Chain Bridge Research | Coverage List

Coverage List

Stock	Ticker	Date Published	Market Price on Publication Date	Recommendation
Activision Blizzard	ATVI US	22/11/2022	82.15	Regulatory update
Vantage Towers	VTWR GR	22/11/2022	32.7	The domination agreement offers some upside (5-15%) which incentivizes minorities not to tender into the offer. This increases the probability of a domination agreement post offer.
IAA Inc	IAA US	17/11/2022	39.95	The main risks are the shareholder votes. Other IAA shareholders might oppose and put pressure on RBA and IAA boards to renegotiate
Atlantia	ATL IM	16/11/2022	22.93	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas November 16, 2022
HomeServe	HSV LN	16/11/2022	1191	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas November 16, 2022
Store Capital	STOR US	16/11/2022	31.7	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the limited deal risk. We recommend a position long STOR.
Altra Industrial Motion	AIMC US	15/11/2022	58.43	We expect the deal to receive a second request in the US as the companies have several horizontal overlaps and are competing with each other in some niche markets.
Tegna	TGNA US	11/11/2022	18.99	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2022
Euronav	EURN BB	11/11/2022	18.08	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2022
Euronav	EURN BB	10/11/2022	12.8	Given the high probability of a successful tender offer and limited deal risk, we believe the 2.5% deal spread is somewhat wide. Therefore, one may consider a position long deal spread with a view on a possibly shorter timeline.
ReadyTech	RDY AU	08/11/2022	4	We believe, PEP will come back with a sweetened offer, thus we would recommend a position long in RDY, especially as the spread is more than 10%. However, the downside could be around AUD3-3.1
Abiomed	ABMD US	07/11/2022	373.99	The CVR does not look attractive given the long expected timeline to trigger milestone payments.
Distell	DGH SJ	04/11/2022	17305	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 4, 2022
Tower Semiconductor	TSEM US	04/11/2022	48.21	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 4, 2022
Sierra Wireless	SW CN	28/10/2022	40.33	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 28, 2022
SeaSpine Holdings	SPNE US	27/10/2022	6.21	We see some risk regarding the shareholder approvals, however we are still optimistic that both shareholder groups will vote for the merger.
Albertsons	ACI US	27/10/2022	20.36	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. However, political opposition, timeline and final consideration related uncertainties make us refrain from recommending a position long deal spread.
Sierra Wireless	SW CN	26/10/2022	40.54	We believe regulators will approve the deal without any remedies, as there are no horizontal overlaps and vertical issues are limited. Based on that, we would go long SWIR.
Interstrust	INTER NA	21/10/2022	19.94	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 21, 2022
Swedish Match	SWMA SS	21/10/2022	111.5	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 21, 2022
Aveva Group	AVV LN	20/10/2022	3147	Update on shareholder opposition - We believe target shareholder approval could be guaranteed with an offer of around GBp3300. We see Schneider sweetening its bid given that it is highly likely that publicly opposing shareholders have a blocking stake
ForgeRock	FORG US	19/10/2022	22.54	Overall, we believe regulators will sign-off the deal given the fragmented nature of the IAM submarkets. We note the substantial downside.
Atlantia	ATL IM	14/10/2022	22.39	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 14, 2022
Pushpay	PPH NZ	14/10/2022	1.15	A firm deal announcement could be made around NZD1.4, but we see it hard for BGH to win PPH Board’s support as it could be hard to negotiate a satisfactory offer for both parties.
Myovant	MYOV US	14/10/2022	25.1	Limited downside and high probability of an improved offer makes us recommend a long MYOV.
Poshmark	POSH US	11/10/2022	17.66	Deal risk is limited; thus the spread is tight. We expect the deal to close in mid-Q1 2023
1Life Healthcare	ONEM US	07/10/2022	16.98	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 7, 2022
HomeServe	HSV LN	07/10/2022	1185	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 7, 2022
DXC Technology	DXC US	07/10/2022	26.89	Assuming a 5% probability to an offer at $45 and 25% at $35 we would take a position long DXC below ~$27.
Capricorn Energy	CNE LN	07/10/2022	245.4	The main risks are the shareholder votes, thus we would retain from a position at this point.
Pendragon	PDG LN	04/10/2022	27.2	We believe that it would be difficult for the Board not to support Hedin’s 29p offer after the Board and other Top 5 shareholders were willing to engage with a third party in August at the same price. The Board might use the time until the PUSU deadline to try and find a better deal before granting its support to Hedin’s bid.
BTRS Holdings	BTRS US	04/10/2022	9.27	Deal risk is limited. We expect the deal to close in Q1 2023.
Pendal	PDL AU	30/09/2022	4.5	The market seems to be pessimistic about the deal. We would expect a deal close by the end of mid/late Q1.
Cano Health	CANO US	29/09/2022	8.84	We assign a high probability to a firm deal announcement. While activist shareholder and an analyst assume a $14 possible takeout price, with a conservative $12 takeout a riskreward still favors a position long CANO.
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings	AAWW US	28/09/2022	95.88	The key risk is around debt financing, thus the deal spread is somewhat wide. We would refrain from a position long AAWW at this stage.
Tegna	TGNA US	23/09/2022	21.55	Update - We continue to consider the deal spread to be somewhat wide.
Avalara	AVLR US	23/09/2022	92.25	We would go long AVLR as we believe the majority of target shareholders will approve the deal, while we wouldn’t rule out a bump in the bid price if opposing shareholders gain enough support. However, we note that substantial (~30%) downside if the deal breaks on the vote.
Tyro Payments	TYR AU	16/09/2022	1.28	We expect that Tyro will receive a sweetened offer from either the consortium, another PE, or a strategic bidder.
GB Group	GBG LN	16/09/2022	5.94	Given the opportunistic timing of GTCR’s interest, there is a fair chance that talks fall apart. However, other PE firms might also turn up as GBG seems to be undervalued.
Signify Health	SGFY US	14/09/2022	29.07	The current 4.6% deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, assuming a deal close not earlier than mid-2023. We cannot rule out that vertical issues will be deeply scrutinized.
Brigham Minerals	MNRL US	13/09/2022	28.05	We believe that the 1Q2023 deal close guidance is manageable.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	09/09/2022	4750	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 9, 2022
Countryside Partnerships	CSP LN	09/09/2022	257.2	We see no major obstacles confronting the deal, as both shareholder and CMA approvals should be smooth. The deal spread appears to be wide, however we note that Vistry might be subject to a bid that could lead to a deal break.
Turquoise Hill Resources	TRQ CN	09/09/2022	41.23	Despite the materially improved bid from Rio Tinto, opposing shareholders have a good chance to derail the transaction.
RPS Group	RPS LN	05/09/2022	210	RPS is trading above terms on a counterbid/improved bid optionality, however we don’t see a counter bidder coming in, thus we would not take a position long RPS.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	02/09/2022	4750	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 2, 2022
Drilling Co of 1972	DRLCO DC	02/09/2022	369.4	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 2, 2022
AVEVA	AVV LN	02/09/2022	2810	We would recommend taking a position long AVEVA as we expect a firm deal in the range of GBp2950-3150.
Micro Focus International	MCRO LN	30/08/2022	519	The deal is expected to close in 1Q2023 due to the numerous regulatory approvals required.
Nearmap	NEA AU	26/08/2022	2.1	A counterbid from another private equity appears to be unlikely, however cannot be ruled out completely.
Recipe Unlimited	RECP CN	26/08/2022	19.85	One may consider a position long RECP going into deal announcement
Darktrace	DARK LN	22/08/2022	5.26	We believe there is good chance for an agreed firm deal with Thoma Bravo. The target might squeeze out an offer above 700p given the attractive valuation and possible counterbid interest.
OZ Minerals	OZL AU	18/08/2022	25.84	While deal rationale appears to be strong, the gap between parties’ valuation might be too large to overcome.
Atlantia	ATL IM	16/08/2022	22.84	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 16, 2022
Meggitt	MGGT LN	16/08/2022	792.8	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 16, 2022
ChemoCentryx	CCXI US	16/08/2022	50.89	Based on the minor overlap in AAV treatment, regulatory scrutiny is unlikely to arise.
Global Blood Therapeutics	GBT US	15/08/2022	66.75	An HSR re-filing might not be ruled out, however a second request appears to be unlikely based on the overlap and the competitive dynamics of the SCD space. Product related developments are not carved out of MAE, however no significant events are expected before deal close.
iRobot	IRBT US	10/08/2022	59.5	We would not take a position at this time given the regulatory risks, long deal timeline and IRBT’s challenges.
Ping Identity Holding Corp	PING US	09/08/2022	28.01	Deal risk is limited. We don’t see upside to the offer price thus chances of a counterbid are low.
Quilter	QLT LN	09/08/2022	119.5	While it is hard to see whether a firm deal will materialize, we see the deal rationale, and would expect an offer price between GBp145-160.
Infomedia	IFM AU	03/08/2022	1.59	We expect a firm deal announcement with final offer price around AUD1.75-1.85.
Serica Energy	SQZ LN	02/08/2022	355.5	We don’t see the deal being accretive for bidder shareholders at current terms. Even assuming significant synergies does not change the math.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	29/07/2022	4650	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 29, 2022
1Life Healthcare	ONEM US	29/07/2022	16.97	We believe that the deal might get a second request given the global scrutiny surrounding Big Tech, however it is likely to be approved given the lack of significant antitrust concerns
Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives	IEA US	29/07/2022	14.14	We don’t expect an extended antitrust review given the competitive and fragmented market. As per our valuation, counterbid is also possible.
Ironsource	IS US	28/07/2022	3.87	We see the merger as a good opportunity both for Ironsource and Unity shareholders, with some extra risk for Unity, as the leverage gained on a ad-tech asset might be badly timed.
Meridian Bioscience	VIVO US	25/07/2022	32.48	The deal spread reflects the DOJ investigation-related uncertainty.
Epizyme	EPZM US	21/07/2022	1.48	We see no major risk for the deal to finalize, but we are cautious about whether the shareholders will receive any CVR, although one may consider buying an almost free option for the possible CVR payouts.
Resolute Forest Products	RFP US	19/07/2022	20.22	We believe the deal will be approved with remedies after an extended Canadian antitrust review. The likelihood of the CVR payout seems highly uncertain.
Intertrust NV	INTER NA	15/07/2022	19.04	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 15, 2022
Vivo Energy	VVO LN	15/07/2022	152.8	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 15, 2022
Valora Holding	VALN SW	14/07/2022	259	The deal poses no major risk, therefore probability of close is high at offer terms. A counterbid cannot be ruled out, however we see it as a wild card scenario.
Autogrill Spa	AGL IM	14/07/2022	6.3	The transfer of Edizione’s 50.3% stake is currently expected to close in Q1 2023, subject to regulatory approvals, while the transaction inclusive of mandatory takeover offer settlement is expected to be completed by Q2 2023.
Twitter	TWTR US	12/07/2022	32.65	We believe that Musk’s arguments are not strong enough to justify deal termination. While Twitter has good chance to enforce specific performance, the court might prefer the parties agreeing in a cut price deal or awarding damages instead of forcing an unwilling buyer to acquire Twitter.
LifeWorks	LWRK CN	08/07/2022	31.11	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however timing of the deal and dividend differential changes make a position difficult to evaluate. Low deal risk and significant downside makes us cautious.
ContourGlobal	GLO LN	05/07/2022	2.525	One might consider going long GLO as deal risk seems to be limited. However, we note the substantial downside.
Radius Health	RDUS US	05/07/2022	10.48	We see some risk regarding the CVR payment condition and the 50+% tender offer condition too, not ruling out that the bidder consortium will raise the offer.
Swedish Match	SWMA SS	01/07/2022	104.55	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 1, 2022
Drilling Co of 1972	DRLCO DC	01/07/2022	282.6	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 1, 2022
Zendesk	ZEN US	01/07/2022	74	The mix of ZEN financing and the involvement of private debt from cash-rich shadow lenders makes us confident that the financing of the takeover will be less exposed to any debt market turmoil
Emis Group	EMIS LN	29/06/2022	1864	The deal spread does not appear to be attractive considering the estimated timeline, the overlaps between the companies, EMIS’ high market share in certain segments and involvement of sensitive healthcare data.
Shaftesbury	SHB LN	29/06/2022	546.5	We believe that the key risk to the deal is the SHB shareholder vote. As a standalone company, we see SHB shares trading around 600p, which makes an SHB shareholder approval unlikely.
Go-Ahead Group	GOG LN	29/06/2022	15.92	We believe there is good chance for a higher offer either from Kelsian or other parties.
Drilling Co of 1972	DRLCO DC	24/06/2022	311	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 24, 2022
Duke Realty Corp	DRE US	21/06/2022	51.44	We see limited deal risk around the shareholder votes as the deal rationale appears to be strong.
Turning Point Therapeutics	TPTX US	21/06/2022	74.46	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus, we recommend a long position TPTX. We note the substantial downside around $30/TPTX.
Yancoal Australia	YAL AU	16/06/2022	5.45	We expect Yankuang to sweeten its offer significantly to earn board and shareholder support.
Biffa	BIFF LN	14/06/2022	4.08	We believe there is good chance for a firm deal either at 445p or more. Based on our valuation, there is upside to the deal price thus target shareholders might be able to squeeze out a higher offer if an agreed firm deal materializes.
Accell Group	ACCEL NA	10/06/2022	58	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 10, 2022
Yamana Gold	YRI CN	10/06/2022	6.84	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however shareholder support might be in jeopardy based on the GFI share price reaction.
Capricorn Energy	CNE LN	08/06/2022	207.4	We believe the key risks are the shareholder votes, especially for the target as the promised synergies and strategic rational might not offset the lack of meaningful deal premium.
FirstGroup	FGP LN	03/06/2022	1.37	We believe the bidder might need to further increase its bid to secure board support.
VMWare	VMW US	01/06/2022	129	The deal spread does not appear to be attractive at this point given the long deal timeline.
ManTech International	MANT US	31/05/2022	95.4	Deal risk is limited. We wouldn’t expect a counterbid as there might have been a sale process before the agreement with Carlyle.
Siemens Gamesa	SGRE SM	31/05/2022	17.85	Given the actual market conditions and the outlook for Gamesa, we do not expect a bump in the offer price as the substantial downside for the standalone company increases the probability of the shareholders tendering into the offer
Cerner	CERN US	27/05/2022	94.68	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 27, 2022
HomeServe	HSV LN	27/05/2022	1163	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the upside optionality to the deal timeline and the limited deal risk. We note the significant downside.
Swedish Match	SWMA SS	24/05/2022	101.85	We expect the deal to go through as we see no major competition issues. We also see some upside, as PM could raise the offer price under SWMA shareholder pressure.
Black Knight	BKI US	23/05/2022	71.81	The current spread reflects the lengthy deal timeline and the probability of the deal falling apart. We also note that there is no litigation obligation and divestiture obligation is limited to BKI assets.
Tower Semiconductor	TSEM US	20/05/2022	45.69	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022
Tegna	TGNA US	20/05/2022	20.99	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022
Columbia Care	CCHW CN	20/05/2022	2.69	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 20, 2022
Silicon Motion Technology Corp	SIMO US	20/05/2022	90.67	We would not take a position long SIMO at this point given the lengthy timeline. The Chinese approval poses substantial risk to the deal, in our view.
Alliance Aviation	AQZ AU	19/05/2022	4.01	We believe that the antitrust risk is high. The ACCC’s comments after its 3-year review of Qantas’ original minority stake purchase, the limited number of competitors in the target’s key markets and Alliance’s collaboration agreement with Virgin make us cautious.
Zynga	ZNGA US	20/05/2022	8.18	Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas May 16, 2022
Biohaven	BHVN US	16/05/2022	141	Deal risks appear to be limited. We note that product related adverse events are not carved out of MAE.
Twitter	TWTR US	11/05/2022	47.26	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Assuming a $30 downside and an early August deal close deal closing probability is around 72%.
Shaw Communications	SJR/B CN	09/05/2022	34.87	The key question is whether Rogers believes that deal benefits (larger cable business, 5G spectrum) outweigh the competitive threat posed by a stronger Quebecor. We are less convinced, that Rogers would vigorously pursue the deal in case Quebecor is not approved as a buyer before the extended Outside date, July 31.
Activision	ATVI US	06/05/2022	77.84	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022
Accell Group	ACCEL NA	06/05/2022	57	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022
Atlantia	ATL IM	06/05/2022	22.85	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022
Meggitt	MGGT LN	06/05/2022	778	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 6, 2022
Link	LNK AU	06/05/2022	4.96	We would take a long position on Link as we think the Woodford issue will not materialize in any public finding from the FCA in the upcoming months, but we would wait the next merger update to assess the possible timeline delay to mitigate the downside risk.
Ubisoft Entertainment	UBI FP	04/05/2022	43.01	We believe Ubisoft is likely to receive indicative proposals from either PEs or strategic buyers.
Datto	MSP US	04/05/2022	34.61	The deal spread appears to be wide given the limited deal risk. The number of competitors makes a rigorous antitrust review unlikely. Further, in case of an extended review, the divestiture obligation makes a successful deal close likely.
South Jersey Industries	SJI US	29/04/2022	34.42	The long timeframe and potential regulatory risks do not justify a position long SJI for now. However, the deal will ultimately be approved in our view, after a thorough review.
Autogrill Spa	AGL IM	27/04/2022	6.9	The deal has a good chance of approval in our view, given the complementary nature (both in terms of geographic and product category exposure) of the businesses and factors that highlight the competitiveness of the travel retail market and the bidding for concessions:
Ramsay Health	RHC AU	25/04/2022	84.27	We expect a firm deal to be struck most likely under these conditions, however we cannot rule out a slightly higher offer, as Ramsay’s books may forecast a brighter than expected future as covid restrictions are almost completely gone
Citrix	CTXS US	22/04/2022	101.5	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 22, 2022
Ferro	FOE US	22/04/2022	22.01	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 22, 2022
Twitter	TWTR US	22/04/2022	47.08	Given Musk’s commitment to the deal and the potential upside to the current proposal one may consider a position long TWTR. We note the substantial downside which could be even lower once Musk becomes a seller of TWTR shares.
Atlantia	ATL IM	20/04/2022	22.79	A counter bid or a higher offer appear unlikely. The deal could close in 3Q2022.
Intersect ENT	XENT US	14/04/2022	27.96	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 14, 2022
Euronav	EURN BB	14/04/2022	11.82	Update - We are altering our view laid out in our April 13 initiation report. As a successful deal close without CMB’s support is unlikely, there is a risk that parties reconsider their intention to combine or in case they push forward with a firm deal, it might fail on shareholder opposition. We no longer recommend setting up the deal spread.
Nielsen Holdings	NLSN US	14/04/2022	27.24	Despite WindAcre’s opposition, bidders have a good shot to succeed with takeover offer, in our view. The key question is whether WindAcre manages to convince enough Nielsen shareholders to oppose the transaction.
Euronav	EURN BB	13/04/2022	11.82	Given the high probability of a firm deal and a tighter spread post announcement, one may consider a long position on the deal spread.
Neenah	NP US	08/04/2022	38.23	Regulatory risk is limited. Shareholder opposition might arise as the value of SWM’s all-share offer is lower than NP’s current share price.
Pendal	PDL AU	08/04/2022	5.27	We expect the Pendal Board to reject the offer under these terms, as it is opportunistic and undervalues PDL. As the Fund Management sector needs to consolidate, we expect PPT to sweeten its bid.
Spirit Airlines	SAVE US	07/04/2022	26.28	We see the SAVE/ULCC merger more viable from a regulatory perspective than a SAVE/JBLU combination. The SAVE board, however might find it hard to turn down JBLU’s offer.
Columbia Care	CCHW CN	05/04/2022	3.59	The deal spread appears to be wide given the limited downside, therefore would recommend a position long the deal spread.
Western Areas	WSA AU	01/04/2022	3.65	We think that the bullish outlook of nickel and the pressure put on IGO by the Indepent Expert’s report and WSA shareholders will result in a sweetend offer price. Downside risk seems limited based on WSA valuation.
LHC Group	LHCG US	31/03/2022	168	We would not be surprised if the deal received a second request given UNH’s size and its acquisition of Landmark Health.
Anaplan	PLAN US	29/03/2022	65.13	Deal risk is limited. We attach low chance to a counterbid given the fair premium and the support of activist shareholders.
Neles	NELES FH	25/03/2022	9.11	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 25, 2022
Pearson	PSON LN	25/03/2022	767	A 30%-50% probability of an improved and agreed offer around 900p-950p makes us believe that the current PSON share price offers a favorable risk/reward to enter a position long PSON below ~770p.
Turquoise Hill Resources	TRQ CN	23/03/2022	38.24	We believe Rio Tinto needs to improve its offer materially to succeed.
Mediaset Espana	TL5 SM	22/03/2022	4.59	We expect MES shareholders to reject the offer and MFE to return with a sweetened bid to pursue its European expansion plans. TL5 downside appears to be limited at these levels.
Mandiant	MNDT US	18/03/2022	22.15	We would take a position long MNDT at current stage.
Avast	AVST LN	18/03/2022	568	Our main concern is that remedies might be difficult to structure.
CareTech	CTH LN	11/03/2022	670	We see likely that a firm deal announcement will happen before the April 4 deadline with an offer price around GBp725-775.
Houghton Mifflin Harcourt	HMHC US	08/03/2022	20.88	We believe the limited downside, the short timeframe, and the substantial upside offer a favorable risk-reward for a position long HMHC.
Nuance	NUAN US	04/03/2022	55.99	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 4, 2022
Z Energy	ZEL NZ	04/03/2022	3.68	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 4, 2022
Oxford Instruments	OXIG LN	04/03/2022	23	We believe a firm deal has strong strategic rationale, as the product portfolios are rather complementary. We see no upside to the offer price; however downside is significant in a no-deal situation. The Ukrainian war might also affect the chances of a firm deal.
AGL Energy	AGL AU	04/03/2022	7.42	We expect the bidder to come back with an improved offer. We expect a lengthy regulatory review in case a firm deal is reached.
Tegna	TGNA US	02/03/2022	22.84	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however the lengthy deal timeline makes us cautious recommending a position long TGNA this time.
Z Energy	ZEL NZ	02/03/2022	3.64	The key risk is timing, as the NZCC in our view is likely to require upfront divestiture of the Gull business.
MoneyGram International	MGI US	25/02/2022	10.75	Deal risk appears to be limited. We recommend a position long MGI going into the go-shop period, as the current deal spread offers a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid.
Tower Semiconductor	TSEM US	23/02/2022	46.87	We expect the deal to receive regulatory approvals given the complementary nature and the limited market share in the foundry business. The key question appears to be timing of the SAMR decision.
US Ecology	ECOL US	22/02/2022	47.2	Considering a mid 2Q 2022 deal close the deal spread is at the upper end of a plain vanilla transaction. However we cannot completely rule out a rigorous review and some delay in the deal timeline. This makes us refrain from recommending a position long ECOL at current stage. Ultimately we see the deal being closed.
John Menzies	MNZS LN	18/02/2022	5.83	We believe there is a good chance for a firm deal either at 605p or more
BioDelivery Sciences	BDSI US	16/02/2022	5.56	The deal spread does not appear to be attractive. An extended review appears unlikely, therefore the deal could close in line with the 1Q guidance.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	15/02/2022	4330	Added to best ideas list in APAC Best Ideas February 15, 2022
Zynga	ZNGA US	15/02/2022	9.05	Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 15, 2022
Cerner	CERN US	15/02/2022	92.03	Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 15, 2022
Vivo Energy	VVO LN	15/02/2022	133	Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas February 15, 2022
VIB Vermoegen	VIH1 GR	11/02/2022	52.8	We don’t see significant chance for a higher offer from DIC. The effective minimum acceptance condition of 18.5% is quite low and waivable. VIB appears to be overvalued compared to its peers and DIC faces constraints to improve its bid (leverage, FFO accretion).
Cedar Fair	FUN US	11/02/2022	59.71	Reaching a firm deal might be difficult and a hostile offer seems unlikely given FUN’s strong takeover defenses. We note the substantial upside above $75. Downside in a no deal situation is around $50.
Spirit Airlines	SAVE US	11/02/2022	27.3	The merger is likely to face antitrust scrutiny in the US. The merging parties compete in several overlapping city-pairs, where they would have ability and incentive to raise prices after the combination.
Citrix	CTXS US	04/02/2022	102.9	Deal risks appear to be limited, however we find the current spread unattractive.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	02/02/2022	4430	We believe the transaction will receive the necessary approvals in the expected timeline, offering attractive upside potential.
Neo Lithium	NLC CN	28/02/2022	6.49	Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas January 28, 2022
Accell Group	ACCEL NA	22/01/2022	57.5	Given that deal risks are limited, one may consider a position long ACCEL on a possible counterbid. However we see this as a wild card scenario.
Bluerock Residential Growth REIT	BRG US	27/01/2022	26.64	We believe deal risks are limited. As per our valuation, the share consideration from the spin-off may be worth more than what is implied in the current market price of BRG.
Zogenix	ZGNX US	25/01/2022	25.93	We expect that the regulatory review will be short given we see no serious antitrust issues. The current market price appears to offer a cheap option on the $2 CVR, which seems to have a high likelihood to be paid out.
Activision	ATVI US	21/01/2022	82.15	We would not take a position at this time as the deal review will drag into 2023
Clinigen	CLIN LN	21/01/2022	907	The probability of an improved offer or a counterbid is low. However, considering the limited deal risk the deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. We recommend a position long CLIN.
Aspire Global	ASPIRE SS	20/01/2022	107.8	The deal seems to be sealed as there is major cross-ownership between the companies. Due to the minimal deal risk, the deal spread appears to be attractive, but we note that Aspire Global was not very liquid prior to deal announcement.
Ferro	FOE US	18/01/2022	21.65	Added to best ideas list in Best Ideas January 18, 2022
Siltronic	WAF GY	18/01/2022	127	Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas January 18, 2022
Link	LNK AU	18/01/2022	5.54	We see upside potential in the offer price, as Link’s PEXA stake appreciated since deal announcement. On the other hand, Link has been in sale talks for more than a year and has not traded at the offer price for almost 2 years.
Apria	APR US	14/01/2022	37.29	We expect the deal to close in April / early May 2022.
Zynga	ZNGA US	14/01/2022	9.06	The deal spread appears to be wide. We recommend a position long ZNGA going into the go-shop period as a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid.
Drilling Co of 1972	DRLCO DC	07/01/2022	267.8	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 7, 2022
Neo Lithium	NLC CN	07/01/2022	6.32	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 7, 2022
Ferro	FOE US	07/01/2022	21.8	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 7, 2022
IHS Markit	INFO US	07/01/2022	126	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 7, 2022
Ortho Clinical Diagnostics	OCDX US	07/01/2022	20.21	Despite the low-ball offer, target shareholder support seems to be secured as Carlyle irrevocably undertaken to vote in favour of the deal.
Verso	VRS US	07/01/2022	26.86	Deal risk is limited. We see a low probability of a counterbid and we do not recommend a position long VRS at current stage.
Mapletree North Asia Commercial Trust	MAGIC SP	06/01/2022	1.09	While there might be long term rationale in broadening MCT’s investment mandate, we see risks to shareholder approval on both sides
Terminix	TMX US	23/12/2021	44.01	We see risks to the deal given the lack of competition on the national level post-merger. The divestiture cap might not be sufficient and finding a viable buyer for divestitures might prove difficult.
Nobina	NOBINA SS	22/12/2021	106.1	The key risk appears to be the 90% minimum acceptance which can be waived, but as the bidder intends to delist Nobina, it might not be satisfied with a smaller acceptance rate. We note that the SEK 108 price represents a more than 20% premium to Nobina’s all-time high price.
Cerner	CERN US	22/12/2021	90.67	We expect the deal to receive approvals and close in late 1H2022 or early 2H2022.
Akka Technologies	AKA FP	17/12/2021	48.38	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 17, 2021
GCP Applied Technologies	GCP US	17/12/2021	31.82	The deal spread is tight. Given the several product overlaps, we expect extended antitrust reviews, especially in the US.
Soliton	SOLY US	15/12/2021	22.58	Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas December 15, 2021
Intertrust NV	INTER NA	15/12/2021	19.62	We see no major issues regarding regulatory approvals, but the process will take time. One might, however go long Intertrust with a view of a wild-card offer from the party that has offered EU22 during the process.
Mimecast	MIME US	15/12/2021	79.46	Currently we see a superior offer as a wild card scenario however the spread and the low deal risk make us recommend a position long MIME on counterbid optionality.
Arena Pharmaceuticals	ARNA US	14/12/2021	91.6	We would not take a position at this time given the likely extended regulatory review and the significant downside.
Z Energy	ZEL NZ	10/12/2021	3.49	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 10, 2021
Intersect ENT	XENT US	10/12/2021	27.04	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 10, 2021
Momentive Global	MNTV US	08/12/2021	21.6	The deal is likely to fail. Given our standalone estimations and current share price we recommend a position long ZEN however we would not, or not fully hedge with MNTV short given the counterbid probability.
True Corp	TRUE TB	07/12/2021	43.75	Despite the obvious antitrust issues, the deal might be approved after positive comments from Thai regulators.
Sportsman's Warehouse	SPWH US	03/12/2021	13.61	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 3, 2021
Aareal Bank	ARL GR	01/12/2021	28.96	The deal spread is tight. Given the shareholder opposition, one might speculate on a better offer, however, downside is significant in our view.
Distell	DGH SJ	01/12/2021	160.96	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however the lengthy deal review, potential shareholder opposition and antitrust hurdles (no clear visibility on divestiture commitments) makes us refrain recommending a position long Distell.
Vivo Energy	VVO LN	30/11/2021	131.6	We expect the deal to close in late 2Q or early 3Q.
Vonage	VG US	24/11/2021	20.655	The deal spread does not appear to be attractive.
Drilling Co of 1972	DRLCO DC	23/11/2021	261.2	We believe regulators will approve the deal given the fragmented nature of the offshore drilling industry. We expect shareholders to support the transaction as well.
Ferro	FOE US	19/11/2021	21.38	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 19, 2021
Nuance Communications	NUAN US	19/11/2021	55.25	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 19, 2021
Praemium	PPS AU	18/11/2021	1.53	We expect NWL to make an improved offer and see up to 20% upside, and and 15-20% downside in case no firm deal materializes.
McAfee	MCFE US	17/11/2021	25.59	There is a 45 day go-shop period. As deal risk and downside is limited we recommend a position long MCFE. However, we note that counterbid probability is low given the lack of strategic bidders and PE bidders facing leverage hurdles.
Afterpay	APT AU	12/11/2021	116.42	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 12, 2021
NeoPhotonics	NPTN US	11/11/2021	15.6	The deal spread appears to be tight given the long timeline. A counter bid appears less likely after both IIVI and MKSI made acquisitions over the year.
Rogers Corp	ROG US	11/11/2021	269.19	We expect an extended antitrust review given the complex nature of the overlapping products.
Daily Mail	DMGT LN	10/11/2021	1130	The deal spread of 7.6% appears to be wide given the limited downside around 1000p.
Ausnutria	1717 HK	09/11/2021	9.42	We believe that the deal will receive regulatory approvals, however there are risks to the new share issue which is a condition to the stake purchase and the mandatory offer.
RR Donnelley & Sons	RRD US	03/11/2021	9.11	We believe that Chatham’s improved proposal is likely to be superior. We cannot rule out multiple rounds of bids given the ample of upside based on our LBO calculation
PAE	PAE US	29/10/2021	9.91	We would not rule out a refiling requirement or a second request given parties are close competitors. Most peers have limited room to make an all cash counter bid.
Senex	SXY AU	29/10/2021	4.44	The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be attractive
Playtech	Ptech LN	27/10/2021	6.74	We believe shareholders will approve the deal given the fair offer
Siltronic	WAF GY	25/21/2021	133.95	We continue to recommend a position long WAF on the tendered line, given that the downside is limited in a standalone case and any other scenario (end date extension with or without compensation, deal close before the end date) offers substantial upside.
Sportsman's Warehouse	SPWH US	22/10/2021	17.66	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 22, 2021
Entra ASA	ENTRA NO	20/10/2021	210.2	We believe there is a good chance that sooner or later Castellum will make a move for Entra.
Z Energy	ZEL NZ	20/10/2021	3.63	We believe that the deal will receive regulatory approvals, however there are risks to timing.
Neo Lithium	NLC CN	19/10/2021	6.26	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the limited downside and a low probability of the deal being blocked.
Sportsman's Warehouse	SPWH US	15/10/2021	17.75	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 15, 2021
Tronox	TROX US	12/10/2021	24.89	The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be attractive.
Forterra	FRTA US	08/10/2021	23.74	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 8, 2021
Acceleron	XLRN US	08/10/2021	175.29	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Although delays cannot completely be ruled out we see some upside optionality in a counterbid situation. One may consider a position long XLRN.
Blue Prism Group	PRSM LN	08/10/2021	11.33	Despite the low-ball offer and shareholder revolt, we see limited chance for a bump as the standalone prospect of the company seems not too bright.
Shaw Communications	SJR/B CN	06/10/2021	38.14	We believe that the deal will receive approval, however remedies might be required (behavioral and/or local divestitures to reduce BDU market share)
Kirkland Lake Gold	KL CN	01/10/2021	52.76	We don’t expect a counterbid, therefore we believe shareholders will vote in favour of the deal
Smartgroup	SIG AU	30/09/2021	9.5	The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be attractive at the current market price.
Forterra	FRTA US	24/09/2021	23.51	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 24, 2021
Stagecoach	SGC LN	24/09/2021	84.05	We see risk of a longer regulatory review and possible remedies in case a firm deal is agreed.
AusNet Services	AST AU	24/09/2021	2.55	The deal spread is tight. In case of a firm bid, we believe the key risk is the shareholder approval. However, regulatory scrutiny or antitrust concerns will pose a risk to the deal as well.
Itamar Medical	ITMR IT	24/09/2021	322.3	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide but substantial downside makes us refrain from recommending a position long IMTR
Kadmon	KDMN US	17/09/2021	8.8	Given that Belumonsudil study data is expected before deal close and any issues around the product are not carved out of MAE and the risk of a longer timeline (second request or standard form letter form the FTC), we would not recommend any position at this stage.
Oil Search	OSH AU	16/09/2021	3.9	We believe the key risk is the possible regulatory scrutiny in Papua New Guinea. Santos and Oil Search will likely have to make serious commitments to PNG.
Afterpay	APT AU	15/09/2021	123.62	Added to best ideas list in APAC Best Ideas September 15, 2021
Neles	NELES FH	15/09/2021	12.545	Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas September 15, 2021
Siltronic	WAF1 GY	15/09/2021	138	Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas September 15, 2021
Cerved	CERV IM	10/09/2021	10.2	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 10, 2021
Hill-Rom	HRC US	10/09/2021	151,68	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, however we note that the China review might take a while. A refiling for HSR approval cannot be ruled out; however a second request has a very limited chance in our view.
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum	SOBI SS	10/09/2021	242,1	Support from the board and anchor shareholders, the decent premium and recent regulatory setbacks decrease the likelihood of an upside scenario. However given the high acceptance condition, the lack of alternative transaction structures to get to 100% and comments from AP4 , a position long SOBI slightly above the offer price might be attractive in our view.
Ferro Corp	FOE US	08/09/2021	21.05	We believe regulators will approve the deal after a thorough review with a high possibility of remedies in some niche segments.
Enable Midstream Partners	ENBL US	03/09/2021	8.16	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021
Forterra	FRTA US	03/09/2021	23.69	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021
Shaw Communications	SJR/B CN	03/09/2021	37.25	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021
Akka Technologies	AKA FP	03/09/2021	47.2	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021
Translate Bio	TBIO US	03/09/2021	37.65	We don’t expect a second request, however the deal spread appears to be too tight at this point for a long TBIO. One might, however bet on an unlikely second request with a position short in the target going into the expiry of the HSR waiting period.
Five9	FIVN US	03/09/2021	167.5	At current stage we recommend a position long FIVN going into the shareholder vote, given the limited downside and some optionality for an improved offer.
Kansas City Southern	KSU US	01/09/2021	280.67	A long position KSU appears to be a safe bet until at least September 12 (the expiry of CP’s offer), at the current 2.7% spread.
Trillium Therapeutics	TRIL CN	31/08/2021	17.29	We see limited risk regarding antitrust scrutiny despite Pfizer’s overlapping development asset. Based on that, we would go long TRIL.
Maxim	MXIM US	27/08/2021	103.14	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 27, 2021
Soliton	SOLY US	27/08/2021	20.72	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 27, 2021
Soliton	SOLY US	27/08/2021	20.72	We estimate limited downside of around $19.50 and a deal close in early 2022. The implied deal closing probability is approximately 40%. Based on that, we believe that the current spread of 8.3% is somewhat wide thus, we recommend a SOLY long.
Hella	HLE GR	23/08/2021	60.84	We believe there is no upside to the deal terms as there is no minimum acceptance and counterbid is unlikely. Given the complementary nature of the product portfolios, we don’t see antitrust issues.
Sportsman's Warehouse	SPWH US	20/08/2021	17.65	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 20, 2021

Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest). As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level.

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