Chain Bridge Research | Coverage List

Coverage List

Stock	Ticker	Date Published	Market Price on Publication Date	Recommendation
Gresham House	GHE LN	21/08/2023	1057.5	The deal spread appears to be driven by the potential downside and the large number of regulatory approvals required.
Capri Holdings	CPRI US	18/08/2023	51.94	We believe there is a high likelihood of an extended antitrust review. However, one might speculate on a swift HSR approval as the deal spread appears to be wide
ESI Group	ESI FP	15/08/2023	148	Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 15, 2023
Triton International	TRTN US	15/08/2023	83.15	Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas August 15, 2023
Kahoot	KAHOT NO	15/08/2023	34.17	While the one-day premium appears to be low, we expect the acceptance condition / delisting threshold to be met given the premium over the unaffected share price.
Sovos Brands	SOVO US	14/08/2023	22.55	The deal spread appears to be tight, given the likelihood of a second request.
Dice Therapeutics	DICE US	11/08/2023	47.55	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 11, 2023
Pacific Current	PAC AU	11/08/2023	10.77	We believe that the upside will driven by GQG’s proposal as it will have to post an appealing offer for the current co-operating bidders who can block the deal.
New Relic	NEWR US	10/08/2023	83.89	We see no major antitrust risk, but an extended review cannot be ruled out.
Amedisys	AMED US	04/08/2023	91.86	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 4, 2023
Chinook Therapeutics	KDNY US	04/08/2023	40.28	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 4, 2023
Reata Pharmaceuticals	RETA US	04/08/2023	167.16	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide despite the substantial downside.
Dechra Pharmaceuticals	DPH LN	03/08/2023	3748	We don’t expect extended regulatory reviews and expect the deal to close late this year
Heritage-Crystal Clean	HCCI US	02/08/2023	46.38	While HCCI is currently trading through the bid price, we attach low probability
Costa Group Holdings	CGC AU	28/07/2023	3.31	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 28, 2023
Chinook Therapeutics	KDNY US	28/07/2023	39.08	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 28, 2023
Denbury	DEN US	25/07/2023	86.53	We believe the current deal spread is too tight considering the risks around the transaction.
TransAlta Renewables	RNW CN	24/07/2023	13.42	The key question in our view is whether RNW shareholders will feel compensated by the deal premium for the significant dividend dilution of their shares.
Ordina	ORDI NA	21/07/2023	5.71	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 21, 2023
Opdenergy Holdings	OPDE SM	21/07/2023	5.73	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 21, 2023
JSR	4185 JP	14/07/2023	4080	The deal spread appears to be explained by fears of a hostile Chinese view of the offer.
Quotient Technology	QOUT US	13/07/2023	3.85	While the companies are competitors, regulatory risk is moderate in our view. Based on that, we would go long QUOT into the expiry of the HSR waiting period.
Costa Group Holdings	CGC AU	12/07/2023	3.28	We see high likelihood of a firm deal as the board indicated its willingness to recommend a transaction at the offered price and the bidder is familiar with CGC as it owned of the company before its 2015 IPO.
United Malt Group	UMG AU	10/07/2023	4.79	The deal spread appears to be driven by current fears of regulatory issues.
American Equity Investment	AEL US	06/07/2023	52.7	The key risk is the timing of the insurance regulatory approvals. Given the long timeline, the current deal spread is unattractive.
Amedisys	AMED US	05/07/2023	91.35	We see some upside to the lengthy deal timeline if asset divestitures do not require upfront buyers and given the FTC know-how based on recent precedents.
ESI Group	ESI FP	04/07/2023	148	The mandatory offer is expected to commence in 4Q2023.
Syneos Health	SYNH US	30/06/2023	42.14	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023
Iveric Bio	ISEE US	30/06/2023	39.34	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023
Dice Therapeutics	DICE US	30/06/2023	46.46	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023
Covestro	1COV GR	30/06/2023	47.47	While ADNOC might not return with an improved bid, Covestro could attract takeover interest from other parties.
Uponor	UPONOR FH	29/06/2023	28.62	While we don’t expect major regulatory issues, the deal spread appears to be too tight.
Dice Therapeutics	DICE US	28/06/2023	46.7	The short timeline and the limited deal risk make us believe that the deal spread is wide.
NexTier Oilfield Solutions	NEX US	26/06/2023	8.4	Overall, we believe regulators will sign-off the deal, but a second request cannot be ruled out.
SoftwareONE	SWON SW	21/06/2023	17.69	Based on industry peer multiples and our LBO model we believe that there would be room for an entry of a counter bidder at a higher offer price if Bain fails to make an increased bid.
Stratasys	SSYS US	20/06/2023	15.47	At the current stage, we see 90% probability to a DM/SSYS deal close and a 10% probability to a successful NNDM partial tender offer. DDD is not in the mix in our view with its current proposal
Opdenergy Holdings	OPDE SM	16/06/2023	5.67	Deal risk is limited. We believe the current deal spread is unattractive given the lengthy timeline.
Chinook Therapeutics	KDNY US	16/06/2023	37.63	We believe that there is a decent chance of a second request. Due to the mitigating factors (approved treatments, large number of competing pipeline assets) however, one might consider going long KDNY into the expiry of the HSR waiting period betting on a swifter approval.
Telenet Group	TNET BB	09/06/2023	20.64	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 9, 2023
Syneos Health	SYNH US	09/06/2023	41.66	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 9, 2023
VectivBio Holding	VECT US	07/06/2023	16.6	One might consider going long VECT into the tender offer period as deal risks seem limited. However, IRWD might also attract third party interest.
PDC Energy	PDCE US	06/06/2023	71.36	The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight given the potentially lengthy US review.
Uponor	UPONOR FH	06/06/2023	27.44	We believe that there might be a higher offer from Aliaxis or third parties for Uponor. We see upside to the high-twenties.
Dechra Pharma	DPH LN	02/06/2023	3632	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023
Heska Corp	HSKA US	02/06/2023	119.84	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023
Bellus Health	BLU CN	02/06/2023	19.65	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023
Horizon Therapeutics	HZNP US	31/05/2023	99.88	Despite the long court process, the deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus we continue to recommend a position long HZNP.
Neogames	NGMS US	30/05/2023	27.25	The deal is expected to close in 2024
Heska Corp	HSKA US	26/05/2023	115.55	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 26, 2023
Syneos Health	SYNH US	19/05/2023	41.52	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide despite the limited deal risk.
Allkem	AKE AU	19/05/2023	25.51	N/A
Magellan Midstream Partners	MMP US	19/05/2023	62.77	The deal spread is tight considering the tax implications occurring from the transaction.
Amedisys	AMED US	15/05/2023	75.95	We see a high probability of a deal break. We would be long OPCH without a hedge on the target side.
Rothschild & Co	ROTH FP	12/05/2023	47.35	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023
Canaccord Genuity	CF CN	12/05/2023	9.42	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023
Majorel	MAJ NA	12/05/2023	28.95	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023
Triton International	TRTN US	12/05/2023	82.83	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023
Iveric Bio	ISEE US	12/05/2023	37.6	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023
Arconic	ARNC US	12/05/2023	29.06	We expect regulatory approvals to be granted and that the deal timeline will be driven by the SAMR review.
Blackmores	BKL AU	12/05/2023	94.5	The deal spread appears to be tight, especially considering the special dividend payable before deal close.
Heska Corp	HSKA US	12/05/2023	117	The deal spread is tight considering the antitrust risk, in our view. One might speculate a short HSKA on an HSR second request.
Software AG	SOWG GR	08/05/2023	33	Bain appears to face an uphill battle to trump Silver Lake’s offer or team up with its rival.
Bellus Health	BLU CN	05/05/2023	19.37	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 5, 2023
Teck Resources	TECK/B CN	05/05/2023	57.99	We assign low probability to a firm deal at the current stage given Teck’s and Canada’s opposition.
Network International	NETW LN	05/05/2023	382	We assign a high probability (~70%) of a firm offer and some upside optionality (20% probability of a 450p offer) given the competitive bidding situation. Despite of the low probability (less than 10%) of a no deal situation, the significant downside makes a NETW long position unattractive.
Iveric Bio	ISEE US	04/05/2023	38.05	We don’t see serious antitrust issues, however we note that pipeline-related events are not carved out of MAE and the deal might not close before the August 19 PDUFA date.
Bellus Health	BLU CN	02/05/2023	14.51	N/A
Triton International	TRTN US	02/05/2023	82	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. We note that the BIPC share price is around the lower end of the collar, making hedging the long position costly.
Dechra Pharma	DPH LN	28/04/2023	3730	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 28, 2023
Activison Blizzard	ATVI US	28/04/2023	77.71	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 28, 2023
Majorel	MAJ NA	28/04/2023	29.25	We expect the deal to close in October 2023. The deal spread appears to be attractive as we don’t expect serious regulatory concerns.
Dechra Pharmaceuticals	DPH LN	25/04/2023	3746	We believe that there is a fairly good chance for a firm deal to be announced. A position long into the firm deal announcement appears to offer attractive risk-reward.
Prometheus Biosciences	RXDX	24/04/2023	194.46	We don’t expect antitrust issues given the limited overlap between the companies.
Telenet Group	TNET BB	21/04/2023	21.04	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023
Rothschild & Co	ROTH FP	21/04/2023	46.7	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023
Ordina	ORDI NA	21/04/2023	5.58	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023
Diversey	DSEY US	21/04/2023	8.16	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023
Canaccord Genuity	CF CN	21/04/2023	10.67	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023
Life Storage	LSI US	19/04/2023	136.4	We don’t see PSA coming back with an improved offer. The deal spread reflects the limited deal risk.
Liontown	LTR AU	14/04/2023	2.73	The valuation offered appears to be attractive compared to precedents.
Stratasys	SSYS US	11/04/2023	15.47	The deal spread appears to be wide with limited downside. However, we believe that the SSYS poison pill will successfully defend the target against NNDM’s unsolicited approach and NNDM is limited to improve its offer further.
VMWare	VMW US	06/04/2023	121.9	We would not take a position in the deal spread due to the extended reviews in several jurisdictions and the uncertainty around the Chinese process. We see little chance that all issues of major regulatory bodies (foreclosure/interoperability, innovation, bundling) could be solved by behavioural remedies, especially considering that such remedies are out of favour in the US and UK. Structural remedies might trigger MAE and the final extended outside date might be too close in case of an FTC lawsuit.
Canaccord Genuity	CF CN	06/04/2023	10.7	The bidders need to increase their bid to gain board recommendation, in our view. However, they might still reach 50%+1 with their current offer.
Healius	HLS AU	03/04/2023	3.16	The current status of the approach is highly uncertain. There are multiple obstacles that ACL has to overcome in order to complete a transaction. It further has to be noted that a potential counterbid from private equity or a foreign strategic investor would not raise similar antitrust issues.
Shaw Communications	SJR/B CN	31/03/2023	40.45	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 31, 2023
Telenet Group	TNET BB	30/03/2023	20.88	The spread to the proposed price appears to be somewhat wide however the downside is significant.
Ordina	ORDI NA	30/03/2023	5.97	Deal risk is limited. Considering the longer timeline, the deal spread appears to be too tight.
Diversey	DSEY US	27/03/2023	8.03	The deal spread appears to be attractive. However, the timeline is lengthy and multiple regulatory approvals will be required.
GK Software	GKS GR	24/03/2023	189.6	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 24, 2023
Va-Q-Tec	VST GR	23/03/2023	23.4	Considering the long timeline and the risk/reward of a positive antitrust decision, the deal spread appears to be tight. We note the substantial downside (~50%).
Seagen	SGEN US	22/03/2023	199.91	We don’t see the deal going through without structural remedies due to overlaps in several fields of oncology.
Credit Suisse	CSGN SW	22/03/2023	0.8464	CSGN is trading above terms with effectively no upside optionality for shareholders. We recommend a short on the deal spread. We note that setting up positions might be costly.
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings	AAWW US	17/03/2023	102.48	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 17, 2023
Black Knight	BKI US	17/03/2023	55.4	We see limited options for the parties to tackle all antirust issues.
InvoCare	IVC AU	16/03/2023	11.92	Based on InvoCare’s leading market share, the strength of the core business, historical valuation and precedent / peer multiples we believe that the Board might push for an increased bid.
Rothschild & Co	ROTH FP	14/03/2023	46.95	Considering the lengthy timeline, the current spread is tight. We assign low probability to a price bump.
Distell	DGH SJ	10/03/2023	17973	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings	AAWW US	10/03/2023	99.93	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023
GK Software	GKS GR	10/03/2023	186	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023
Uni-Select	UNS CN	10/03/2023	46.77	The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight, given the lengthy deal review.
GK Software	GKS GR	09/03/2023	186.8	We don’t expect extended antitrust or FDI review and see deal close in June 2023.
Tegna	TGNA US	03/03/2023	17.04	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 3, 2023
TravelCenters of America	TA US	03/03/2023	84.57	We believe that an extended review is unlikely and the mid-2023 /3Q deal close guidance is realistic.
Newcrest Mining	NCM AU	01/03/2023	23.38	NCM is currently trading below the rejected offer. We would expect at least one improved offer from Newmont.
1Life Healthcare	ONEM US	24/02/2023	16.47	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 27, 2023
Cardiovascular Systems	CSII US	24/02/2023	19.71	We see a limited probability of an HSR second request. However, nowadays healthcare faces higher regulatory attention in the US. Hence, we would conclude that the current deal spread is tight.
Kape Technologies	KAPE LN	22/02/2023	293	While we don’t expect the Board to support the offer at the current valuation an increased offer appears to be unlikely. Unikmind would be close to the 70% minimum acceptance threshold with the support of ExpressVPN founders, and with their support they most likely have the majority required at the EGM (75% of votes cast) to delist KAPE. Unikmind might even succeed with its current shareholding of 54.8%.
Oak Street Health	OSH US	17/02/2023	35.38	Given the lengthy deal review and other pending deals, the spread appears to be fair. The spread will be driven by the outcome of pending deals in the industry.
Magnet Forensics	MAGT CN	17/02/2023	44.25	MAGT is currently trading at the bid price. One could speculate on a bump, as Thoma Bravo might need to lift its bid in case target shareholder opposition further mounts
NuVasive	NUVA US	15/02/2023	44.4	We would not rule out a second request and a longer than expected deal timeline.
Meltwater	MWTR NO	08/02/2023	17.81	We expect the offer to close in May 2023.
Evoqua Water Technologies	AQUA US	08/02/2023	50.25	The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight given the possible delay in case of an HSR second request.
IAA Inc	IAA US	02/02/2023	42.41	The key risk is the bidder shareholder vote. While we see a higher chance that the deal will receive the requisite shareholder approvals than not, independent proxy advisors’ view might be crucial.
Atlas Corp	ATCO US	02/02/2023	14.82	Based on the deal premium, our standalone value estimate, peer and precedent multiples, industry headwinds and the fact that no other shareholders joined opposing holders we believe that it is more likely that the deal will be approved at the AGM.
Horizon Therapeutics	HZNP US	27/01/2023	110.63	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest Januar 27, 2023
Rovio	ROVIO FH	26/01/2023	7.16	Any deal would require the support of the controlling shareholder. There are no ongoing talks and the Rovio announcement sounds rather dismissive.
Horizon Therapeutics	HZNP US	26/01/2023	112.13	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus we recommend a position long HZNP. We note the substantial downside.
ForgeRock	FORG US	24/01/2023	19.99	Overall, we believe regulators are more likely to approve the merger than not. Microsoft’s unquestionable market presence might cool down antitrust concerns.
Caverion	CAV1V FH	20/01/2023	7.97	We believe that Bain has to increase its offer to retain support of the Caverion Board.
National Instruments	NATI US	20/01/2023	53.87	Due to NATI’s strong takeover defenses, EMR can’t force a deal without Board consent. NATI might drag the strategic review and based on the CEO’s bullish comments, they might elect to remain a standalone company. We see limited upside to the current offer based on our ROIC and LBO calculations.
Tegna	TGNA US	18/01/2023	20.01	Added to best ideas list in Best Ideas Januar 18, 2023
Duck Creek Technologies	DCT US	13/01/2023	19	Given the valuation and the limited number of potential counterbidders, we see low probability for a counterbid. However, the short timeline and the limited deal risk might offer a favourable entry point for an improved offer.
CinCor Pharma	CINC US	13/01/2023	29.01	We believe the CVR could worth ~$2-2.3 per share. Based on that the current spread is unattractive.
Euronav	EURN BB	13/01/2023	13.44	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 13, 2023
Albireo	ALBO US	11/01/2023	43.85	The CVR does not appear to be cheap at $1.85 considering the potentially long timeline until payout.
Sierra Wireless	SW CN	02/01/2023	41.62	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 06, 2023
Nitro Software	NTO AU	06/01/2023	2.21	Nitro is trading slightly above the A$2.15 per share recommended bid. While we believe Potentia needs to raise its offer to win, it might not be able to outbid KKR’s Alludo.
Aerojet Rocketdyne	AJRD US	22/12/2022	55.6	We see much less incentive for LHX to foreclose any of AJRD’s customers, misuse missile related sensitive information or to decrease R&D investment in missile technology.
Maxar Technologies	MAXR US	22/12/2022	51.78	We believe regulatory risk is limited. We recommend a position long MAXR going into the go-shop period as a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid.
Chr Hansen	CHR DC	20/12/2022	501	The deal spread appears to be tight considering the long timeline and the regulatory risk.
Va-Q-tec	VQT GR	19/12/2022	25.4	We would be cautious to take a position long in VQT as there are key geographical and product overlap which might lead to antitrust scrutiny.
Apollo Endosurgery	APEN US	16/12/2022	9.91	The deal spread is tight; however, one might speculate on a counterbid as APEN’s attractive portfolio might attract other suitors. We don’t expect extended antitrust review.
Shaw Communications	SJR/B CN	13/12/2022	36.515	We believe that Shaw and Rogers have the upper hand in the Tribunal process.
Horizon Therapeutics	HZNP US	9/12/2022	97.22	We see some upside potential, as we expect that Horizon will receive an offer before the January 10 deadline, potentially around $110-120.
Univar Solutions	UNVR US	9/12/2022	33.4	We believe Brenntag could offer up to ~$40.50 for Univar, however it would need to issue a large number of new shares which would make the deal unattractive to the company despite the potential synergies.
Devro	DVO LN	8/12/2022	308.5	The merging parties anticipate a Q3 2023 deal close. This might indicate a high probability of an indepth antitrust review. Based on that, the deal spread appears to be somewhat tight.
Home Capital Group	HCG CB	2/12/2022	42.61	We believe the deal will receive the required regulatory approvals, however timing seems uncertain.
Origin Energy	ORG AU	1/12/2022	7.97	The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be narrow, as regulatory concerns justify a wide spread, however we expect that after a lengthy review the ACCC approval will be granted.
Imago BioSciences	IMGO US	30/11/2022	35.7	We believe the deal spread is not attractive. The substantial downside and limited upside make us refrain from recommending a long IMGO.
Activision Blizzard	ATVI US	22/11/2022	82.15	Regulatory update
Vantage Towers	VTWR GR	22/11/2022	32.7	The domination agreement offers some upside (5-15%) which incentivizes minorities not to tender into the offer. This increases the probability of a domination agreement post offer.
IAA Inc	IAA US	17/11/2022	39.95	The main risks are the shareholder votes. Other IAA shareholders might oppose and put pressure on RBA and IAA boards to renegotiate
Atlantia	ATL IM	16/11/2022	22.93	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas November 16, 2022
HomeServe	HSV LN	16/11/2022	1191	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas November 16, 2022
Store Capital	STOR US	16/11/2022	31.7	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the limited deal risk. We recommend a position long STOR.
Altra Industrial Motion	AIMC US	15/11/2022	58.43	We expect the deal to receive a second request in the US as the companies have several horizontal overlaps and are competing with each other in some niche markets.
Tegna	TGNA US	11/11/2022	18.99	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2022
Euronav	EURN BB	11/11/2022	18.08	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2022
Euronav	EURN BB	10/11/2022	12.8	Given the high probability of a successful tender offer and limited deal risk, we believe the 2.5% deal spread is somewhat wide. Therefore, one may consider a position long deal spread with a view on a possibly shorter timeline.
ReadyTech	RDY AU	08/11/2022	4	We believe, PEP will come back with a sweetened offer, thus we would recommend a position long in RDY, especially as the spread is more than 10%. However, the downside could be around AUD3-3.1
Abiomed	ABMD US	07/11/2022	373.99	The CVR does not look attractive given the long expected timeline to trigger milestone payments.
Distell	DGH SJ	04/11/2022	17305	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 4, 2022
Tower Semiconductor	TSEM US	04/11/2022	48.21	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 4, 2022
Sierra Wireless	SW CN	28/10/2022	40.33	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 28, 2022
SeaSpine Holdings	SPNE US	27/10/2022	6.21	We see some risk regarding the shareholder approvals, however we are still optimistic that both shareholder groups will vote for the merger.
Albertsons	ACI US	27/10/2022	20.36	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. However, political opposition, timeline and final consideration related uncertainties make us refrain from recommending a position long deal spread.
Sierra Wireless	SW CN	26/10/2022	40.54	We believe regulators will approve the deal without any remedies, as there are no horizontal overlaps and vertical issues are limited. Based on that, we would go long SWIR.
Interstrust	INTER NA	21/10/2022	19.94	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 21, 2022
Swedish Match	SWMA SS	21/10/2022	111.5	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 21, 2022
Aveva Group	AVV LN	20/10/2022	3147	Update on shareholder opposition - We believe target shareholder approval could be guaranteed with an offer of around GBp3300. We see Schneider sweetening its bid given that it is highly likely that publicly opposing shareholders have a blocking stake
ForgeRock	FORG US	19/10/2022	22.54	Overall, we believe regulators will sign-off the deal given the fragmented nature of the IAM submarkets. We note the substantial downside.
Atlantia	ATL IM	14/10/2022	22.39	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 14, 2022
Pushpay	PPH NZ	14/10/2022	1.15	A firm deal announcement could be made around NZD1.4, but we see it hard for BGH to win PPH Board’s support as it could be hard to negotiate a satisfactory offer for both parties.
Myovant	MYOV US	14/10/2022	25.1	Limited downside and high probability of an improved offer makes us recommend a long MYOV.
Poshmark	POSH US	11/10/2022	17.66	Deal risk is limited; thus the spread is tight. We expect the deal to close in mid-Q1 2023
1Life Healthcare	ONEM US	07/10/2022	16.98	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 7, 2022
HomeServe	HSV LN	07/10/2022	1185	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 7, 2022
DXC Technology	DXC US	07/10/2022	26.89	Assuming a 5% probability to an offer at $45 and 25% at $35 we would take a position long DXC below ~$27.
Capricorn Energy	CNE LN	07/10/2022	245.4	The main risks are the shareholder votes, thus we would retain from a position at this point.
Pendragon	PDG LN	04/10/2022	27.2	We believe that it would be difficult for the Board not to support Hedin’s 29p offer after the Board and other Top 5 shareholders were willing to engage with a third party in August at the same price. The Board might use the time until the PUSU deadline to try and find a better deal before granting its support to Hedin’s bid.
BTRS Holdings	BTRS US	04/10/2022	9.27	Deal risk is limited. We expect the deal to close in Q1 2023.
Pendal	PDL AU	30/09/2022	4.5	The market seems to be pessimistic about the deal. We would expect a deal close by the end of mid/late Q1.
Cano Health	CANO US	29/09/2022	8.84	We assign a high probability to a firm deal announcement. While activist shareholder and an analyst assume a $14 possible takeout price, with a conservative $12 takeout a riskreward still favors a position long CANO.
Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings	AAWW US	28/09/2022	95.88	The key risk is around debt financing, thus the deal spread is somewhat wide. We would refrain from a position long AAWW at this stage.
Tegna	TGNA US	23/09/2022	21.55	Update - We continue to consider the deal spread to be somewhat wide.
Avalara	AVLR US	23/09/2022	92.25	We would go long AVLR as we believe the majority of target shareholders will approve the deal, while we wouldn’t rule out a bump in the bid price if opposing shareholders gain enough support. However, we note that substantial (~30%) downside if the deal breaks on the vote.
Tyro Payments	TYR AU	16/09/2022	1.28	We expect that Tyro will receive a sweetened offer from either the consortium, another PE, or a strategic bidder.
GB Group	GBG LN	16/09/2022	5.94	Given the opportunistic timing of GTCR’s interest, there is a fair chance that talks fall apart. However, other PE firms might also turn up as GBG seems to be undervalued.
Signify Health	SGFY US	14/09/2022	29.07	The current 4.6% deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, assuming a deal close not earlier than mid-2023. We cannot rule out that vertical issues will be deeply scrutinized.
Brigham Minerals	MNRL US	13/09/2022	28.05	We believe that the 1Q2023 deal close guidance is manageable.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	09/09/2022	4750	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 9, 2022
Countryside Partnerships	CSP LN	09/09/2022	257.2	We see no major obstacles confronting the deal, as both shareholder and CMA approvals should be smooth. The deal spread appears to be wide, however we note that Vistry might be subject to a bid that could lead to a deal break.
Turquoise Hill Resources	TRQ CN	09/09/2022	41.23	Despite the materially improved bid from Rio Tinto, opposing shareholders have a good chance to derail the transaction.
RPS Group	RPS LN	05/09/2022	210	RPS is trading above terms on a counterbid/improved bid optionality, however we don’t see a counter bidder coming in, thus we would not take a position long RPS.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	02/09/2022	4750	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 2, 2022
Drilling Co of 1972	DRLCO DC	02/09/2022	369.4	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 2, 2022
AVEVA	AVV LN	02/09/2022	2810	We would recommend taking a position long AVEVA as we expect a firm deal in the range of GBp2950-3150.
Micro Focus International	MCRO LN	30/08/2022	519	The deal is expected to close in 1Q2023 due to the numerous regulatory approvals required.
Nearmap	NEA AU	26/08/2022	2.1	A counterbid from another private equity appears to be unlikely, however cannot be ruled out completely.
Recipe Unlimited	RECP CN	26/08/2022	19.85	One may consider a position long RECP going into deal announcement
Darktrace	DARK LN	22/08/2022	5.26	We believe there is good chance for an agreed firm deal with Thoma Bravo. The target might squeeze out an offer above 700p given the attractive valuation and possible counterbid interest.
OZ Minerals	OZL AU	18/08/2022	25.84	While deal rationale appears to be strong, the gap between parties’ valuation might be too large to overcome.
Atlantia	ATL IM	16/08/2022	22.84	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 16, 2022
Meggitt	MGGT LN	16/08/2022	792.8	Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 16, 2022
ChemoCentryx	CCXI US	16/08/2022	50.89	Based on the minor overlap in AAV treatment, regulatory scrutiny is unlikely to arise.
Global Blood Therapeutics	GBT US	15/08/2022	66.75	An HSR re-filing might not be ruled out, however a second request appears to be unlikely based on the overlap and the competitive dynamics of the SCD space. Product related developments are not carved out of MAE, however no significant events are expected before deal close.
iRobot	IRBT US	10/08/2022	59.5	We would not take a position at this time given the regulatory risks, long deal timeline and IRBT’s challenges.
Ping Identity Holding Corp	PING US	09/08/2022	28.01	Deal risk is limited. We don’t see upside to the offer price thus chances of a counterbid are low.
Quilter	QLT LN	09/08/2022	119.5	While it is hard to see whether a firm deal will materialize, we see the deal rationale, and would expect an offer price between GBp145-160.
Infomedia	IFM AU	03/08/2022	1.59	We expect a firm deal announcement with final offer price around AUD1.75-1.85.
Serica Energy	SQZ LN	02/08/2022	355.5	We don’t see the deal being accretive for bidder shareholders at current terms. Even assuming significant synergies does not change the math.
Link Net TBK	LINK IJ	29/07/2022	4650	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 29, 2022
1Life Healthcare	ONEM US	29/07/2022	16.97	We believe that the deal might get a second request given the global scrutiny surrounding Big Tech, however it is likely to be approved given the lack of significant antitrust concerns
Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives	IEA US	29/07/2022	14.14	We don’t expect an extended antitrust review given the competitive and fragmented market. As per our valuation, counterbid is also possible.
Ironsource	IS US	28/07/2022	3.87	We see the merger as a good opportunity both for Ironsource and Unity shareholders, with some extra risk for Unity, as the leverage gained on a ad-tech asset might be badly timed.
Meridian Bioscience	VIVO US	25/07/2022	32.48	The deal spread reflects the DOJ investigation-related uncertainty.
Epizyme	EPZM US	21/07/2022	1.48	We see no major risk for the deal to finalize, but we are cautious about whether the shareholders will receive any CVR, although one may consider buying an almost free option for the possible CVR payouts.
Resolute Forest Products	RFP US	19/07/2022	20.22	We believe the deal will be approved with remedies after an extended Canadian antitrust review. The likelihood of the CVR payout seems highly uncertain.
Intertrust NV	INTER NA	15/07/2022	19.04	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 15, 2022
Vivo Energy	VVO LN	15/07/2022	152.8	Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 15, 2022
Valora Holding	VALN SW	14/07/2022	259	The deal poses no major risk, therefore probability of close is high at offer terms. A counterbid cannot be ruled out, however we see it as a wild card scenario.
Autogrill Spa	AGL IM	14/07/2022	6.3	The transfer of Edizione’s 50.3% stake is currently expected to close in Q1 2023, subject to regulatory approvals, while the transaction inclusive of mandatory takeover offer settlement is expected to be completed by Q2 2023.
Twitter	TWTR US	12/07/2022	32.65	We believe that Musk’s arguments are not strong enough to justify deal termination. While Twitter has good chance to enforce specific performance, the court might prefer the parties agreeing in a cut price deal or awarding damages instead of forcing an unwilling buyer to acquire Twitter.
LifeWorks	LWRK CN	08/07/2022	31.11	The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however timing of the deal and dividend differential changes make a position difficult to evaluate. Low deal risk and significant downside makes us cautious.
ContourGlobal	GLO LN	05/07/2022	2.525	One might consider going long GLO as deal risk seems to be limited. However, we note the substantial downside.
Radius Health	RDUS US	05/07/2022	10.48	We see some risk regarding the CVR payment condition and the 50+% tender offer condition too, not ruling out that the bidder consortium will raise the offer.
Swedish Match	SWMA SS	01/07/2022	104.55	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 1, 2022
Drilling Co of 1972	DRLCO DC	01/07/2022	282.6	Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 1, 2022

Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest). As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level.

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