Coverage List

Stock

Ticker

Date Published

Market Price on Publication Date

Recommendation

Kadmon

KDMN US

17/09/2021

8.8

Given that Belumonsudil study data is expected before deal close and any issues around the product are not carved out of MAE and the risk of a longer timeline (second request or standard form letter form the FTC), we would not recommend any position at this stage.

Oil Search

OSH AU

16/09/2021

3.9

We believe the key risk is the possible regulatory scrutiny in Papua New Guinea. Santos and Oil Search will likely have to make serious commitments to PNG.

Afterpay

APT AU

15/09/2021

123.62

Added to best ideas list in APAC Best Ideas September 15, 2021

Neles

NELES FH

15/09/2021

12.545

Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas September 15, 2021

Siltronic

WAF1 GY

15/09/2021

138

Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas September 15, 2021

Cerved

CERV IM

10/09/2021

10.2

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 10, 2021

Hill-Rom

HRC US

10/09/2021

151,68

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, however we note that the China review might take a while. A refiling for HSR approval cannot be ruled out; however a second request has a very limited chance in our view.

Swedish Orphan Biovitrum

SOBI SS

10/09/2021

242,1

Support from the board and anchor shareholders, the decent premium and recent regulatory setbacks decrease the likelihood of an upside scenario. However given the high acceptance condition, the lack of alternative transaction structures to get to 100% and comments from AP4 , a position long SOBI slightly above the offer price might be attractive in our view.

Ferro Corp

FOE US

08/09/2021

21.05

We believe regulators will approve the deal after a thorough review with a high possibility of remedies in some niche segments.

Enable Midstream Partners

ENBL US

03/09/2021

8.16

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021

Forterra

FRTA US

03/09/2021

23.69

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021

Shaw Communications

SJR/B CN

03/09/2021

37.25

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021

Akka Technologies

AKA FP

03/09/2021

47.2

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021

Translate Bio

TBIO US

03/09/2021

37.65

We don’t expect a second request, however the deal spread appears to be too tight at this point for a long TBIO. One might, however bet on an unlikely second request with a position short in the target going into the expiry of the HSR waiting period.

Five9

FIVN US

03/09/2021

167.5

At current stage we recommend a position long FIVN going into the shareholder vote, given the limited downside and some optionality for an improved offer.

Kansas City Southern

KSU US

01/09/2021

280.67

A long position KSU appears to be a safe bet until at least September 12 (the expiry of CP’s offer), at the current 2.7% spread.

Trillium Therapeutics

TRIL CN

31/08/2021

17.29

We see limited risk regarding antitrust scrutiny despite Pfizer’s overlapping development asset. Based on that, we would go long TRIL.

Maxim

MXIM US

27/08/2021

103.14

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 27, 2021

Soliton

SOLY US

27/08/2021

20.72

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 27, 2021

Soliton

SOLY US

27/08/2021

20.72

We estimate limited downside of around $19.50 and a deal close in early 2022. The implied deal closing probability is approximately 40%. Based on that, we believe that the current spread of 8.3% is somewhat wide thus, we recommend a SOLY long.

Hella

HLE GR

23/08/2021

60.84

We believe there is no upside to the deal terms as there is no minimum acceptance and counterbid is unlikely. Given the complementary nature of the product portfolios, we don’t see antitrust issues.

Sportsman's Warehouse

SPWH US

20/08/2021

17.65

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 20, 2021

Ultra Electronics

ULE LN

20/08/2021

3,372

Parties’ 1Q deal close expectation might be optimistic though as the Ultra deal might get more scrutiny compared to earlier acquisitions of UK defense companies

Sanderson Farms

SAFM US

16/08/2021

195.25

The deal spread is not attractive in our view given the long regulatory timeline.

Afterpay

APT AU

13/08/2021

132.01

We believe that shareholders will vote in favour of the merger as the deal rationale to merge appears to be strong.

Intersect Ent

XENT US

10/08/2021

27.83

We don’t see serious regulatory risks with regard to the transaction.

Inter Pipeline

IPL CN

06/08/2021

19.96

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 6, 2021

Meggitt

MGGT LN

06/08/2021

7.25

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, but the lengthy deal review makes us reluctant to enter a position long MGGT at this point.

Akka Technologies

AKA FP

29/07/2021

47.02

We expect no extended antitrust reviews and a deal timeline of around 10 months.

Veoneer

VNE US

27/07/2021

31.36

We attach low probability to a counter bid given VNE said it had been in discussion with other parties before the agreement with MGA.

PPD

PPD US

23/07/2021

46.16

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 23, 2021

Slack Technologies

WORK US

23/07/2021

45.2

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 23, 2021

Sumo Group

SUMO LN

23/07/2021

4.99

We believe the key risk is the CFIUS approval. Regulatory scrutiny might emerge from the handling of American users’ data, however if needed, the US business can be divested in order to close the deal.

Five9

FIVN US

22/07/2021

189.80

The current spread does not compensate for the lengthy deal timeline.

Avast

AVST LN

20/07/2021

598.00

As per our valuation, a deal appears to be feasible even at around GBP6.50

Stamps.com

STMP US

16/07/2021

5,908

We would recommend a position long going into the go-shop period as a cheap bet on a counterbid. Based on our LBO valuation, we see room for a higher offer.

Willis Towers Watson

WLTW US

15/07/2021

221.91

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas July 15, 2021

Cerved

CERV IM

15/07/2021

9.9

Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas July 15, 2021

Alexion

ALXN US

15/07/2021

180.51

Removed from best ideas list in Euro/Americas Best Ideas July 15, 2021

Sydney Airport

SYD AU

15/07/2021

7.81

Given that standpoints on valuation appear to be far away and considering the substantial downside we do not recommend taking a position long SYD at current stage.

Neles

NELES FH

12/07/2021

13.49

We believe there is no upside to the deal terms. Given Valmet’s ~30% stake in Neles, counterbid is very unlikely.

WM Morrison

MRW LN

09/07/2021

266

We see limited upside for counterbidders up to 260p-270p. Based on that we do not recommend long MRW above 250p

Grandvision

GVNV NA

02/07/2021

28.25

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 2, 2021

UDG Healthcare

UDG LN

02/07/2021

1068

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 2, 2021

QAD

QADA

02/07/2021

86.44

We believe shareholders will vote in favour of the merger given the fair offer. A counter bid is unlikely as the Lopker family has a huge influence on the company and Pamela Lopker will retain a significant ownership interest after the deal and will continue to serve on the QAD Board.

Kindred Biosciences

KIN US

30/06/2021

9.16

We expect the deal to close in September 2021. An extended review appears to be unlikely.

Lydall

LDL US

29/06/2021

60.9

We believe an extended antitrust review is unlikely. Other than a few overlaps, the product portfolios can be seen complementary, in our view.

Grandvision

GVNV NA

25/06/2021

24.85

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 25, 2021

WM Morrison

MRW LN

25/06/2021

234

We believe that probability of a firm deal and potential upside compensates the downside risk.

Raven Industries

RAVN US

25/06/2021

57.65

The deal spread does not appear to be attractive given the long deal timeline and possible vertical issues with the merger. Also, as per the merger call there was a competitive sale process before deal announcement.

Solarpack SA

SPK SM

21/06/2021

26.2

The deal spread is tight. Given EQT can waive the 75%+1 minimum acceptance and has 50%+1 by the irrevocable undertakings, we see no upside to the deal terms.

Willis Towers Watson

WLTW US

18/06/2021

225.2

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 18, 2021

Deutsche Wohnen

DWNI GY

18/06/2021

51.48

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 18, 2021

Cloudera

CLDR US

18/06/2021

15.78

The deal spread and an improved bid opportunity favor a position long CLDR.

Altium

ALU AU

18/06/2021

34.71

Autodesk’s proposal shows their intention to expand their manufacturing software segment, which is highly competitive. Altium perfectly fits in Autodesk’s portfolio.
The key risk of the transaction is the board and shareholder support from Altium’s side. Based on the current announcements, they are open to sell the company, in case Autodesk offers an acceptable price. In our view Altium has to increase the offer, if they would like to proceed with the deal.

Magnachip Semiconductor

MX US

17/06/2021

24.07

We believe that the CFIUS interim order and a possible block might offer Korea the chance to avoid having to make a decision on this delicate deal.

UDG Healthcare

UDG LN

15/06/2021

1044

Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas June 15, 2021

Deutsche Wohnen

DWNI GY

15/06/2021

51.8

Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas June 15, 2021

Great Canadian Gaming

GC CN

11/06/2021

44.65

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 11, 2021

Spire Healthcare

SPI LN

09/06/2021

2.45

Based on deal valuation and Mediclinic’s support (as long as there is no counter bid more than 10% higher than the current one) we believe that the deal will go through as it is.

Welbilt Update

WBT US

09/06/2021

24.34

We would not take a position as WBT is already trading above Ali’s proposal and a counterbid from MIDD might be limited to around $24-$26.

Grandvision

GVNV NA

04/06/2021

27.25

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 4, 2021

Inter Pipeline

IPL CN

04/06/2021

20.27

Brookfield’s proposal appears to be superior at this moment as it is worth more, has a significant cash component and could close imminently. We don’t expect that this is Pembina’s best offer. They probably expected Brookfield to improve their bid, so we see at least one more improvement from Pembina.

UDG Healthcare

UDG LN

03/06/2021

1058

We believe that the strong deal rationale favors an improved offer, thus we would recommend a position long UDG.

Recticel

REC BB

02/06/2021

14.66

We believe Greiner needs to improve its bid to reach the 50%+1 threshold. Antitrust concerns might arise around the combined market share in the EU. Therefore, a lengthy regulatory review might not be ruled out.

Alexion

ALXN US

28/05/2021

176.55

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 28, 2021

Deutsche Wohnen

DWNI GY

28/05/2021

52.24

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 28, 2021

IHS Markit

INFO US

28/05/2021

105.31

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 28, 2021

Deutsche Wohnen

DWNI GY

28/05/2021

52.26

The deal spread appears to be favorable to take a position long DWNI.

Crown Resorts

CWN AU

28/05/2021

12.94

We would not take a position in CWN at this time due to its valuation and the ongoing regulatory processes.

Core-Mark

CORE US

26/05/2021

45.11

We don’t see nationwide issues and the divestiture cap is sizeable enough to tackle local issues if they arise.

Monmouth Real Estate

MNR US

25/05/2021

19

We believe shareholders will approve the deal if no superior offer emerges. Blackwells failed to make an improved offer in recent months and the board explored strategic alternatives, which appears to limit upside potential.

Welbilt

WBT US

25/05/2021

19.59

We would not take a position at this time given the long deal timeline and the risk of a counter bid for either party before the shareholder votes.

Klovern

KLOVB SS

21/05/2021

16.37

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 1, 2021

Enable Midstream Partners

ENBL US

19/05/2021

8.54

We don’t expect significant divestitures to be required by regulators. We expect the deal to close in 4Q2021.

PRA Health

PRAH US

17/05/2021

171.9

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas May 17, 2021

Meggitt

MGGT LN

14/05/2021

480.4

We would not take a position as there has not been any official announcement about the approach. However, if the deal materializes, we believe regulatory risk is manageable.

KPN NV

KPN NA

13/05/2021

2.781

It appears that price is not the only concern and given the lack of willingness to sell both from KPN board/management and the Dutch government the probability of a firm deal is low. We would not recommend a position long KPN above its fair value.

IHH Healthcare

IHH MK

13/05/2021

5.45

N/A

At Home Group

HOME US

11/05/2021

36.3

We would not go long HOME as we see little upside based on our LBO calculations.

Tilt Renewables

TLT NZ

07/05/2021

8

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 7, 2021

Equiniti Group

EQN LN

06/05/2021

1.74

We believe there is a good chance for a firm deal. Based on our LBO model we see upside to the deal price.

Intouch Holdings

INTUCH TB

04/05/2021

63.75

We would not take a position at this point as we see limited upside potential

Cerved

CERV IM

04/05/2021

9.7

We recommend a position long CERV close to the ION offer price as cheap option for a bump to the offer.

Willis Towers Watson

WLTW US

30/04/2021

258.86

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 30, 2021

Bingo

BIN AU

30/04/2021

3.41

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 30, 2021

Proofpoint

PPFT US

30/04/2021

172.12

We assign low probability to a counter bid in the go-shop period given the deal’s valuation and PFPT’s size.

PPD

PPD US

28/04/2021

46.29

We believe an extended antitrust review is unlikely, the indicated fourth quarter deal close seems realistic

Kansas City Southern

KSU US

27/04/2021

300

We recommend a position long KSU below 307

Galaxy Resources

GXY AU

26/04/2021

3.86

A counter bid can’t be ruled out as demand for lithium is expected to increase and based on EV to Measured and Indicated Resources (Mt, LCE), the merged entity appears to be undervalued compared to listed peers. We see limited downside on a position long deal spread in case no counter bid materializes.

Knoll

KNL US

23/04/2021

23.76

We believe that limited deal risk favors a position long on the deal spread.

Gamesys Group

GYS LN

20/04/2021

19.27

We believe shareholders will support the transaction in the absence of counterbid. However, we believe there is room for a superior offer.

Toshiba

6502 JP

19/04/2021

4400

The high percentage of activist shareholders, rumored interest from several parties (including funds backed by the Japanese government) make a position long Toshiba at these levels attractive in our view. Incoming offers and shareholder pressure might make management explore alternatives.

Nuance Communications

NUAN US

19/04/2021

52.24

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus one may consider a position long NUAN.

GW Pharma

GWPH US

15/04/2021

218.81

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas April 15, 2021

Orange Belgium

OBEL BB

15/04/2021

22.05

Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas April 15, 2021

Suez

SEV FP

14/04/2021

19.9

The deal spread does not appear to be attractive due to a potentially lengthy regulatory review in certain jurisdictions.

Euskaltel

EKT SM

13/04/2021

11.1

We don’t expect an increased offer or a counter bid.

Willis Towers Watson

WLTW US

12/04/2021

240.0

Although the deal faces several headwinds, downside in a deal break appears to be limited around 225/WLTW.

Magnachip Semiconductor

MX US

08/04/2021

26.4

The key risk appears to be Korea as OLED technology is designated as national core technology. It appears that MX has limited exposure to the US (sales, activities, IP), therefore a CFIUS block appears to be unlikely.

Cardtronics

CATM US

01/04/2021

38.9

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 1, 2021

Klövern

KLOVB SS

01/04/2021

15.4

The deal spread offers a favorable entry point with an option on an improved offer.

The Hartford

HIG US

31/03/2021

67.2

We anticipate significant upside, given that several potential bidders are rumored to be interested on the heels of Chubb’s $65 per share offer. Based on Chubb’s recent comments, they seem to be committed to raise the bid. In addition, Hartford seems to be a desirable target for players looking to strengthen their presence in the P&C space. HIG currently trades in-line with peers. With limited downside risk, we recommend going long HIG.

Fly Leasing

FLY US

30/03/2021

16.9

The spread is tight due to limited deal risks. It appears that the company has reviewed its options before agreeing to the deal with Carlyle, therefore a counter bid seems to be a long shot. Shareholder push for a higher price appears to be unlikely in our view

Tilt Renewables

TLT NZ

26/03/2021

7.6

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 26, 2021

Maxim

MXIM US

26/03/2021

93.1

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 26, 2021

Kansas City Southern

KSU US

26/03/2021

254.0

At current stage the market assumes the approval of the voting trust by STB and no issues with CFIUS, Mexico. We would assume a 1%-2% deal spread post voting trust approval. In the unlikely case of the STB not approving the voting trust, the deal would collapse with substantial downside (parties might agree to amend the DMA to wait for STB approval in that case). Therefore, we would consider a position short on the deal spread going into the trust approval expected in April/May.

S Immo

SPI AV

24/03/2021

19.7

The offer will most likely be low for SPI shareholders and a mandatory offer is unlikely in our view. With improving SPI standalone prospects, on a riskreward basis, we would go long SPI.

Tilt Renewables

TLT NZ

22/03/2021

7.6

We believe that the deal spread is attractive assuming a 5-month deal timeline. Regulatory approvals should be granted as New Zealand assets will be acquired by a New Zealand and Australian assets will go to Australian buyers.

Perspecta

PRSP US

19/03/2021

29.1

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 19, 2021

Shaw Communications

SJR/B CN

19/03/2021

34.6

The deal has significant regulatory risk, however we believe that there are a number of factors that increase the likelihood of approval.

Extended Stay

STAY US

19/03/2021

19.3

The deal spread of 0.9% appears to be somewhat tight but a cheap option on a price increase. Given that downside and deal risk is limited we would go long STAY on a potential price increase

Orange Belgium

OBEL BB

17/03/2021

22.9

Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas March 17, 2021

RSA Insurance Group

RSA LN

17/03/2021

680.6

Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas March 17, 2021

Seacor Holdings

CKH US

12/03/2021

41.3

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 12, 2021

Bingo

BIN AU

12/03/2021

3.3

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 12, 2021

Norwegian Finans Holding

NOFI NO

12/03/2021

101.3

In our view the likelihood of Nordax improving the offer is high. Improved offer will be driven by potential synergies. However, we don’t expect a significant increase.

Inter Pipeline

IPL CN

12/03/2021

18.3

We believe Brookfield needs to improve its offer to secure the 66 2⁄3 shareholder support.

Luminex

LMNX US

11/03/2021

30.5

We believe that the probability of a firm deal announcement is relatively high. That makes us recommend long LMNX on a favorable risk/reward (substantial upside and limited downside).

Athene

ATH US

09/03/2021

51.3

The deal spread does not appear to be attractive given the long deal timeline.

PRA Health

PRAH US

05/03/2021

146.4

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021

Perspecta

PRSP US

05/03/2021

28.8

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021

Forterra

FRTA US

05/03/2021

23.6

Overall, we believe the deal will be approved by regulators with divestitures

Tribune Publishing

TPCO US

05/03/2021

17.0

The deal spread appears to be unattractive on a risk reward basis. The deal could break, should major shareholder oppose it, and the downside risk is notable. Alternatively, the events can culminate into a bidding war between the two key shareholders.

PRA Health

PRAH US

04/03/2021

144.8

The deal spread of 4.9% appears to be too wide therefore we recommend a position long PRAH and short ICLR.

Glu Mobile

GLUU US

26/02/2021

12.5

The low risk profile of the transaction is reflected in the lack of deal spread. We would hold our position as we believe there is room for potential counter bids and the downside risk is moderate.

Coherent Inc.

COHR US

25/02/2021

247.6

As COHR is trading only slightly above the competing offers we believe that risk/reward favors a COHR long. In our view the most likely winner seems to be MKSI, thus we would hedge our position with MKSI short in a 2 to 1 ratio (COHR/MKSI).

Orange Belgium

OBEL BB

24/02/2021

23.3

Near-term changes / opportunities on the Belgian market and the favorable current valuation of OBEL might make Orange want to push through the deal now. The value upside from the tower portfolio increases the room for Orange to raise its offer.

Asaleo Care

AHY AU

23/02/2021

1.4

We believe shareholders are going to support the improved bid given the fair takeout premium.

Cardtronics

CATM US

19/02/2021

38.7

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021

GW Pharma

GWPH US

19/02/2021

213.8

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021

RSA Insurance Group

RSA LN

19/02/2021

676.2

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021

Kiadis

KDS NA

19/02/2021

5.4

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021

Coca-Cola Amatil

CCL AU

19/02/2021

13.4

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021

China Traditional Chinese Medicine

570 HK

17/02/2021

4.5

A firm deal in our view has higher likelihood than what is implied by the current market price.

GW Pharma

GWPH US

16/02/2021

213.9

The deal spread appears to be attractive. We expect the deal to receive regulatory approval and close in May 2021.

Dialog Semiconductor Plc

DLG GY

16/02/2021

65.2

The deal spread of 3% appears to be somewhat tight given the long timeline. We believe that counterbid or improved bid optionality is limited and does not justify such tight spread.

Cardtronics

CATM US

16/02/2021

38.8

Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 16, 2021

Grandvision

GVNV NA

16/02/2021

26.1

Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas February 16, 2021

RSA Insurance Group

RSA LN

16/02/2021

676.0

Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas February 16, 2021

Sogou

SOGO US

16/02/2021

8.3

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 16, 2021

Varian Medical

VAR US

16/02/2021

176.2

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 16, 2021

Kiadis Pharma

KDS NA

16/02/2021

5.4

Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas February 16, 2021

Aggreko PLC

AGK LN

12/02/2021

851.0

The offer price appears to be at the lower end of fair takeout value estimate.

Sportsman's Warehouse

SPWH US

11/02/2021

17.6

We would not take a position at this moment as the regulatory review will take several months. Ultimately the deal is likely to be approved without any divestitures.

Marston's

MARS LN

08/02/2021

99.4

Despite the U.K. pub sector is hammered by the pandemic, we suppose opportunistic takeovers are over. On a risk-reward basis, we would go long MARS below 95p as we expect a final offer between 130p to 140p.

Sogou

SOGO US

05/02/2021

8.3

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 5, 2021

Varian Medical

VAR US

05/02/2021

176.4

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 5, 2021

Cardtronics

CATM US

05/02/2021

38.8

The deal spread appears to be too tight, therefore we recommend a position short CATM.

Sogou

SOGO US

05/02/2021

8.3

We believe that the deal will be approved in China given Tencent already had a majority stake before the deal and the companies were in close collaboration. However, the recent earnings release and Cayman court ruling makes us cautious.

Perspecta

PRSP US

03/02/2021

29.1

We don’t find the current spread attractive.

Scapa Group

SCPA LN

02/02/2021

218.5

We believe shareholders are going to accept the offer in case no counterbid emerges, given the fair all-cash offer and the strategic rationale.

DXC

DXC US

29/01/2021

29.2

We believe the implied offer is on the lower end, despite DXC’s poor standalone prospects. The transactions strategic rationale lacks consensus amongst analysts, despite the unquestionable synergy potential. In addition, both DXC and ATO votes can hold unpleasant surprises. The offer consideration mix has to be fine-tuned to satisfy both sides, in our view.

Coherent Inc.

COHR US

26/01/2021

204.7

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however we would wait to enter a position long given the long timeline.

MCUBSMidcity Investment Corp

3227 JT

22/01/2021

95800.0

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 26, 2021

Bingo

BIN AU

22/01/2021

3.3

We don’t see significant hurdles for a firm deal to be agreed as the offer appears to be attractive based on peer / precedent valuation and given the founding family has the option to roll over its stake and has the potential for higher consideration over time via the scrip alternative. Target board might be able to squeeze out some more from the bidders given the significant rebound potential in the business

Cantel Medical

CMD US

21/01/2021

80.4

With limited downside risk, we believe the deal offers a relatively cheap bet on a potential increased offer or counter bid, if the regulatory hurdle is cleared.

Change Healthcare

CHNG US

20/01/2021

24.0

We expect an extended antitrust review and believe that the deal will ultimately be approved by regulators.

CA Immo

CAI AV

18/01/2021

35.3

We believe the offer price does not represent a compelling value.

Kiadis

KDS NA

15/01/2021

5.3

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 15, 2021

Coca-Cola Amatil

CCL AU

15/01/2021

13.0

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 15, 2021

Intratil

IFT NZ

15/01/2021

7.2

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 15, 2021

ODP

ODP US

15/01/2021

45.6

ODP’s historical valuation metrics, the synergy potential, and precedent transaction multiples also justify a higher offer price

Xilinx

XLNX US

12/01/2021

147.2

Update on DCSA approval - manageable risk

FLIR Systems

FLIR US

11/01/2021

52.9

We believe that there is a high probability of an extended antitrust review. Therefore, the mid-2021 timeline estimate of the companies might be a bit optimistic in our view.

Great Canadian Gaming

GC CN

11/01/2021

43.4

We don’t see a strong motivation for Apollo to walk away, in addition we note that their options are limited.

Great Canadian Gaming

GC CN

08/01/2021

43.4

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021

Willis Towers Watson

WLTW US

08/01/2021

203.6

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021

National General

NGHC US

08/01/2021

34.2

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021

Virtusa

VRTU US

08/01/2021

51.2

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021

Entra

ENTRA NO

08/01/2021

194.0

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021

KAZ Minerals

KAZ LN

08/01/2021

706.6

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021

Entain

ENT LN

07/01/2021

1468.0

We believe there are strong merits for the deal and MGM has ample of room to improve current terms. We see an acceptable offer at least around 1600p which makes us recommend ENT long on a favorable risk reward

Signature Aviation

SIG LN

07/01/2021

411.6

Given that SIG is trading above the proposed terms we don’t recommend taking a position, as we don’t see significant upside to the proposed price

Magellan Health

MGLN US

06/01/2021

93.6

We expect the deal timeline to be driven by state approvals and the deal to close in 3Q2021.

Aphria

APHA CN

23/12/2020

9.2

We see limited deal risk or any chance of an extended deal review. However, the deal spread of 0.4% is too tight to recommend a position.

Pluralsight

PS US

23/12/2020

20.5

A superior offer appears unlikely, however it is a cheap trade to bet on one.

Aerojet Rocketdyne

AJRD US

22/12/2020

52.8

We expect the deal to close in October/November 2021. We see path to approval based on the framework set by the Orbital/Northrop precedent, however heavy opposition can be expected from AJRD customers Boeing and Raytheon

TORC Oil & Gas

TOG CN

17/12/2020

2.7

Consolidation in the Canadian oil & gas industry is at full steam ahead. With operating efficiencies and focus on deleveraging, deal premiums continue to be minimal. We see limited risks to the TOG/WCP combination and expect the timeline to be driven by the timing of the shareholder votes.

Alexion

ALXN US

17/12/2020

157.8

The deal spread (assuming one more dvd for AZN) appears to be somewhat tight given the shareholder vote risk and the lengthy deal timeline

Infratil

IFT NZ

16/12/2020

7.0

Based on our SOTP, we believe that the valuation of the offer is not compelling.

Slack Technologies

WORK US

15/12/2020

 

Added to best ideas list in  Americas Best Ideas December 15, 2020

Sogou

SOGO US

14/12/2020

8.13

We believe that the deal will be approved in China given Tencent already had a majority stake before the deal and the companies were in close collaboration.

Seacor Holdings

CKH US

11/12/2020

41.79

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 11, 2020

Omnicell

OMCL US

11/12/2020

116.76

We believe that a firm deal has higher probability compared to what is implied by its market price.

Seacor Holdings

CKH US

11/12/2020

42.02

Seacor is trading above terms. We believe that downside is limited in a deal break and shareholders are somewhat reluctant to tender into the current AIP offer. We see an acceptable offer price in the $46-$52 price range; thus we recommend a position long CKH.

Waddell & Reed Financial

WDR US

10/12/2020

25.54

We see limited risks to the deal. The deal spread is driven by dividend expectations and timeline. We expect the deal to close in May 2021.

Siltronic

WAF GY

08/12/2020

124.95

We believe that there is a high probability of a firm deal however, post-announcement, we expect a deal spread in the 5%-10% range given the antitrust-related risk

Entra

ENTRA NO

04/12/2020

179.6

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 4, 2020

AA Plc

AA LN

03/12/2020

0.33

The deal spread reflects the risk associated with the shareholder vote. Considering the uncertainties and the sizable downside risk, we do not recommend going long deal spread.

IHS Markit

INFO US

03/12/2020

99.67

We don’t find the current deal spread attractive.

Credito Valtellinese

CVAL IM

02/12/2020

11.17

Given the limited upside, a long position does not look appealing on a risk-reward basis.

Entra

ENTRA NO

01/12/2020

176.2

We believe there is further upside up to the NOK190-NOK210 range thus we recommend a position long ENTRA

Slack Technologies

WORK US

26/11/2020

40.7

We believe that the possible deal has strong strategic rationale and it is very likely to get done. We see upside to around $45/WORK share.

Great Canadian Gaming

GC CN

24/11/2020

37.63

The announcement received resistance from key Great Canadian shareholders. We agree with shareholders on valuation and we find it difficult to justify the GC board recommendation. We expect the takeover attempt to fizzle out eventually as the gap between shareholders’ demands and the C$39.0 offer appear to be too big to overcome.

CAR

699 HK

24/11/2020

3.67

We believe that the key risk is around debt refinancing. The offer price appears to be attractive.

RSA Insurance Group

RSA LN

24/11/2020

675.8

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight.

MCUBSMidcity Investment Corp

3227 JP

20/11/2020

80600

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 20, 2020

HD Supply

HDS US

20/11/2020

55.8

We expect no extended antitrust review or counter bid.

Willis Towers Watson

WLTW US

17/11/2020

210.61

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide and the risk reward (given the limited downside) favors taking a long position on the deal spread

Navistar

NAV US

17/11/2020

43.99

The deal spread appears to be attractive given limited risks to the deal and potential upside to timeline.

Codemasters

CDM LN

16/11/2020

477.5

We see upside to the current valuation as a result of a bump or counter bid with limited downside.

Taubman Centers

TCO US

16/11/2020

42.8

Removed from best ideas list in  Americas Best Ideas November 16, 2020

NetEnt

NETB SS

13/11/2020

84.5

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 13, 2020

MCUBSMidcity Investment Corp

3227 JP

13/11/2020

78300

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 13, 2020

AMP

AMP AU

11/11/2020

1.67

We believe the implied offer price represents a fair premium.

Husky Energy

HSE CN

10/11/2020

4.51

The lack of deal spread can be explained with limited downside risk, in our view.

KAZ Minerals

KAZ LN

06/11/2020

628

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 6, 2020

Tiffany

TIF US

06/11/2020

131.15

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 6, 2020

Concho

CXO US

06/11/2020

42.39

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 6, 2020

Kiadis Pharma

KDS NA

06/11/2020

5.13

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Antitrust risk appears to be limited and no significant product updates expected before deal-close.

KAZ Minerals

KAZ LN

04/11/2020

6.23

The deal spread appears to be attractive based on limited risks to the deal.

Xilinx

XLNX US

03/11/2020

118.48

The lengthy deal timeline and the bidder shareholder vote risk makes us reluctant to recommend a position long deal spread at current stage.

Concho Resources

CXO US

30/10/2020

41.51

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 30, 2020

Bilfinger

GBF GY

29/10/2020

15.97

We see huge upside in a takeover situation, however in the current market environment a firm deal is somewhat unlikely

Coca-Cola Amatil

CCL AU

29/10/2020

12.43

The deal spread is tight. The key risk appears to be the shareholder approval.

McCarthy & Stone Plc

MCS LN

27/10/2020

115.40

We assign low probability to counter bid or an increased offer.

AMAG Pharmaceuticals

AMAG US

23/10/2020

13.67

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 23, 2020

Play Communications

PLY PW

23/10/2020

38.74

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 23, 2020

Concho Resources

CXO US

22/10/2020

44.28

The dividend differential makes the spread attractive. We expect the deal to
close in February 2021.

BioSpecifics Technologies

BSTC US

22/10/2020

88.30

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight. As we don’t see a counterbidder coming in for BSTC and Endo is likely to succeed at current terms an improved offer appears to be a wild card scenario

Link

LNK AU

22/10/2020

4.94

We believe that there is a good chance for a firm deal given the premium, support from the largest shareholder and the bidder’s history with LNK

Parsley Energy

PE US

21/10/2020

10.38

The number of potential counter bidders for Permian shale assets is limited and buyers are not willing to offer premiums. PXD’s size and valuation poses a high hurdle to a bid on the bidder side. Therefore, a counter bid for either party is unlikely in our view.

DouYu

DOYU US

20/10/2020

15.76

The ~3% deal spread appears to be unattractive, considering the uncertainties associated with the regulatory process.

Xilinx

XLNX US

19/10/2020

118.23

Limited room for further XLNX price increase and the uncertainty around a firm deal announcement makes us reluctant to recommend a position long XLNX.

Grubhub

GRUB US

15/10/2020

83.59

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas October 15, 2020

Saracen Mineral Holdings

SAR AU

14/10/2020

6.11

The deal spread is tight. We see limited risk with the shareholder approval and the bidder’s creditor consent.

MyoKardia

MYOK US

13/10/2020

221.64

We recommend going long deal spread as we don’t anticipate significant risks to the deal.

Eaton Vance Health

EV US

12/10/2020

60.31

We expect the deal to close in April 2021. The key risk is the >80% client consent condition. The deal spread does not appear to be attractive at this
point.

AMAG Pharmaceuticals

AMAG US

09/10/2020

13.33

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 9, 2020

Virtusa

VRTU US

09/10/2020

50.32

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 9, 2020

AMAG Pharmaceuticals

AMAG US

07/10/2020

13.08

The deal spread appears to be wide given MAE carve-outs include product related events. Thus, we recommend a position long AMAG.

Konecranes Oyj

KCR FH

07/10/2020

28.50

The deal spread appears to be too tight. We expect a lengthy regulatory review which might result in divestitures. We also note the 15% dissent condition, that might become important in case of diverging performance of the merging parties.

William Hill

WMH LN

06/10/2020

279.80

WMH is trading above terms on an improved offer by CZR or a counterbid optionality. At current terms we assign high probability of the deal being blocked by shareholders unless CZR improves the current offer. We don’t see a counterbid as a relevant option.

WPX Energy

WPX US

06/10/2020

5.24

The deal spread looks unattractive as we don’t see substantial upside as a
result of limited counterbid potential.

Sogou

SOGO US

02/10/2020

8.89

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 1, 2020

Fitbit

FIT US

02/10/2020

6.92

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 1, 2020

Ahlstrom-Munksjo

AM1 FH

01/10/2020

17.80

The deal multiple is somewhat lower than precedents. The bidder might have to increase its offer to reach 90% in case of strong shareholder opposition.

Virtusa

VRTU US

30/09/2020

48.55

The deal spread appears to be attractive but the ongoing proxy contest between New Mountain and Virtusa’s Board brings uncertainty into the picture.

Cubic

CUB US

29/09/2020

60.4

We believe that the upside/downside and the likelihood of a firm deal offers a favorable entry point around $60.

Play Communications

PLY PW

25/09/2020

38.58

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 25, 2020

Varian Medical

VAR US

25/09/2020

171.99

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 25, 2020

National General

NGHC US

25/09/2020

33.875

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 25, 2020

Craft Brew Alliance

BREW US

25/09/2020

16.47

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 25, 2020

Play Communications

PLY PW

24/09/2020

38.58

The deal spread is tight, however one might speculate on a counter-bid given the relatively low valuation and limited deal risk.

COL Pcl

COL TB

24/09/2020

18.6

COL shareholder vote appears to be the key hurdle to the deal. Support from almost 50% of shares indicates that the shareholder vote is likely to succeed.

G4S

GFS LN

22/09/2020

186.15

We see substantial upside in a friendly situation however the downside risk does not offer a favorable risk reward.

MCUBS  MIDCITY  INVESTMENT  CORP

3227 JP

18/09/2020

77300

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 18, 2020

OptiComm

OPC AU

18/09/2020

6.03

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 18, 2020

Highland Gold

HGM LN

18/09/2020

298.6

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 18, 2020

Citadel Group

CGL AU

18/09/2020

5.57

N/A

Altice

ATC NA

18/09/2020

4.14

The relatively low implied valuation is opportunistic, in our view. We see limited probability for an improved offer. The offer price represents a floor for ATC

OptiComm

OPC AU

17/09/2020

6.03

Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas September 17, 2020

MCUBS  MIDCITY  INVESTMENT  CORP

3227  JP

17/09/2020

78000

Added to best ideas list in Best Ideas September 17, 2020

Immunomedics Health

IMMU US

17/09/2020

85.36

We  expect  no significant  issues  with  regulatory  approvals.Product  related events are carved out of MAE.

MCUBSMidcity Investment Corp

3227 JP

14/09/2020

74900

The deal spread appears to be attractive due to the dividend differential.

Bankia

BKIA SM

14/09/2020

1.39

We  see  room  for  CABK  to  meet  BKIA  owners'demand  of  30%  premium  however,the lengthy deal timeline and the political sensitivity of the deal might limit the upside on a firm deal announcement.

Jinmao Hotel

6139 HK

11/09/2020

4.77

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 11, 2020

HiQ

HIQ SS

11/09/2020

70

The valuation is on the upper endof precedents’range, in our view. As a result we don’t expect a counterbid.

Grubhub

GRUB US

09/09/2020

69.69

The Takeaway.com shareholder vote is the keyremaining risk. We believe that TKWY  shareholders  will  support  the  deal  due  to  its strategic  nature  and  key shareholder agreements.

Tiffany

TIF US

09/09/2020

114.69

The key questions in our  view are, whether the outside date extension could be challenged and whether the French Ministry letter qualifies as a legal prohibition as per the DMA or not. Based on the availableinformation we believe that TIF hastheupper handina court case

Kansas City Southern

KSU US

08/09/2020

188

We would not take a position at this point as room for the bidders to increase the offer priceappears to be limitedandthe target might seemore valuein a standalone scenario.

Fitbit

FIT US

04/09/2020

6.33

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 4, 2020

Grubhub

GRUB US

04/09/2020

68.82

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 4, 2020

Wright Medical

WMGI US

04/09/2020

30.45

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 4, 2020

 

 

 

 

 

Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest).  As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level.

 

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