Stock

Ticker

Date Published

Market Price on Publication Date

Recommendation

MEG Energy

MEG CN

7/1/2025

25.73

MEG is trading above the offer price. We see a long opportunity based on a low probability increased offer or a counterbid from close peers. A short position is not recommended, as MEG's trading premium aligns with the lower end of historical valuation patterns, thus limiting the downside.

Mandalay Resources

MND CN

6/27/2025

4.74

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 27, 2025

Spectris

SXS LN

6/27/2025

3854

We see a long position attractive during the bidding phase, but advise exiting once a final acquirer emerges given potential regulatory delays and asymmetric downside risk.

GMS

GMS US

6/27/2025

97.33

By our valuation upside appears to be limited, and the alternative takeover targets makes a heavy bidding war unlikely. Additionally, the potentially longer HD deal timeline limits further upside from a firm deal announcement.

Banco de Sabadell

SAB SM

6/20/2025

2.716

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 20, 2025

Lifeway Foods

LWAY US

6/20/2025

24.52

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 20, 2025

FARO Technologies

FARO US

6/20/2025

43.72

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 20, 2025

Santos

STO AU

6/20/2025

7.7

We believe both parties are highly motivated to finalize a firm deal. As the transaction nears the due diligence phase, we recommend initiating a long position in STO AU, anticipating the spread will tighten upon the firm deal announcement.

Alphawave IP

AWE LN

6/20/2025

174.7

We recommend monitoring for potential long entry opportunities should the spread widen, as regulatory hurdles appear manageable based on our assessment. That said, we advise a degree of caution given the potential for an extended timeline, primarily driven by uncertainties surrounding the Chinese approval process.

Adriatic Metals

ADT1 LN

6/19/2025

263.5

The deal spread appears to be wide. Consequently, we recommend a long position on ADT1 LN and a short position on DPM CN.

Barloworld

BAW SJ

6/13/2025

10966

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 13, 2025

Fortnox

FNOX SS

6/13/2025

89.76

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 13, 2025

NV5 Global

NVEE US

6/13/2025

22.92

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 13, 2025

Informatica

INFA US

6/13/2025

24.09

We believe the current deal spread appears tight relative to the moderate risk of an extended regulatory review, including the potential for an HSR second request. Given the lack of upside risk, we recommend a short INFA position heading into the initial HSR expiration date.

Mandalay Resources

MND CN

6/11/2025

5.13

We recommend monitoring the spread actively, as it is currently somewhat tight but exhibits meaningful fluctuations that are not directly linked to merger-related news. No premium is offered, which limits downside.

Cross Country Healthcare

CCRN US

6/6/2025

12.91

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 6, 2025

PlayAGS

AGS US

6/6/2025

12.38

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 6, 2025

Cross Country Healthcare

CCRN US

6/6/2025

12.91

We view the current ~30% deal spread as an attractive entry point for a long position, offering a compelling risk-reward profile at this stage of the process. While regulatory scrutiny was expected due to competitive overlaps, we ultimately expect the deal to receive clearance

Parkland

PKI CN

6/6/2025

39.39

We assign a high probability that the required two-thirds shareholder approval will not be secured. While antitrust approvals are ultimately likely, we see a moderate risk of regulatory scrutiny, which contributes to the current deal spread. Given these factors, we recommend a short position in PKI CN ahead of the June 24 shareholder vote.

AvidXchange

AVDX US

6/4/2025

9.78

We view the current deal spread as tight, with limited fundamental risk to deal closure based on our regulatory assessment. While the probability of completion remains high, we see potential upside from a faster-than-expected timeline. Hence, we recommend looking out for entry points in the event of spread widening, which would present an attractive risk-reward opportunity.

NV5 Global

NVEE US

5/30/2025

22.1

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 30, 2025

Skechers USA

SKX US

5/30/2025

62.04

We recommend to hold SKX, as the current spread to the $63.00 offer appears correctly priced given the high deal certainty. With limited upside and minimal risk, the trade offers little additional value at current levels. On any spread widening, we would consider a long SKX.

NV5 Global

NVEE US

5/30/2025

22.1

The deal spread appears relatively wide, considering our expectation that regulatory and shareholder approvals are unlikely to present significant obstacles. Given the potential for a counterbid during the go-shop period, we recommend a long position in NVEE to capture potential upside.

Toyota Industries

6201 JP

5/26/2025

18115

Given the narrow deal spread, we do not recommend initiating a long position in Toyota Industries at the current price level. However, if the share price declines, a long position could be considered. Key risk appears to be financing.

Fortnox

FNOX SS

5/23/2025

86.82

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 23, 2025

Fortnox

FNOX SS

5/21/2025

86.96

The main risk is achieving the 90% acceptance threshold, but given the fair valuation and strategic rationale, a waiver appears likely if required. With the current spread, we recommend a long position in FNOX SS.

Barloworld

BAW SJ

5/16/2025

10830

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 16, 2025

FARO Technologies

FARO US

5/16/2025

42.28

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 16, 2025

Verallia

VRLA FP

5/16/2025

27.98

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 16, 2025

FARO Technologies

FARO US

5/16/2025

42.28

The current deal spread appears tight relative to the underlying regulatory risk. We recommend initiating a short position in FARO approaching the end of the HSR waiting period, as multiple areas of competitive overlap significantly increase the probability of a second request, which could widen the spread meaningfully.

Dongwon F&B

049770 KS

5/9/2025

37550

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 9, 2025

Andlauer Healthcare Group

AND CN

5/9/2025

53.5

Given the potential for an extended regulatory review, the current spread seems relatively tight. We suggest seeking entry opportunities at a sub-2% spread for short positions in AND CN ahead of the waiting period expiry. However, if a regulatory extension is granted, we recommend shifting to a long position, as we do not anticipate the deal being blocked.

Golden Ocean Group

GOGL US

5/9/2025

7.48

The deal spread appears relatively wide. We anticipate no significant regulatory obstacles or shareholder opposition, and therefore recommend a long position on the spread. However, due to CMBT’s limited free float, establishing an effective hedge may be challenging. While we are positive on the deal, an unhedged long position warrants caution due to the associated risks.

Datagroup

D6H GY

5/9/2025

56.5

The domination agreement alternative offers a ~20% upside, providing a strong incentive for minority shareholders not to tender into the offer. However, if the delisting offer succeeds, the DPLTA may become unnecessary. We note that the tender offer is not subject to a minimum acceptance condition, making the likelihood of the deal falling apart on the minimum acceptance condition very low.

SpringWorks Therapeutics

SWTX US

4/30/2025

46.3

The deal spread reflects the limited deal risk. However, we note that the takeout valuation leads us believe that a counterbid could be justified.We recommend a long position SWTX on any potential hiccups in the antitrust reviews or in anticipation of a counterbid.

Dongwon F&B

049770 KS

4/30/2025

36850

We recommend going long 049770 KS, short 006040 KS as we see the spread to be relatively wide given the high deal close certainty and the lack of material downside risk.

Ercros

ECR SM

4/25/2025

3.095

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 25, 2025

ProAssurance

PRA US

4/25/2025

23.1

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 25, 2025

Assura

AGR LN

4/25/2025

48.5

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 25, 2025

De La Rue

DLAR LN

4/25/2025

128.5

The deal spread appears tight, but given the potential for a superior proposal, one may consider a position long in DLAR LN. We note that approximately 29% of irrevocable commitments are binding even if a competing offer is issued but does not become unconditional, thereby limiting the upside optionality.

Bakkavor

BAKK LN

4/25/2025

171

The current deal spread appears wide relative to the high likelihood of a firm offer. While regulatory uncertainty remains a key gating item, we expect the spread to tighten meaningfully following a formal announcement. Given this, we see an attractive opportunity in taking a long BAKK and short GNC position ahead of the firm offer.

Shibaura Electronics

6957 JP

4/24/2025

5690

We recommend going long 6957 JP as there is a moderate probability of further upside. Shibaura Electronics is currently the target of a bidding war, with Taiwanese firm Yageo having announced a tender offer in February, which has now been contested by a rival tender offer from Japan's Minebea Mitsumi announced in April.

Dun & Bradstreet

DNB US

4/17/2025

8.75

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Consequently, we recommend long DNB. While we do not expect a counterbid, we still acknowledge it as a low probability upside opportunity.

Mr Cooper

COOP US

4/15/2025

114.39

We are optimistic about the deal closing. However, we view a near-term long entry as challenging given the elevated short interest in RKT and potential pricing dislocations stemming from the recently announced RDFN/RKT transaction.

Ercros

ECR SM

4/15/2025

2.945

The deal spread appears excessive for both offers, even considering the regulatory uncertainty. While we view Esseco’s bid as having a higher likelihood of approval, Bondalti’s offer could also receive clearance, potentially subject to remedies. Reaching the 75% minimum acceptance threshold may be challenging due to opposing shareholders; however, we believe some may reconsider their stance given the current valuation and market conditions. Overall, we recommend a long position in ECR, supported by the attractive spread and the presence of competing bids.

Verallia

VRLA FP

4/11/2025

27.1

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 11, 2025

Redfin

RDFN US

4/11/2025

8.21

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 11, 2025

Seven & i

3382 JP

4/11/2025

1973

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 11, 2025

Verallia

VRLA FP

4/11/2025

27.1

Given the limited deal-related risk, we recommend going long VRLA and tendering it into the BWGI offer. Two key risks appear to be the minimum acceptance level and a potential pullback of the offer filing.

GoTo

GOTO IJ

4/8/2025

71

We do not see a firm deal materializing in the current environment, given the lack of a formal proposal, and regulatory uncertainty. Even in the case of normalized conditions and a firm agreement, we do not expect regulatory approvals due to the extensive market overlap and the near-monopoly position the combined entity would hold in narrow, highly concentrated markets such as ride-hailing and food delivery in Indonesia and Singapore. Consequently, we recommend a conditional short position on GOTO response to the price surges driven by potential deal-related news.

AZEK

AZEK US

4/3/2025

48.2

We recommend a long position in AZEK and a short position in JHX within the current spread, as regulatory risks appear minimal, and AZEK’s valuation remains attractive for shareholders despite negative media coverage surrounding the deal.

Assura

AGR LN

3/28/2025

46.32

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 28, 2025

Banco BPM

BAMI IM

3/28/2025

9.59

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 28, 2025

ProAssurance

PRA US

3/28/2025

23.34

The deal spread appears relatively tight given the likelihood of an HSR second request. We recommend seeking an entry opportunity for a short position in PRA as the spread narrows, until the expiry of the initial HSR waiting period.

Discover Financial

DFS US

3/27/2025

162.51

Underhedging the COF leg of either a long or a short deal spread seems reasonable. We continue to recommend initiating a short DFS long COF on any spread tightening.

Makino Milling Machine

6135 JP

3/25/2025

11600

We believe the base case remains deal closure at the current offer price of JPY 11,000, if NIDEC approves a delayed tender offer launch. However, given the ongoing strategic interest and potential counterbids from MBK Partners or NSSK, we see meaningful upside potential toward JPY 12,000–12,500. We recommend closely monitoring the situation and considering taking a long position if the share price trades in the JPY 11,300–11,400 range.

Lifeway Foods

LWAY US

3/21/2025

23.85

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 21, 2025

Redfin

RDFN US

3/21/2025

11.04

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 21, 2025

Banco BPM

BAMI IM

3/21/2025

10.145

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 21, 2025

Redfin

RDFN US

3/21/2025

11.04

The deal spread appears is tight, with an implied probability of closing that we view as very high (~98%). Given the moderate risk of regulatory challenges, including a potential pull and refile or a second request, and the substantial downside in a deal break scenario, we recommend shorting the target and going long on the bidder, as the spread would likely widen in the event of a regulatory hiccup.

Lifeway Foods

LWAY US

3/21/2025

23.85

We recommend a long position in LWAY, as a board change is likely imminent, putting an end to further obstruction to the merger.

Manawa Energy

MNW NZ

3/20/2025

4.65

The deal spread still implies a 30%+ probability of deal close, which we believe is overly optimistic. We see less than 10% likelihood of closing thus we recommend a short MNW with limited or no hedge of CEN shares.

Allegro MicroSystems

ALGM US

3/14/2025

26.78

We believe the implied probability of closing is somewhat overstated, as the chances of a significantly higher offer, a counterbid, or the board accepting the current price range appear low. Given this, we recommend a short position in ALGM. However, if an agreement is reached, we expect the spread to remain attractive for entry, as we anticipate the deal will ultimately close, with potential for a faster-than-expected completion.

Surgery Partners

SGRY US

3/13/2025

23.61

We see multiple scenarios for an improved offer price, and the current non-binding proposal already offers a reasonable return. While market turbulence slightly reduces the likelihood of a firm deal announcement, the healthcare sector remains relatively insulated, making Surgery Partners an attractive asset. We recommend a long position on SGRY.

Renewi

RWI LN

3/13/2025

854

We believe that the deal spread is driven by the large downside risk, however as there are limited risks to the deal timeline, we recommend a long position in potential volatility related spread widening.

Infinera

INFN US

3/7/2025

6.64

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 7, 2025

Barloworld

BAW SJ

3/7/2025

9808

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 7, 2025

Subsea 7

SUBC NO

3/6/2025

158.3

The deal spread appears wide, and we believe approval is likely, even with potential regulatory delays. Additionally, we see a potential upside in the timing, as the deal could close earlier than expected. We anticipate the spread to tighten upon the publication of the merger agreement and recommend a long position on the spread.

Barloworld

BAW SJ

3/3/2025

10222

We recommend a hold position on BAW SJ in the range of ZAR 100 to ZAR 102, given the potential upside from the Standby Offer, balanced by risks related to the minimum acceptance condition and uncertainties regarding the Russian operations.

Shutterstock

SSTK US

2/28/2025

21.49

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 28, 2025

Cross Country Healthcare

CCRN US

2/28/2025

17.16

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 28, 2025

Just Eat Takeaway

TKWY NA

2/28/2025

19.42

The deal spread appears wide, but the prolonged timeline and regulatory risks make a long position unattractive for now. However, potential spread widening due to regulatory hiccups could create attractive entry points later, as such challenges are likely surmountable.

H&E Equipment Services

HEES US

2/28/2025

95.9

Following the expiration of the go-shop period and URI’s decision not to submit an offer, we do not anticipate a bidding war. We see a pull-and-refile as the worst-case scenario, as regulatory and shareholder vote risks are limited.

Domain Holdings Australia

DHG AU

2/26/2025

4.35

Given that DHG AU is currently trading at AUD 4.35, above CoStar’s non-binding AUD 4.20 proposal, the market is pricing in a higher bid. We see limited upside potential, and an unlikely counterbid. Nine’s decision is still uncertain; thus, we recommend shorting DHG AU.

Entra

ENTRA NO

2/21/2025

115

The negative spread and market reaction suggest a low acceptance rate. The major shareholders are at a stalemate, but if one decides to sell, an offer at a low teens discount to EPRA NAV — in line with precedents — could imply ~20-30% upside potential.

Assura

AGR LN

2/21/2025

44.08

We believe that a long position appears more attractive than betting on a deal break. However, we note the large downside risk and see an improved bid unlikely.

Dowlais Group

DWL LN

2/19/2025

72.75

We recommend taking no action until shareholder approvals are secured, given the risk of rejection. However, if a U.S. second request is announced, we suggest going long DWL, as regulatory hurdles are unlikely to derail the deal, and the spread should tighten upon clearance.

Cross Country Healthcare

CCRN US

2/14/2025

18.15

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 14, 2025

Barloworld

BAW SJ

2/14/2025

10800

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 14, 2025

Cross Country Healthcare

CCRN US

2/14/2025

18.15

We recommend initiating a short position before the end of the pull-and-refile period, given the limited upside potential and the high likelihood of spread widening if the deal receives a Second Request.

Mediobanca

MB IM

2/12/2025

16.915

We believe the current offer is likely to fail due to the minimum acceptance condition. However, from a long position perspective, the upside potential appears limited, while from a short position perspective, the timeline is relatively prolonged. Given these considerations, we do not recommend taking a position at this time. Instead, we suggest waiting for potential opportunities that may arise as the BMPS vote or the tendering period approaches.

Crayon Group

CRAYN NO

2/11/2025

111

We believe there is a reasonable chance that the 90% minimum acceptance threshold may not be achieved. However, we estimate that CRAYN is trading at around its standalone value, therefore we recommend a long position.

MultiChoice

MCG SJ

2/7/2025

10675

Given the regulatory complexities but strong international merger rationale and the parties' ability to address hurdles, we expect regulatory approval and recommend a long position in MultiChoice.

Beacon Roofing Supply

BECN US

2/4/2025

118.46

Given the potential for a higher counterbid from strategic buyers like Lowe’s or private equity firms such as Bain Capital and Carlyle Group, along with room for QXO to improve its offer, we recommend to long BECN.

Surmodics

SRDX US

2/3/2025

34.07

We believe the recent decline in SRDX’s share price is an overreaction. Given our expectation that the merger will ultimately receive approval, we recommend a long position in SRDX.

Shutterstock

SSTK US

1/31/2025

29.52

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 31, 2025

Banco de Sabadell

SAB SM

1/31/2025

2.278

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 31, 2025

Shutterstock

SSTK US

1/31/2025

29.52

We believe the deal carries significant antitrust risks. We recommend going long on SSTK and short on GETY, as SSTK’s standalone prospects appear stronger, and GETY is likely to trade at a substantially lower standalone in the event of a deal break.

Intra-Cellular Therapies

ITCI US

1/29/2025

127.02

We believe that the deal does not face any significant antitrust risk. We recommend a long position in the event of potential spread widening, in case of a pull-and-refile or a second request.

Insignia Financial

IFL AU

1/24/2025

4.57

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 24, 2025

Soho House

SHCO US

1/24/2025

7.68

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 24, 2025

Patterson Companies

PDCO US

1/24/2025

30.93

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 24, 2025

HasiCorp

HCP US

1/24/2025

34.25

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 24, 2025

H&E Equipment Services

HEES US

1/24/2025

88.5

While our overall stance remains neutral, we would consider taking a long position in HEES either at the conclusion of the go-shop period or in the event of a pull-and-refile. The current valuation metrics do not indicate a strong likelihood of a counterbid during the go-shop period, and we view any potential disruptions in the deal process as low-probability.

Banco de Sabadell

SAB SM

1/24/2025

2.21

Based on the upside optionality and the limited downside around EUR1.85-1.90 we recommend a long SAB short BBVA hedged under the current terms.

Spirent Communications

SPT LN

1/17/2025

176.4

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 17, 2025

Spirent Communications

SPT LN

1/17/2025

176.4

The deal spread appears somewhat wide, therfore, we recommend a long SPT LN.

Insignia Financial

IFL AU

1/14/2025

4.21

Given the high probability of a firm deal announcement and the upside optionality we would recommend a long IFL.

Banco de Sabadell

SAB SM

1/10/2025

2.018

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 10, 2025

Barloworld

BAW SJ

1/10/2025

10649

The deal spread fairly reflects the risks related to the shareholder vote and potential violations of the Russian sanctions.

Soho House

SHCO US

1/10/2025

7.66

We believe that Yucaipa’s control over the board significantly reduces deal completion  risk but introduces potential timing uncertainties due to conditional equity rollover negotiations.

Patterson Companies

PDCO US

12/20/2024

30.93

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 20, 2024

PlayAGS

AGS US

12/20/2024

11.5

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 20, 2024

Banco de Sabadell

SAB SM

12/20/2024

1.8445

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 20, 2024

Encavis

ECV GR

12/20/2024

17.31

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 20, 2024

International Distribution Services

IDS LN

12/20/2024

362.2

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 20, 2024

Patterson Companies

PDCO US

12/19/2024

30.91

Given the limited deal risk and the upside optionality we recommend a long PDCO.

Interpublic Group of Companies

IPG US

12/19/2024

28.63

The deal spread appears relatively tight, considering the potential for a prolonged timeline. Although the merger is accretive for both shareholder groups, we remain cautious about shareholder approvals, particularly in light of the stock price movements since the announcement.

Infinera

INFN US

12/13/2024

6.59

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 13, 2024

Sunstone Hotel Investors

SHO US

12/11/2024

12.23

SHO share price appears to front run a possible offer however talks are not imminent and upside might be limited and downside from these levels is substantial assuming the probability of a form deal.

Direct Line Insurance Group

DLG LN

12/10/2024

247

The deal spread is primarily driven by regulatory concerns and the potential for a prolonged timeline. We expect a post-announcement spread of 5-7%, implying that the market anticipates a high probability of a firm deal announcement.

HasiCorp

HCP US

12/6/2024

33.78

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 6, 2024

Berry Global

BERY US

12/6/2024

69.65

The deal spread appears to be tight, given the potential for a lengthy deal timeline.

Summit Materials

SUM US

12/3/2024

50.74

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight, considering the risk of a second request.

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products

USAP US

11/29/2024

44.42

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 29, 2024

Banco BPM

BAMI IM

11/29/2024

7.204

The current price of BAMI shares suggests that UniCredit's offer may be undervalued, and the BAMI board's resistance indicates a potential for a higher price. A bidding war could drive the share price up, though the deal timeline may extend as negotiations progress. We also note the risk around Italian government approvals.

Lifeway Foods

LWAY US

11/26/2024

24.57

We believe that there is a strong probability of a firm deal with some upside potential.

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products

USAP US

11/22/2024

44.27

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 22, 2024

Encavis

ECV1 GR

11/22/2024

17.4

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 22, 2024

Avid Bioservices

CDMO US

11/22/2024

12.3

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 22, 2024

Juniper Networks

JNPR US

11/22/2024

35.91

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 22, 2024

Air Transportation Services Group

ATSG US

11/22/2024

21.96

The deal spread appears to reflect the limited upside optionality. A potential delay of the aviation-related approvals might cause spread widening in the coming months.

Latin Resources

LRS AU

11/22/2024

0.175

The deal spread appears to reflect a low likelihood of significant downside risk and takes into account the possibility of an extension to the end date.

Encavis

ECV1 GR

11/21/2024

17.2

The remaining deal spread is driven by the substantial downside and uncertainty regarding the timing of the deal's closure. We expect the remaining regulatory approvals to be granted soon, with the deal likely closing by mid-December.

Avid Bioservices

CDMO US

11/15/2024

12.14

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 15, 2024

Liberty Broadband

LBRDA US

11/15/2024

87.64

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 15, 2024

Avid Bioservices

CDMO US

11/15/2024

12.14

We believe a long position appears appealing, given the relatively wide spread and the potential for further upside.

Anima Holding

ANIM IM

11/15/2024

6.16

The narrow deal spread suggests low market uncertainty surrounding the merger's completion. However, we believe there remains potential for Banco BPM to raise the offer if the minimum acceptance threshold appears at risk of not being met.

Altair Engineering

ALTR US

11/8/2024

103.65

The deal spread reflects the uncertainty surrounding regulatory approvals. However, we believe that the limited downside risk may present an attractive entry opportunity at a later stage.

Burberry Group

BRBY LN

11/8/2024

804.8

We do not expect an imminent deal; however, the strong deal rationale and the attractive entry point for Moncler give a favorable upside optionality.

Marel

MAREL NA

11/1/2024

3.93

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 1, 2024

Universal Stainless & Alloy Products

USAP US

10/31/2024

43.72

We believe that the current spread is attractive given the limited downside and high probability of timely approvals.

Cab Payments

CABP LN

10/30/2024

119.8

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, considering that there is room for mutually beneficial deals for the parties.

MultiChoice

MCG SJ

10/25/2024

11102

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 25, 2024

Korea Zinc

010130 KS

10/25/2024

1253000

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 25, 2024

Sterling Check

STER US

10/25/2024

16.74

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 25, 2024

Arcadium Lithium

ALTM  US

10/25/2024

5.46

We recommend a cautiously optimistic position on this deal, as the primary risk of CFIUS approval appears manageable given Rio Tinto’s established U.S. presence and alignment with U.S. critical mineral policy goals.

TI Fluid Systems

TIFS LN

10/25/2024

176.2

We anticipate a firm deal announcement in early November, likely tightening the spread to around 2-3% post-announcement.

Liberty Broadband

LBRDA US

10/18/2024

79.23

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 18, 2024

Marel

MAREL NA

10/18/2024

3.55

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 18, 2024

Seven & i

3382 JP

10/18/2024

2212

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 18, 2024

Unieuro

UNIR IM

10/18/2024

11.5

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 18, 2024

MultiChoice

MCG SJ

10/18/2024

11109

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide; however, we acknowledge the risks related to timing, particularly in connection with the public interest test and foreign ownership restrictions.

Barnes Group

B US

10/15/2024

46.53

The deal spread reflects the low risks associated with the merger. Given the limited overlap and precedent transactions, we estimate that the merger could be finalized in early Q1, 2025, indicating a potential upside in the timing.

Concentric

COIC SS

10/14/2024

212

Since the profit warning announcement, the spread has widened significantly, and due to the short timing, it presents an attractive opportunity.

Unieuro

UNIR IM

10/11/2024

11.4

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 11, 2024

Fuji Soft

9749 JP

10/11/2024

9000

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 11, 2024

Axonics

AXNX US

10/11/2024

70.3

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 11, 2024

Santos Brasil

STBP3 BZ

10/11/2024

14.73

The final offer price is subject to multiple adjustments. However, going into the stake sale close uncertainty will be reduced.

Liberty Broadband

LBRDA US

10/8/2024

77.8

We believe that a firm deal is highly probable with a 13-14% upside potential and a shorter timeline.

Korea Zinc

010130 KS

10/4/2024

776000

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 4, 2024

Shin Kong Financial Holding

2888 TT

10/4/2024

12.1

Despite negative comments from shareholder activists, we anticipate the deal will receive approval in the upcoming vote. While it is expected to undergo rigorous regulatory scrutiny, we believe there is a strong likelihood of ultimate clearance.

Korea Zinc

010130 KS

10/3/2024

713000

MBK’s partial tender offer is an appealing opportunity in the currently traded range of KRW705,00-715,000.

Marel

MAREL NA

30/09/2024

3.45

We believe that closure can be expected before the end of this year. The spread appears to be attractive but it is likely to be driven by the large downside.

Tellurian

TELL US

27/09/2024

0.9701

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 27, 2024

Commerzbank

CBK GR

27/09/2024

16.37

We believe the current share price ratio offers limited upside potential for a long  position unless the merger ratio substantially exceeds 0.45 when the deal goes live. Given the ongoing opposition and potential for a protracted timeline, we expect the spread to remain wide following the announcement.

Gatos Silver

GATO US

26/09/2024

16.38

The deal spread appears to be relatively tight considering the low-probability risks regarding the timely closure. 

Revance Therapeutics

RVNC US

24/09/2024

5.495

We believe that the deal will ultimately happen as Teoxane would be negatively affected if it would terminate its DA with RVNC and the deal would fail.

Surmodics

SRDX US

20/9/2024

39.26

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 20, 2024

Fuji Soft

9749 JP

20/9/2024

9070

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 20, 2024

Tritax EuroBox

EBOX LN

19/09/2024

73.3

A potential cash offer from Brookfield presents a compelling upside opportunity for the deal.

Fuji Soft

9749 JP

17/09/2024

9350

We see the opportunity for a bidding war which can provide favorable risk-return opportunities around JPY9,000-9,100

Tellurian

TELL US

13/09/2024

0.9226

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 13, 2024

Kindred Group

KINDSDB SS

13/09/2024

129.2

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 13, 2024

Frontier Communications

FYBR US

13/09/2024

36.44

The current deal spread appears to fairly reflect the expected lengthy timeline for completion.

Everi Holdings

EVRI US

10/09/2024

13.11

We believe there is some upside to the deal timeline based on precedents.

Seven & i

3382 JP

06/09/2024

2133.5

We see significant room to increase the offer, however we also see significant financing hurdles and regulatory challenges.

Surmodics

SRDX US

06/09/2024

38.83

The deal spread has widened following the second request from regulators. While the primary concern appears to be the overlap with Biocoat, we believe the deal still has a reasonable chance of receiving approval.

Salcef Group

SCF IM

30/08/2024

25.8

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 30, 2024

Talgo

TLGO SM

30/08/2024

3.89

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 30, 2024

Arvida

ARV NZ

30/08/2024

1.66

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 30, 2024

Neoen

NEOEN FP

30/08/2024

38.72

We believe that the spread is tight, and the deal can gain regulatory approvals on schedule.

Kellanova

K US

27/08/2024

80.79

The deal spread appears somewhat wide considering the expected timing of the deal.

R1 RCM

RCM US

23/08/2024

14.04

The deal spread reflects the limited transaction-related risk and a low probability of significant upside potential. One might consider taking a long position on RCM to capitalize on the potential for a counterbid.

Saras

SRS IM

16/08/2024

1.6005

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 16, 2024

Darktrace

DARK LN

16/08/2024

590.2

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 16, 2024

Unieuro

UNIR IM

16/08/2024

11.28

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. However, the uncertainty regarding the board stance and the largest shareholder is reflected by the market price.

Envestnet

ENV US

13/08/2024

61.99

We believe that the current offer price does not contain a meaningful controlling premium over the standalone value. Thus we believe that the deal might fail due to the shareholder vote. If the deal breaks we do not expect a significant downside.  

APM Human Services International

APM AU

09/08/2024

1.425

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 9, 2024

Arvida

ARV NZ

09/08/2024

1.62

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 9, 2024

Arvida

ARV NZ

09/08/2024

1.62

We believe that the deal spread offers an attractive opportunity with potential upside to the deal timeline. We do not expect the deal to extend into next year.

Tellurian

TELL US

09/08/2024

0.9095

The deal spread is driven by the substantial downside TELL would face if the deal breaks. Despite this downside and the tight end date, we see limited deal risk and consider the deal spread somewhat wide.

Cerevel

CERE US

02/08/2024

44.96

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 2, 2024

Stelco

STLC CN

02/08/2024

66.59

We see limited regulatory risk, however we note the substantial downside in case of a deal break.

Addiko Bank

ADKO AV

01/08/2024

21.6

Despite the attractive offer, the long timeline and the intricate shareholder structure make us cautious.

Paramount Global

PARA US

26/07/2024

11.19

We would not take a position as the long timeline and possible shareholder litigation pose a great risk to the deal’s completion.

Morphic Holding

MORF US

22/07/2024

56.59

We believe that the spread is tight. We do not expect any hurdles in antitrust or shareholder acceptance. The 3Q timing estimate by the parties is reasonable.

Pacific Smiles Group

PSQ AU

19/07/2024

1.82

The widening spread reflects the opposition of Genesis Capital. However, the deal would offer a favorable premium for the shareholders, and we expect that the participation ratio at the Scheme meeting to be around 80-85%.  

Darktrace

DARK LN

19/07/2024

581

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 19, 2024

Sterling Check

STER US

19/07/2024

15.52

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 19, 2024

Talgo

TLGO SM

19/07/2024

4.065

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 19, 2024

APM Human Services International

APM AU

19/07/2024

1.395

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 19, 2024

Britvic

BVIC LN

17/07/2024

1264

The deal spread is in line with deal related risks, with potential for upside in the timeline.

Spirit AeroSystems

SPR US

12/07/2024

34.56

The spread appears to be somewhat wide, as there is a potential upside to the deal timeline.

Infinera

INFN US

12/07/2024

6.07

The significant deal spread demonstrates substantial risks regarding antitrust approval and potential timing consequences.

Amedisys

AMED US

12/07/2024

98.09

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 12, 2024

Canadian Western Bank

CWB CN

05/07/2024

44.3

The deal spread appears to be driven by the long timeline and the large downside. We see timing risk to be significant at this point.

Stericycle

SRCL US

03/07/2024

58.22

We believe the deal is likely to face regulatory hurdles in the US.

International Distribution Services

IDS LN

28/06/2024

320.4

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 28, 2024

Covestro

1COV GR

28/06/2024

54.06

The current spread compared to the proposed price appears to be somewhat wide assuming a high probability a firm deal announcement a downside around EUR 35 and a 4–6-month deal timeline

Darktrace

DARK LN

26/06/2024

580.4

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the limited deal risk.

Bitfarms

BITF US

21/06/2024

3.12

With the poison pill BITF board can stall only for another six months. We believe that RIOT shows a strong commitment to reaching a firm deal. At some point the two boards are likely to reach an agreement, otherwise RIOT will be able to circumvent/vote down the poison pill.

Silk Road Medical

SILK US

21/06/2024

26.96

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight. As per our analysis, an HSR second request is unlikely but a pull and refile cannot be completely ruled out.

APM Human Services International

APM AU

14/06/2024

1.38

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, driven by the downside. However, we see an upside to the deal timeline, and to the deal price in case of a low probability improved bid or counterbid.

International Distribution Services

IDS LN

12/06/2024

333.2

We believe that there is an upside to the deal timeline. However, we would wait with entering a position until the negotiations unfold as there is significant downside to the deal price.

Altium

ALU AU

07/06/2024

67.33

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 7, 2024

Marathon Oil

MRO US

07/06/2024

27.88

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight despite the limited upside optionality. The US regulatory approval should not be an issue however, aggressive US regulators are unlikely to approve the deal without a deeper scrutiny

Banco de Sabadell

SAB SM

04/06/2024

1.8525

We believe the extended timeline introduces considerable risks to the deal.

PlayAGS

AGS US

31/05/2024

11.52

Assuming the upside optionality for the deal timeline and the takeout valuation on a counterbid or shareholder opposition we believe the deal spread is somewhat wide.

Perficient

PRFT US

28/05/2024

73.81

We don’t see significant regulatory hurdles and expect the deal to close in early4Q 2024.

Shockwave Medical

SWAV US

24/05/2024

334.15

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 24, 2024

Axonics

AXNX US

24/05/2024

67.22

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 24, 2024

Keywords Studios

KWS LN

24/05/2024

2230

We see a high probability of a firm offer and, given the limited deal risks, a tight deal spread post-announcement.

Saras

SRS IM

17/05/2024

1.765

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 17, 2024

Shockwave Medical

SWAV US

17/05/2024

330.13

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 17, 2024

Hibbett

HIBB US

17/05/2024

86.21

The offer premium appers to be on the lower end when compared to peers and precedents.

Anglo American

AAL LN

16/05/2024

2629

We believe that the accelerated restructuring of AAL will be a successful step to defend AAL against the BHP proposals. We don’t see BHP offering a price acceptable for AAL board.

Salcef Group

SCF IM

10/05/2024

25.95

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 10, 2024

HasiCorp

HCP US

10/05/2024

32.76

We expect the deal to be approved but we give a high probability to an extended review.

Genex Power

GNX AU

09/05/2024

0.265

We expect the takeover offer to succeed in case the Scheme is voted down.

Pioneer Natural Resources

PXD US

02/05/2024

269.62

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 3, 2024

Hipgnosis Songs Fund

SONG LN

02/05/2024

104.8

We believe that there is further upside potential if Concord decides to match the Blackstone bid.

Matterport

MTTR US

02/05/2024

4.6

We believe that an extended regulatory review is a possibility as MTTR is by far the largest player in 3-D tour software/equipment and CSGP’s biggest competitors are also customers of the target.

MorphoSys

MOR GR

29/04/2024

17.32

We don’t think Novartis can walk away from its deal with Morphosys.

Salcef Group

SCF IM

26/04/2024

25.9

Given the limited deal risk and short timeline, the deal spread appears somewhat wide.

Encore Wire

WIRE US

23/04/2024

283.09

Counterbid appears to be a wild card scenario. A lengthy deal review is highly likely.

Spirent Communications

SPT LN

19/04/2024

194

We believe that Viavi has a strong incentive to come back before the vote on May 1. If so, we believe that further escalation by Keysight is unlikely as they can expect lower levels of synergies and higher antitrust risk.

Shockwave Medical

SWAV US

18/04/2024

327.1

An extended review is likely in our view as SWAV and Abiomed (JNJ) products are frequently used in the same procedure and based on the Axonics, Nuvasive (US) and Olink (UK) investigations.

MorphoSys

MOR GR

12/04/2024

67.8

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 12, 2024

Altium

ALU AU

12/04/2024

65.59

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 12, 2024

Cerevel

CERE US

12/04/2024

41.85

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 12, 2024

ChampionX

CHX US

12/04/2024

37.59

The deal spread appears to be tight, given the potential antitrust obstacles and lengthy deal timeline.

Virgin Money

VMUK LN

05/04/2024

215.2

The deal spread appears to be driven by the expected Q4 deal close.

Endeavor Group Holdings

EDR US

05/04/2024

26.2

There might be upside to the parties’ 1Q2025 timing estimate in case planned divestitures eliminate the need for gaming regulatory approvals.

DS Smith

SMDS LN

04/04/2024

410.8

We see 10%-20% upside in a bidding war given that both MNDI and IP have room to improve their current proposal.

Alumina

AWC AU

27/03/2024

1.31

The low spread reflects the limited deal risk.

Equitrans

ETRN US

26/03/2024

11.75

The deal spread reflects the timing uncertainty around the HSR approval and the approval and launch of the Mountain Valley Pipeline by the FERC.

Fusion Pharmaceuticals

FUSN US

26/03/2024

21.18

The April announcements add a potential upside to the deal.

Spirent Communications

SPT LN

19/03/2024

176.4

The offer appears to be a bit opportunistic as Viavi had most likely been eyeing Spirent for years.

Kindred Group

KINDSDB SS

15/03/2024

122.95

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 15, 2024

JSR

4185 JP

15/03/2024

4315

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 15, 2024

Karuna Therapeutics

KRTX US

15/03/2024

329.83

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 15, 2024

Applus Services

APPS SM

15/03/2024

11.3

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 15, 2024

Juniper Networks

JNPR US

15/03/2024

36.22

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 15, 2024

DS Smith

SMDS LN

14/03/2024

336.1

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight considering the lengthy deal timeline and the downside around 300p SMDS LN.

Talgo

TLGO SM

13/03/2024

4.23

We believe that the Spanish government is likely to challenge the deal after a thorough review.

Sterling Check

STER US

11/03/2024

15.96

The timing of the deal is likely driven by the number of antitrust and FDI approvals being required.

Pioneer Natural Resources

PXD US

08/03/2024

243.52

Add to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 8, 2024

Sovos Brands

SOVO US

08/03/2024

22.95

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 8, 2024

Neogames

NGMS US

08/03/2024

28.84

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 8, 2024

McGrath

MGRC US

08/03/2024

122.56

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight despite the second request is likely to cause major delay in the deal timeline.

Vizio Holding

VZIO US

08/03/2024

11.025

While we don’t see serious regulatory issues, a second request cannot be ruled out in our view.

CSR

CSR US

04/03/2024

8.83

The deal spread appears to be tight, however a counter bid cannot be ruled out.

Catalent

CTLT US

28/02/2024

58.29

We expect lengthy deal reviews in multiple jurisdictions.

Discover Financial Services

DFS US

27/02/2024

120.71

We believe that the deal is likely to be challenged as reduces competition in the already concentrated and scrutinized credit card business.

Altium

ALU AU

26/02/2024

65.12

The deal spread appears to be driven by the expected closing in H2 and the large premium paid by Renesas.

Saras

SRS IM

21/02/2024

1.729

The deal spread appears to be tight. There is a chance of an increased offer in case the two-thirds required to delist is not achieved.

Newmark Property REIT

NPR AU

19/02/2024

1.35

We believe that the deal acceptance threshold will be met despite activist criticism.

Textainer Group Holdings

TGH US

16/02/2024

49.75

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 16, 2024

Adevinta

ADE NO

16/02/2024

114.6

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 16, 2024

Redrow

RDW LN

16/02/2024

668

Upside to the companies’ assumed deal timeline makes the spread attractive.

MorphoSys

MOR GR

14/02/2024

17.34

Pelabresib appears to be complementary to Novartis’ Jakavi in myelofibrosis.

Wincanton

WIN LN

12/02/2024

432

The deal spread appears to be attractive as we do not expect any regulatory issues to arise.

Haynes International

HAYN US

09/02/2024

60

The parties’ 3Q guidance appears to be realistic. We believe that there might be pushback from shareholders due to the low premium and a takeout multiple only slightly above where key peers are trading without a takeout premium.

NuStar Energy

NS US

09/02/2024

22.42

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however we note the likelihood of an extended US review and the cost of SUN short.

Tricon Residential

TCN US

05/02/2024

11.02

The proposed arrangement appears to be a low-premium offer when compared to peers and precedents. 

Karuna Therapeutics

KRTX US

02/02/2024

314.17

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February  2, 2024

Karuna Therapeutics

KRTX US

02/02/2024

314.17

We find the deal spread attractive, as we don’t expect a second request, however a re-filing is possible.

Ansys

ANSS US

31/01/2024

329.2

The deal spread reflects the antitrust-related and timing risks.

Axonics

AXNX US

29/01/2024

68.01

The deal spread appears to be attractive, given that BSX portfolio does not overlap with AXNX’s primary product, which drives the deal rationale.

Applus Services

APPS SM

26/01/2024

11.01

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January  26, 2024

Kindred Group

KINDSDB SS

24/01/2024

121.7

We would not take a position due to the long timeline. Major shifts in market fundamentals might influence shareholders’ willingness to tender into the offer at SEK130/share.

Intervest

INTO BB

19/01/2024

20.85

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 19, 2024

WestRock

WRK US

19/01/2024

40.33

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide.

Benefit One

2412 JP

18/01/2024

2141

We expect Pasona and the Benefit One board to accept Dai-ichi’s offer.

Southwestern Energy

SWN US

16/01/2024

7.01

We don’t find the current 1.1% spread attractive even if the deal does not receive a second request.

JSR

4185 JP

12/01/2024

4042

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 12, 2024

Juniper Networks

JNPR US

12/01/2024

37.75

The key risk is timing in our view, as antitrust concerns appear to be limited and parties have committed to make divestitures or litigate if necessary.

PGT Innovations

PGTI US

12/01/2024

41.36

PGTI is trading above terms. We see the room and incentive for Miter to improve the current offer for PGTI, a key high-end asset.

Smart Metering Systems

SMS LN

09/01/2024

940

We believe that an increased offer is likely, however downside is significant.

Shinko Electric Industries

6967 JT

08/01/2024

5495

We expect the deal to receive regulatory approvals in all jurisdictions.

Greenvolt Energias

GVOLT PL

03/01/2024

8.2

While the 1-day premium is not stellar, the offer price appears to be fair. Support from the top-6 shareholders makes us believe that the 90% threshold is likely to be met. The spread is not attractive in our view as the offer is likely to close in 3Q24.

Point Biopharma

PNT US

22/12/2023

12.48

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 22, 2023

Euronav

EURN BB

22/12/2023

16.09

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 22, 2023

Dechra

DPH LN

22/12/2023

3852

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 22, 2023

Textainer Group Holdings

TGH US

22/12/2023

49.19

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 22, 2023

US Steel

X US

22/12/2023

48.16

We believe that the deal is likely to close, however there might be delays to the antitrust and/or CFIUS reviews due to bipartisan political opposition

Santos

STO AU

21/12/2023

7.6

At this point there is still significant uncertainty whether a firm offer would get the support of Santos’ board.

Icosavax

ICVX US

20/12/2023

15.47

We find the value of the CVR moderately attractive.

Cerevel

CERE US

15/12/2023

41.1

Despite the overlaps in a number of therapeutic areas, the deal is likely to overcome regulatory obstacles.

Eagle Bulk

EGLE US

15/12/2023

51.77

We expect the deal to close in May 2024

Hawaiian Holdings

HA US

11/12/2023

13.94

The deal appears to be less problematic compared to SAVE/JBLU and structural divestitures appear to be feasible. Finding a suitable buyer might be difficult.

OreCorp

ORE AU

11/12/2023

0.5

We are skeptical that a further increase in the offer price would make Perseus support the Scheme.

ImmunoGen

IMGN US

07/12/2023

29.32

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide driven by the substantial downside, lack of product-related MAE carve out, potential delay in the deal timeline and some upcoming catalysts even in the coming months. One may consider taking a position long IMGN going into the expiry of the HSR waiting period.

Spirit Airlines

SAVE US

04/12/2023

14.29

We still believe that the DOJ has the upper hand as the acquisition will eliminate ULCC competition in most routes SAVE services today and possible harms appear to outweigh deal benefits.

Adevinta

ADE NO

01/12/2023

111.5

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 1, 2023

Point Biopharma

PNT US

01/12/2023

13.8

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 1, 2023

Adevinta

ADE NO

01/12/2023

111.8

The current spread, the downside around NOK82-86 and an early 2Q 2024 deal close implies a ~3%-4% deal breaking probability. The upside to the deal timeline makes the current spread attractive.

Marel

MAREL NA

01/12/2023

2.85

N/A

Capri Holdings

CPRI US

27/11/2023

48.21

We would not take a position due to the long timeline and the significant downside. Despite their huge market share, we don’t believe that the combination of the three leading affordable handbag brands would significantly alter industry dynamics.

Dechra

DPH LN

24/11/2023

3822

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 24, 2023

Gresham House

GHE LN

24/11/2023

1102.5

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 24, 2023

Point Biopharma

PNT US

24/11/2023

13.59

In case of positive results from the Splash trial, we expect PNT shares to trade in the high teens. 12.50 represents a floor price for a position long PNT.

Halfords Group

HFD LN

24/11/2023

230

In our view the probability of a firm deal is low at the current stage. 

Intervest

INTO BB

17/11/2023

20.5

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 17, 2023

Bluegreen Vacations

BVH US

17/11/2023

73.97

We expect minimal antitrust risks due to intense competition in the timeshare market, expecting deal closure around March/April 2024. 

Amedisys

AMED US

17/11/2023

92.95

It appears that the divestiture cap will be sufficient to meet divestiture requirements.

Six Flags

SIX US

13/11/2023

23.2

We expect the deal to pass the shareholder vote despite the opposing activist.

Healthia

HLA AU

10/11/2023

1.79

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2023

ESI Group

ESI FP

10/11/2023

154

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2023

Capri

CPRI US

10/11/2023

47.11

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2023

Lithium Power International

LPI AU

10/11/2023

0.525

We expect FIRB approval to be granted as LPI is left with no major Australian assets.  Chilean regulatory issues are unlikely, given Codelco’s position as a state-owned company is in line with the country’s policy.

Physicians Realty Trust

DOC US

07/11/2023

11.6

The deal appears to favour PEAK, but we believe that it is likely to be approved by both sets of shareholders.

Opdenergy Holdings

OPDE SM

03/11/2023

5.79

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 3, 2023

Intervest

INTO BB

03/11/2023

20.15

We believe that the deal will get a Phase 1 approval due to TPG’s limited exposure to the Belgian Real Estate market.

Olink Holding

OLK US

31/10/2023

24.7

A second request is likely in our view, due to TMO’s size and existing exposure to proteomics.

Textainer Group Holdings

TGH US

31/10/2023

49.1

Based on the TRTN/Brookfield deal, we don’t see regulatory hurdles. We see low likelihood of a higher offer.

Sovos Brands

SOVO US

27/10/2023

21.72

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 27, 2023

Euronav

EURN BB

27/10/2023

16.81

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 27, 2023

ESI Group

ESI FP

27/10/2023

149.5

We expect the mandatory offer to settle in the second half of 1Q2024.

Hess

HES US

27/10/2023

153.18

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide unless two dividend payments will occur.

Wyndham

WH US

25/10/2023

74.15

We see limited room for CHH to improve its offer due to leverage and EPS accretion constraints. A hostile offer is unlikely due to WH’s takeover defenses.

Euronav

EURN BB

20/10/2023

17.8

We recommend a long position on EURN due to limited deal-related risks.

SP Plus

SP US

17/10/2023

50.81

We note the extended timeline estimate, but we do not expect an HSR second request.

Nextgen

NXGN US

13/10/2023

23.82

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 13, 2023

Majorel

MAJ NA

13/10/2023

29.8

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 13, 2023

Pioneer Natural Resources

PXD US

13/10/2023

240.36

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. We see an HSR second request as a wild card scenario.

Mirati Therapeutics

MRTX US

12/10/2023

57.02

The deal spread appears to be tight, considering that product-related issues are not carved out of MAE and the long timeline to a possible CVR payout.

Point Biopharma Global

PNT US

10/10/2023

12.375

The deal spread is tight. While product related events are carved out of MAE, topline results from PNT2002's Phase III SPLASH trial might arrive before deal close.

Neogames

NGMS US

06/10/2023

27.15

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 6, 2023

Gresham House

GHE LN

06/10/2023

1070

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 6, 2023

Adevinta

ADE NO

06/10/2023

108.3

Assuming a 95% probability of a deal at NOK 115 and a post-announcement spread of ~2% we see further ~3% upside that can be collected. 

Consolidated Uranium

CUR CN

05/10/2023

1.82

We expect regulatory approvals to be granted and CFIUS to drive the deal timeline. Deal rationale seems to be there, however the premium has disappeared since Sept 27.

Desktop Metal

DM US

29/09/2023

1.46

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 29, 2023

Splunk

SPLK US

29/09/2023

146.51

The deal spread reflects the lengthy deal timeline. Ultimately, we see the deal being approved without major remedies.

Origin Energy

ORG AU

29/09/2023

8.9

An increased the offer price might be necessary to secure the approval of shareholders.

PGS

PGS NO

26/09/2023

9.16

The deal spread appears to be tight given the parties have yet to conduct due diligence and considering the long timeline and possible regulatory hiccups.

Hamburger Hafen und Logistik

HHFA GR

21/09/2023

16.74

We assign low probability to a counterbid as no formal third-party approach has been made. The German FDI approval might extend the timeline by several months, in our view.

WestRock

WRK US

20/09/2023

35.77

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Timing and shareholder vote-related risks are reflected in the current spread.

Healthia

HLA AU

15/09/2023

1.745

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 15, 2023

NextGen Healthcare

NXGN US

15/09/2023

23.58

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 15, 2023

Desktop Metal

DM US

15/09/2023

1.51

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 15, 2023

Applus Services

APPS SM

15/09/2023

9.91

We believe that there is a high likelihood the offers will be further increased given the upside to the current valuation.

NextGen Healthcare

NXGN US

13/09/2023

23.62

Deal risk is limited. Despite the high premium one might consider going long NXGN on a low-probability counterbid.

Healthia

HLA AU

13/09/2023

1.74

The deal spread appears to be attractive, however the downside is significant.

Horizon Therapeutics

HZNP US

08/09/2023

115.42

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 8, 2023

Ergomed

ERGO LN

08/09/2023

1,352

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight considering the low probability of a counterbid.

Chindata

CD US

07/09/2023

8.34

We note that a takeover by CMC would most likely require further regulatory approvals and take longer than the Bain transaction.

The Necessity Retail REIT

RTL US

06/09/2023

6.97

The deal might break on the bidder vote as independent proxy advisers urged GNL holders to vote against the deal. The current deal spread offers a favorable risk/reward for a position short RTL and long GNL betting on that outcome.

Abcam

ABCM US

05/09/2023

22.83

The deal price appears to be fair. We attach low probability to an increased offer.

Desktop Metal

DM US

05/09/2023

1.78

The DM/SSYS deal spread appears to be somewhat tight. For an SSYS/DDD deal we assign a low probability.

Capri

CPRI US

01/09/2023

52.76

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 1, 2023

Eneti

NETI US

01/09/2023

10.84

The key risk is the CMA approval in our view. While the deal spread appears to be wide, the substantial downside makes us cautious.

Estia Health

EHE AU

30/08/2023

3.02

As the SID is now signed and recommended by the Estia board we expect the deal to close on schedule in December this year.

Costa Group Holdings

CGC AU

25/08/2023

2.96

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 25, 2023

Sculptor Capital

SCU US

25/08/2023

11.48

The upside in a high probability counterbid appears to compensate for the downside at the current offer price.

United States Steel

X US

22/08/2023

31.93

An X/CLF deal would face serious antitrust risk in our view. Other suitors could run into other issues including union opposition, national security concerns, financing.

Gresham House

GHE LN

21/08/2023

1057.5

The deal spread appears to be driven by the potential downside and the large number of regulatory approvals required.

Capri Holdings

CPRI US

18/08/2023

51.94

We believe there is a high likelihood of an extended antitrust review. However, one might speculate on a swift HSR approval as the deal spread appears to be wide

ESI Group

ESI FP

15/08/2023

148

Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 15, 2023

Triton International

TRTN US

15/08/2023

83.15

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas August 15, 2023

Kahoot

KAHOT NO

15/08/2023

34.17

While the one-day premium appears to be low, we expect the acceptance condition / delisting threshold to be met given the premium over the unaffected share price.

Sovos Brands

SOVO US

14/08/2023

22.55

The deal spread appears to be tight, given the likelihood of a second request.

Dice Therapeutics

DICE US

11/08/2023

47.55

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 11, 2023

Pacific Current

PAC AU

11/08/2023

10.77

We believe that the upside will driven by GQG’s proposal as it will have to post an appealing offer for the current co-operating bidders who can block the deal.

New Relic

NEWR US

10/08/2023

83.89

We see no major antitrust risk, but an extended review cannot be ruled out.

Amedisys

AMED US

04/08/2023

91.86

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 4, 2023

Chinook Therapeutics

KDNY US

04/08/2023

40.28

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 4, 2023

Reata Pharmaceuticals

RETA US

04/08/2023

167.16

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide despite the substantial downside.

Dechra Pharmaceuticals

DPH LN

03/08/2023

3748

We don’t expect extended regulatory reviews and expect the deal to close late this year

Heritage-Crystal Clean

HCCI US

02/08/2023

46.38

While HCCI is currently trading through the bid price, we attach low probability

Costa Group Holdings

CGC AU

28/07/2023

3.31

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 28, 2023

Chinook Therapeutics

KDNY US

28/07/2023

39.08

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 28, 2023

Denbury

DEN US

25/07/2023

86.53

We believe the current deal spread is too tight considering the risks around the transaction.

TransAlta Renewables

RNW CN

24/07/2023

13.42

The key question in our view is whether RNW shareholders will feel compensated by the deal premium for the significant dividend dilution of their shares.

Ordina

ORDI NA

21/07/2023

5.71

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 21, 2023

Opdenergy Holdings

OPDE SM

21/07/2023

5.73

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 21, 2023

JSR

4185 JP

14/07/2023

4080

The deal spread appears to be explained by fears of a hostile Chinese view of the offer.

Quotient Technology

QOUT US

13/07/2023

3.85

While the companies are competitors, regulatory risk is moderate in our view. Based on that, we would go long QUOT into the expiry of the HSR waiting period.

Costa Group Holdings

CGC AU

12/07/2023

3.28

We see high likelihood of a firm deal as the board indicated its willingness to recommend a transaction at the offered price and the bidder is familiar with CGC as it owned of the company before its 2015 IPO.

United Malt Group

UMG AU

10/07/2023

4.79

The deal spread appears to be driven by current fears of regulatory issues.

American Equity Investment

AEL US

06/07/2023

52.7

The key risk is the timing of the insurance regulatory approvals. Given the long timeline, the current deal spread is unattractive.

Amedisys

AMED US

05/07/2023

91.35

We see some upside to the lengthy deal timeline if asset divestitures do not require upfront buyers and given the FTC know-how based on recent precedents.

ESI Group

ESI FP

04/07/2023

148

The mandatory offer is expected to commence in 4Q2023.

Syneos Health

SYNH US

30/06/2023

42.14

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023

Iveric Bio

ISEE US

30/06/2023

39.34

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023

Dice Therapeutics

DICE US

30/06/2023

46.46

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023

Covestro

1COV GR

30/06/2023

47.47

While ADNOC might not return with an improved bid, Covestro could attract takeover interest from other parties.

Uponor

UPONOR FH

29/06/2023

28.62

While we don’t expect major regulatory issues, the deal spread appears to be too tight.

Dice Therapeutics

DICE US

28/06/2023

46.7

The short timeline and the limited deal risk make us believe that the deal spread is wide.

NexTier Oilfield Solutions

NEX US

26/06/2023

8.4

Overall, we believe regulators will sign-off the deal, but a second request cannot be ruled out.

SoftwareONE

SWON SW

21/06/2023

17.69

Based on industry peer multiples and our LBO model we believe that there would be room for an entry of a counter bidder at a higher offer price if Bain fails to make an increased bid.

Stratasys

SSYS US

20/06/2023

15.47

At the current stage, we see 90% probability to a DM/SSYS deal close and a 10% probability to a successful NNDM partial tender offer. DDD is not in the mix in our view with its current proposal

Opdenergy Holdings

OPDE SM

16/06/2023

5.67

Deal risk is limited. We believe the current deal spread is unattractive given the lengthy timeline.

Chinook Therapeutics

KDNY US

16/06/2023

37.63

We believe that there is a decent chance of a second request. Due to the mitigating factors (approved treatments, large number of competing pipeline assets) however, one might consider going long KDNY into the expiry of the HSR waiting period betting on a swifter approval.

Telenet Group

TNET BB

09/06/2023

20.64

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 9, 2023

Syneos Health

SYNH US

09/06/2023

41.66

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 9, 2023

VectivBio Holding

VECT US

07/06/2023

16.6

One might consider going long VECT into the tender offer period as deal risks seem limited. However, IRWD might also attract third party interest.

PDC Energy

PDCE US

06/06/2023

71.36

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight given the potentially lengthy US review.

Uponor

UPONOR FH

06/06/2023

27.44

We believe that there might be a higher offer from Aliaxis or third parties for Uponor. We see upside to the high-twenties.

Dechra Pharma

DPH LN

02/06/2023

3632

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023

Heska Corp

HSKA US

02/06/2023

119.84

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023

Bellus Health

BLU CN

02/06/2023

19.65

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023

Horizon Therapeutics

HZNP US

31/05/2023

99.88

Despite the long court process, the deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus we continue to recommend a position long HZNP.

Neogames

NGMS US

30/05/2023

27.25

The deal is expected to close in 2024

Heska Corp

HSKA US

26/05/2023

115.55

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 26, 2023

Syneos Health

SYNH US

19/05/2023

41.52

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide despite the limited deal risk.

Allkem

AKE AU

19/05/2023

25.51

N/A

Magellan Midstream Partners

MMP US

19/05/2023

62.77

The deal spread is tight considering the tax implications occurring from the transaction.

Amedisys

AMED US

15/05/2023

75.95

We see a high probability of a deal break. We would be long OPCH without a hedge on the target side.

Rothschild & Co

ROTH FP

12/05/2023

47.35

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Canaccord Genuity

CF CN

12/05/2023

9.42

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Majorel

MAJ NA

12/05/2023

28.95

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Triton International

TRTN US

12/05/2023

82.83

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Iveric Bio

ISEE US

12/05/2023

37.6

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Arconic

ARNC US

12/05/2023

29.06

We expect regulatory approvals to be granted and that the deal timeline will be driven by the SAMR review.

Blackmores

BKL AU

12/05/2023

94.5

The deal spread appears to be tight, especially considering the special dividend payable before deal close.

Heska Corp

HSKA US

12/05/2023

117

The deal spread is tight considering the antitrust risk, in our view. One might speculate a short HSKA on an HSR second request.

Software AG

SOWG GR

08/05/2023

33

Bain appears to face an uphill battle to trump Silver Lake’s offer or team up with its rival.

Bellus Health

BLU CN

05/05/2023

19.37

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 5, 2023

Teck Resources

TECK/B CN

05/05/2023

57.99

We assign low probability to a firm deal at the current stage given Teck’s and Canada’s opposition.

Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest).  As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level.