counter-bid

UBI Banca

UBI IM

26/02/2020

3.98

At current stage, the key issue appears to be the offer price. It seems that the without a bump, the current offer likely to fail on UBI shareholder resistance. We see 10%-20% room for an improved ISP offer; however, ISP’s willingness to improve the offer appears to be limited. UBI’s downside is around €3.2- €3.3

National Storage REIT

NSR AU

24/02/2020

2.39

Whilst the valuation seems to be full, NSR seems to be a strategic asset given the market position it has built, and therefore, we think that Public Storage might face a counterbid. We think that the downside is limited to Public Storage’s indicative proposal (A$2.40) (we assign a low probability 10% of no-deal) and upside could be in the range of 5%-10% (from A$2.40) in case of a counterbid. Based on this, risk reward is attractive to go long NSR

Legg Mason

LM US

21/02/2020

50.46

N/A

Taubman Centers

TCO US

19/02/2020

53.18

Although the upside optionality is limited one may argue that the negligible deal risk offers a favorable risk/reward to enter a position long TCO.

Sprint

S US

18/02/2020

8.69

Update – based on strategic rationale and valuation, we don’t see more than 5% - 10% price cut.

FGL Holdings

FG US

18/02/2020

12.09

The current deal spread is not attractive, although the situation gives one a cheap option to play a counterbid scenario at least until the go-shop expiry (March 18, 2020).

RIB Software

RIB GR

17/02/2020

28.98

We expect the offer to complete by June 2020.

Cineplex

CGX CN

14/02/2020

33.81

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 14, 2020

Advanced Disposal

ADSW US

14/02/2020

33

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 14, 2020

Manila Water Company

MWC PM

12/02/2020

12.56

Although the offer price is clearly on the very low side from a valuation perspective, at the moment, we will not be long MWC given the uncertainty surrounding the contract negotiations as the tender offer would only be launched if the contracts are not renewed.

Gilat Satellite Networks

GILT US

11/02/2020

9.59

N/A

Forescout

FSCT US

11/02/2020

33.06

Given the short timeline and the limited deal risk, a position long FSCT offers a “cheap” option to capture the upside optionality in a counterbid until go-shop expires.

Webster

WBA AU

07/02/2020

2

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 7, 2020

Continental Gold

CNL CN

07/02/2020

5.45

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 7, 2020

Ingenico

ING FP

06/02/2020

129.9

The current deal spread is not attractive, although, given low risks to the deal, spread widening going forward might provide an opportunity to go long the spread.

HP Inc

HPQ US

05/02/2020

21.65

Further upside appears to be limited for either HPQ or XRX.

Delphi Tech

DLPH US

04/02/2020

15.26

N/A

Village Roadshow

VLR AU

30/01/2020

4

We might consider going long VRL given the presence of two credible bidders and decent upside (15%-25%) or even more.

CapitaLand Commercial Trust

CCT SP

29/01/2020

2.08

N/A

Cineplex

CGX CN

24/01/2020

34

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 24, 2020

Cypress

CY US

24/01/2020

23.46

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 24, 2020

WABCO

WBC US

24/01/2020

135.87

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 24, 2020

Dermira

DERM US

24/01/2020

18.83

We would not be long DERM as counterbid is an unlikely scenario given the company went through a comprehensive strategic review process.

Subsea 7

SUBC NO

24/01/2020

105.75

At current stage we see limited upside in a firm deal.

Quilter

QLT LN

23/01/2020

164.8

Based on the above we would not take a position in QLT at this time.

Cypress

CY US

22/01/2020

23.45

Update – on upside/downside, we recommend a position long CY

AECOM

ACM US

21/01/2020

50.33

We believe that it is agreement on price that might be the main hurdle to a potential transaction.

Allergan

AGN US

21/01/2020

192.68

We expect the deal to close in 1Q and believe that the risk-reward is attractive.

Acacia Communications

ACIA US

17/01/2020

68.66

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 17, 2020

Allergan

AGN US

17/01/2020

192.68

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 17, 2020

Cineplex

CGX CN

17/01/2020

33.93

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 17, 2020

EI Group

EIG LN

17/01/2020

284.2

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 17, 2020

Hexcel

HXL US

17/01/2020

77.47

The deal spread is effectively zero. Given the wild card scenarios of potential counterbids for either of the merging parties with similar probabilities, we would not recommend taking any position at current stage.

Terraform Power

TERP US

17/01/2020

17.28

We might consider going long TERP given the downside is limited to the current proposal and there might be upside in the range of 10%-15%.

Instructure

INST US

14/01/2020

47.7

Merger – we are tempted to set up a position long INST on a scenario of an improved offer amid little or no downside; however, in a base case, we believe that INST shareholders will approve the deal under current terms.

Altran

ALT FP

13/01/2020

14.1

N/A

Caesars

CZR

10/01/2020

13.54

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 10, 2020

Central European Media Enterprises

CETV US

10/01/2020

4.47

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 10, 2020

Cineplex

CGX CN

10/01/2020

33.9

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 10, 2020

Continental Gold

CNL CN

10/01/2020

5.43

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 10, 2020

Tech Data Corp

TECD US

10/01/2020

144.11

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 10, 2020

Sophos Group

SOPH LN

10/01/2020

565

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 10, 2020

Metlifecare

MET NZ

10/01/2020

6.87

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 10, 2020

Sirius Minerals

SXX LN

09/01/2020

5.35

We assign high probability to a firm offer given SXX’s financial distress, however we note that in a no deal situation the downside is substantial.

AquaVenture Holdings

WAAS US

08/01/2020

27.01

N/A

Metlifecare

MET NZ

07/01/2020

6.86

Deal risk appear to be limited, therefore we recommend a position long MET NZ. We note that downside in a deal break is substantial.

 

 

 

 

 

Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest).  As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level.

 

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