|
Stock |
Ticker |
Date Published |
Market Price on Publication Date |
Recommendation |
|
Kadmon |
KDMN US |
17/09/2021 |
8.8 |
Given that Belumonsudil study data is expected before deal close and any issues around the product are not carved out of MAE and the risk of a longer timeline (second request or standard form letter form the FTC), we would not recommend any position at this stage. |
|
Oil Search |
OSH AU |
16/09/2021 |
3.9 |
We believe the key risk is the possible regulatory scrutiny in Papua New Guinea. Santos and Oil Search will likely have to make serious commitments to PNG. |
|
Afterpay |
APT AU |
15/09/2021 |
123.62 |
Added to best ideas list in APAC Best Ideas September 15, 2021 |
|
Neles |
NELES FH |
15/09/2021 |
12.545 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas September 15, 2021 |
|
Siltronic |
WAF1 GY |
15/09/2021 |
138 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas September 15, 2021 |
|
Cerved |
CERV IM |
10/09/2021 |
10.2 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 10, 2021 |
|
Hill-Rom |
HRC US |
10/09/2021 |
151,68 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, however we note that the China review might take a while. A refiling for HSR approval cannot be ruled out; however a second request has a very limited chance in our view. |
|
Swedish Orphan Biovitrum |
SOBI SS |
10/09/2021 |
242,1 |
Support from the board and anchor shareholders, the decent premium and recent regulatory setbacks decrease the likelihood of an upside scenario. However given the high acceptance condition, the lack of alternative transaction structures to get to 100% and comments from AP4 , a position long SOBI slightly above the offer price might be attractive in our view. |
|
Ferro Corp |
FOE US |
08/09/2021 |
21.05 |
We believe regulators will approve the deal after a thorough review with a high possibility of remedies in some niche segments. |
|
Enable Midstream Partners |
ENBL US |
03/09/2021 |
8.16 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021 |
|
Forterra |
FRTA US |
03/09/2021 |
23.69 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021 |
|
Shaw Communications |
SJR/B CN |
03/09/2021 |
37.25 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021 |
|
Akka Technologies |
AKA FP |
03/09/2021 |
47.2 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 3, 2021 |
|
Translate Bio |
TBIO US |
03/09/2021 |
37.65 |
We don’t expect a second request, however the deal spread appears to be too tight at this point for a long TBIO. One might, however bet on an unlikely second request with a position short in the target going into the expiry of the HSR waiting period. |
|
Five9 |
FIVN US |
03/09/2021 |
167.5 |
At current stage we recommend a position long FIVN going into the shareholder vote, given the limited downside and some optionality for an improved offer. |
|
Kansas City Southern |
KSU US |
01/09/2021 |
280.67 |
A long position KSU appears to be a safe bet until at least September 12 (the expiry of CP’s offer), at the current 2.7% spread. |
|
Trillium Therapeutics |
TRIL CN |
31/08/2021 |
17.29 |
We see limited risk regarding antitrust scrutiny despite Pfizer’s overlapping development asset. Based on that, we would go long TRIL. |
|
Maxim |
MXIM US |
27/08/2021 |
103.14 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 27, 2021 |
|
Soliton |
SOLY US |
27/08/2021 |
20.72 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 27, 2021 |
|
Soliton |
SOLY US |
27/08/2021 |
20.72 |
We estimate limited downside of around $19.50 and a deal close in early 2022. The implied deal closing probability is approximately 40%. Based on that, we believe that the current spread of 8.3% is somewhat wide thus, we recommend a SOLY long. |
|
Hella |
HLE GR |
23/08/2021 |
60.84 |
We believe there is no upside to the deal terms as there is no minimum acceptance and counterbid is unlikely. Given the complementary nature of the product portfolios, we don’t see antitrust issues. |
|
Sportsman's Warehouse |
SPWH US |
20/08/2021 |
17.65 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 20, 2021 |
|
Ultra Electronics |
ULE LN |
20/08/2021 |
3,372 |
Parties’ 1Q deal close expectation might be optimistic though as the Ultra deal might get more scrutiny compared to earlier acquisitions of UK defense companies |
|
Sanderson Farms |
SAFM US |
16/08/2021 |
195.25 |
The deal spread is not attractive in our view given the long regulatory timeline. |
|
Afterpay |
APT AU |
13/08/2021 |
132.01 |
We believe that shareholders will vote in favour of the merger as the deal rationale to merge appears to be strong. |
|
Intersect Ent |
XENT US |
10/08/2021 |
27.83 |
We don’t see serious regulatory risks with regard to the transaction. |
|
Inter Pipeline |
IPL CN |
06/08/2021 |
19.96 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 6, 2021 |
|
Meggitt |
MGGT LN |
06/08/2021 |
7.25 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, but the lengthy deal review makes us reluctant to enter a position long MGGT at this point. |
|
Akka Technologies |
AKA FP |
29/07/2021 |
47.02 |
We expect no extended antitrust reviews and a deal timeline of around 10 months. |
|
Veoneer |
VNE US |
27/07/2021 |
31.36 |
We attach low probability to a counter bid given VNE said it had been in discussion with other parties before the agreement with MGA. |
|
PPD |
PPD US |
23/07/2021 |
46.16 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 23, 2021 |
|
Slack Technologies |
WORK US |
23/07/2021 |
45.2 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 23, 2021 |
|
Sumo Group |
SUMO LN |
23/07/2021 |
4.99 |
We believe the key risk is the CFIUS approval. Regulatory scrutiny might emerge from the handling of American users’ data, however if needed, the US business can be divested in order to close the deal. |
|
Five9 |
FIVN US |
22/07/2021 |
189.80 |
The current spread does not compensate for the lengthy deal timeline. |
|
Avast |
AVST LN |
20/07/2021 |
598.00 |
As per our valuation, a deal appears to be feasible even at around GBP6.50 |
|
Stamps.com |
STMP US |
16/07/2021 |
5,908 |
We would recommend a position long going into the go-shop period as a cheap bet on a counterbid. Based on our LBO valuation, we see room for a higher offer. |
|
Willis Towers Watson |
WLTW US |
15/07/2021 |
221.91 |
Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas July 15, 2021 |
|
Cerved |
CERV IM |
15/07/2021 |
9.9 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas July 15, 2021 |
|
Alexion |
ALXN US |
15/07/2021 |
180.51 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro/Americas Best Ideas July 15, 2021 |
|
Sydney Airport |
SYD AU |
15/07/2021 |
7.81 |
Given that standpoints on valuation appear to be far away and considering the substantial downside we do not recommend taking a position long SYD at current stage. |
|
Neles |
NELES FH |
12/07/2021 |
13.49 |
We believe there is no upside to the deal terms. Given Valmet’s ~30% stake in Neles, counterbid is very unlikely. |
|
WM Morrison |
MRW LN |
09/07/2021 |
266 |
We see limited upside for counterbidders up to 260p-270p. Based on that we do not recommend long MRW above 250p |
|
Grandvision |
GVNV NA |
02/07/2021 |
28.25 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 2, 2021 |
|
UDG Healthcare |
UDG LN |
02/07/2021 |
1068 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 2, 2021 |
|
QAD |
QADA |
02/07/2021 |
86.44 |
We believe shareholders will vote in favour of the merger given the fair offer. A counter bid is unlikely as the Lopker family has a huge influence on the company and Pamela Lopker will retain a significant ownership interest after the deal and will continue to serve on the QAD Board. |
|
Kindred Biosciences |
KIN US |
30/06/2021 |
9.16 |
We expect the deal to close in September 2021. An extended review appears to be unlikely. |
|
Lydall |
LDL US |
29/06/2021 |
60.9 |
We believe an extended antitrust review is unlikely. Other than a few overlaps, the product portfolios can be seen complementary, in our view. |
|
Grandvision |
GVNV NA |
25/06/2021 |
24.85 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 25, 2021 |
|
WM Morrison |
MRW LN |
25/06/2021 |
234 |
We believe that probability of a firm deal and potential upside compensates the downside risk. |
|
Raven Industries |
RAVN US |
25/06/2021 |
57.65 |
The deal spread does not appear to be attractive given the long deal timeline and possible vertical issues with the merger. Also, as per the merger call there was a competitive sale process before deal announcement. |
|
Solarpack SA |
SPK SM |
21/06/2021 |
26.2 |
The deal spread is tight. Given EQT can waive the 75%+1 minimum acceptance and has 50%+1 by the irrevocable undertakings, we see no upside to the deal terms. |
|
Willis Towers Watson |
WLTW US |
18/06/2021 |
225.2 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 18, 2021 |
|
Deutsche Wohnen |
DWNI GY |
18/06/2021 |
51.48 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 18, 2021 |
|
Cloudera |
CLDR US |
18/06/2021 |
15.78 |
The deal spread and an improved bid opportunity favor a position long CLDR. |
|
Altium |
ALU AU |
18/06/2021 |
34.71 |
Autodesk’s proposal shows their intention to expand their manufacturing software segment, which is highly competitive. Altium perfectly fits in Autodesk’s portfolio. |
|
Magnachip Semiconductor |
MX US |
17/06/2021 |
24.07 |
We believe that the CFIUS interim order and a possible block might offer Korea the chance to avoid having to make a decision on this delicate deal. |
|
UDG Healthcare |
UDG LN |
15/06/2021 |
1044 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas June 15, 2021 |
|
Deutsche Wohnen |
DWNI GY |
15/06/2021 |
51.8 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas June 15, 2021 |
|
Great Canadian Gaming |
GC CN |
11/06/2021 |
44.65 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 11, 2021 |
|
Spire Healthcare |
SPI LN |
09/06/2021 |
2.45 |
Based on deal valuation and Mediclinic’s support (as long as there is no counter bid more than 10% higher than the current one) we believe that the deal will go through as it is. |
|
Welbilt Update |
WBT US |
09/06/2021 |
24.34 |
We would not take a position as WBT is already trading above Ali’s proposal and a counterbid from MIDD might be limited to around $24-$26. |
|
Grandvision |
GVNV NA |
04/06/2021 |
27.25 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 4, 2021 |
|
Inter Pipeline |
IPL CN |
04/06/2021 |
20.27 |
Brookfield’s proposal appears to be superior at this moment as it is worth more, has a significant cash component and could close imminently. We don’t expect that this is Pembina’s best offer. They probably expected Brookfield to improve their bid, so we see at least one more improvement from Pembina. |
|
UDG Healthcare |
UDG LN |
03/06/2021 |
1058 |
We believe that the strong deal rationale favors an improved offer, thus we would recommend a position long UDG. |
|
Recticel |
REC BB |
02/06/2021 |
14.66 |
We believe Greiner needs to improve its bid to reach the 50%+1 threshold. Antitrust concerns might arise around the combined market share in the EU. Therefore, a lengthy regulatory review might not be ruled out. |
|
Alexion |
ALXN US |
28/05/2021 |
176.55 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 28, 2021 |
|
Deutsche Wohnen |
DWNI GY |
28/05/2021 |
52.24 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 28, 2021 |
|
IHS Markit |
INFO US |
28/05/2021 |
105.31 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 28, 2021 |
|
Deutsche Wohnen |
DWNI GY |
28/05/2021 |
52.26 |
The deal spread appears to be favorable to take a position long DWNI. |
|
Crown Resorts |
CWN AU |
28/05/2021 |
12.94 |
We would not take a position in CWN at this time due to its valuation and the ongoing regulatory processes. |
|
Core-Mark |
CORE US |
26/05/2021 |
45.11 |
We don’t see nationwide issues and the divestiture cap is sizeable enough to tackle local issues if they arise. |
|
Monmouth Real Estate |
MNR US |
25/05/2021 |
19 |
We believe shareholders will approve the deal if no superior offer emerges. Blackwells failed to make an improved offer in recent months and the board explored strategic alternatives, which appears to limit upside potential. |
|
Welbilt |
WBT US |
25/05/2021 |
19.59 |
We would not take a position at this time given the long deal timeline and the risk of a counter bid for either party before the shareholder votes. |
|
Klovern |
KLOVB SS |
21/05/2021 |
16.37 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 1, 2021 |
|
Enable Midstream Partners |
ENBL US |
19/05/2021 |
8.54 |
We don’t expect significant divestitures to be required by regulators. We expect the deal to close in 4Q2021. |
|
PRA Health |
PRAH US |
17/05/2021 |
171.9 |
Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas May 17, 2021 |
|
Meggitt |
MGGT LN |
14/05/2021 |
480.4 |
We would not take a position as there has not been any official announcement about the approach. However, if the deal materializes, we believe regulatory risk is manageable. |
|
KPN NV |
KPN NA |
13/05/2021 |
2.781 |
It appears that price is not the only concern and given the lack of willingness to sell both from KPN board/management and the Dutch government the probability of a firm deal is low. We would not recommend a position long KPN above its fair value. |
|
IHH Healthcare |
IHH MK |
13/05/2021 |
5.45 |
N/A |
|
At Home Group |
HOME US |
11/05/2021 |
36.3 |
We would not go long HOME as we see little upside based on our LBO calculations. |
|
Tilt Renewables |
TLT NZ |
07/05/2021 |
8 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 7, 2021 |
|
Equiniti Group |
EQN LN |
06/05/2021 |
1.74 |
We believe there is a good chance for a firm deal. Based on our LBO model we see upside to the deal price. |
|
Intouch Holdings |
INTUCH TB |
04/05/2021 |
63.75 |
We would not take a position at this point as we see limited upside potential |
|
Cerved |
CERV IM |
04/05/2021 |
9.7 |
We recommend a position long CERV close to the ION offer price as cheap option for a bump to the offer. |
|
Willis Towers Watson |
WLTW US |
30/04/2021 |
258.86 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 30, 2021 |
|
Bingo |
BIN AU |
30/04/2021 |
3.41 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 30, 2021 |
|
Proofpoint |
PPFT US |
30/04/2021 |
172.12 |
We assign low probability to a counter bid in the go-shop period given the deal’s valuation and PFPT’s size. |
|
PPD |
PPD US |
28/04/2021 |
46.29 |
We believe an extended antitrust review is unlikely, the indicated fourth quarter deal close seems realistic |
|
Kansas City Southern |
KSU US |
27/04/2021 |
300 |
We recommend a position long KSU below 307 |
|
Galaxy Resources |
GXY AU |
26/04/2021 |
3.86 |
A counter bid can’t be ruled out as demand for lithium is expected to increase and based on EV to Measured and Indicated Resources (Mt, LCE), the merged entity appears to be undervalued compared to listed peers. We see limited downside on a position long deal spread in case no counter bid materializes. |
|
Knoll |
KNL US |
23/04/2021 |
23.76 |
We believe that limited deal risk favors a position long on the deal spread. |
|
Gamesys Group |
GYS LN |
20/04/2021 |
19.27 |
We believe shareholders will support the transaction in the absence of counterbid. However, we believe there is room for a superior offer. |
|
Toshiba |
6502 JP |
19/04/2021 |
4400 |
The high percentage of activist shareholders, rumored interest from several parties (including funds backed by the Japanese government) make a position long Toshiba at these levels attractive in our view. Incoming offers and shareholder pressure might make management explore alternatives. |
|
Nuance Communications |
NUAN US |
19/04/2021 |
52.24 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus one may consider a position long NUAN. |
|
GW Pharma |
GWPH US |
15/04/2021 |
218.81 |
Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas April 15, 2021 |
|
Orange Belgium |
OBEL BB |
15/04/2021 |
22.05 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas April 15, 2021 |
|
Suez |
SEV FP |
14/04/2021 |
19.9 |
The deal spread does not appear to be attractive due to a potentially lengthy regulatory review in certain jurisdictions. |
|
Euskaltel |
EKT SM |
13/04/2021 |
11.1 |
We don’t expect an increased offer or a counter bid. |
|
Willis Towers Watson |
WLTW US |
12/04/2021 |
240.0 |
Although the deal faces several headwinds, downside in a deal break appears to be limited around 225/WLTW. |
|
Magnachip Semiconductor |
MX US |
08/04/2021 |
26.4 |
The key risk appears to be Korea as OLED technology is designated as national core technology. It appears that MX has limited exposure to the US (sales, activities, IP), therefore a CFIUS block appears to be unlikely. |
|
Cardtronics |
CATM US |
01/04/2021 |
38.9 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 1, 2021 |
|
Klövern |
KLOVB SS |
01/04/2021 |
15.4 |
The deal spread offers a favorable entry point with an option on an improved offer. |
|
The Hartford |
HIG US |
31/03/2021 |
67.2 |
We anticipate significant upside, given that several potential bidders are rumored to be interested on the heels of Chubb’s $65 per share offer. Based on Chubb’s recent comments, they seem to be committed to raise the bid. In addition, Hartford seems to be a desirable target for players looking to strengthen their presence in the P&C space. HIG currently trades in-line with peers. With limited downside risk, we recommend going long HIG. |
|
Fly Leasing |
FLY US |
30/03/2021 |
16.9 |
The spread is tight due to limited deal risks. It appears that the company has reviewed its options before agreeing to the deal with Carlyle, therefore a counter bid seems to be a long shot. Shareholder push for a higher price appears to be unlikely in our view |
|
Tilt Renewables |
TLT NZ |
26/03/2021 |
7.6 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 26, 2021 |
|
Maxim |
MXIM US |
26/03/2021 |
93.1 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 26, 2021 |
|
Kansas City Southern |
KSU US |
26/03/2021 |
254.0 |
At current stage the market assumes the approval of the voting trust by STB and no issues with CFIUS, Mexico. We would assume a 1%-2% deal spread post voting trust approval. In the unlikely case of the STB not approving the voting trust, the deal would collapse with substantial downside (parties might agree to amend the DMA to wait for STB approval in that case). Therefore, we would consider a position short on the deal spread going into the trust approval expected in April/May. |
|
S Immo |
SPI AV |
24/03/2021 |
19.7 |
The offer will most likely be low for SPI shareholders and a mandatory offer is unlikely in our view. With improving SPI standalone prospects, on a riskreward basis, we would go long SPI. |
|
Tilt Renewables |
TLT NZ |
22/03/2021 |
7.6 |
We believe that the deal spread is attractive assuming a 5-month deal timeline. Regulatory approvals should be granted as New Zealand assets will be acquired by a New Zealand and Australian assets will go to Australian buyers. |
|
Perspecta |
PRSP US |
19/03/2021 |
29.1 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 19, 2021 |
|
Shaw Communications |
SJR/B CN |
19/03/2021 |
34.6 |
The deal has significant regulatory risk, however we believe that there are a number of factors that increase the likelihood of approval. |
|
Extended Stay |
STAY US |
19/03/2021 |
19.3 |
The deal spread of 0.9% appears to be somewhat tight but a cheap option on a price increase. Given that downside and deal risk is limited we would go long STAY on a potential price increase |
|
Orange Belgium |
OBEL BB |
17/03/2021 |
22.9 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas March 17, 2021 |
|
RSA Insurance Group |
RSA LN |
17/03/2021 |
680.6 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas March 17, 2021 |
|
Seacor Holdings |
CKH US |
12/03/2021 |
41.3 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 12, 2021 |
|
Bingo |
BIN AU |
12/03/2021 |
3.3 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 12, 2021 |
|
Norwegian Finans Holding |
NOFI NO |
12/03/2021 |
101.3 |
In our view the likelihood of Nordax improving the offer is high. Improved offer will be driven by potential synergies. However, we don’t expect a significant increase. |
|
Inter Pipeline |
IPL CN |
12/03/2021 |
18.3 |
We believe Brookfield needs to improve its offer to secure the 66 2⁄3 shareholder support. |
|
Luminex |
LMNX US |
11/03/2021 |
30.5 |
We believe that the probability of a firm deal announcement is relatively high. That makes us recommend long LMNX on a favorable risk/reward (substantial upside and limited downside). |
|
Athene |
ATH US |
09/03/2021 |
51.3 |
The deal spread does not appear to be attractive given the long deal timeline. |
|
PRA Health |
PRAH US |
05/03/2021 |
146.4 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021 |
|
Perspecta |
PRSP US |
05/03/2021 |
28.8 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021 |
|
Forterra |
FRTA US |
05/03/2021 |
23.6 |
Overall, we believe the deal will be approved by regulators with divestitures |
|
Tribune Publishing |
TPCO US |
05/03/2021 |
17.0 |
The deal spread appears to be unattractive on a risk reward basis. The deal could break, should major shareholder oppose it, and the downside risk is notable. Alternatively, the events can culminate into a bidding war between the two key shareholders. |
|
PRA Health |
PRAH US |
04/03/2021 |
144.8 |
The deal spread of 4.9% appears to be too wide therefore we recommend a position long PRAH and short ICLR. |
|
Glu Mobile |
GLUU US |
26/02/2021 |
12.5 |
The low risk profile of the transaction is reflected in the lack of deal spread. We would hold our position as we believe there is room for potential counter bids and the downside risk is moderate. |
|
Coherent Inc. |
COHR US |
25/02/2021 |
247.6 |
As COHR is trading only slightly above the competing offers we believe that risk/reward favors a COHR long. In our view the most likely winner seems to be MKSI, thus we would hedge our position with MKSI short in a 2 to 1 ratio (COHR/MKSI). |
|
Orange Belgium |
OBEL BB |
24/02/2021 |
23.3 |
Near-term changes / opportunities on the Belgian market and the favorable current valuation of OBEL might make Orange want to push through the deal now. The value upside from the tower portfolio increases the room for Orange to raise its offer. |
|
Asaleo Care |
AHY AU |
23/02/2021 |
1.4 |
We believe shareholders are going to support the improved bid given the fair takeout premium. |
|
Cardtronics |
CATM US |
19/02/2021 |
38.7 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021 |
|
GW Pharma |
GWPH US |
19/02/2021 |
213.8 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021 |
|
RSA Insurance Group |
RSA LN |
19/02/2021 |
676.2 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021 |
|
Kiadis |
KDS NA |
19/02/2021 |
5.4 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021 |
|
Coca-Cola Amatil |
CCL AU |
19/02/2021 |
13.4 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 19, 2021 |
|
China Traditional Chinese Medicine |
570 HK |
17/02/2021 |
4.5 |
A firm deal in our view has higher likelihood than what is implied by the current market price. |
|
GW Pharma |
GWPH US |
16/02/2021 |
213.9 |
The deal spread appears to be attractive. We expect the deal to receive regulatory approval and close in May 2021. |
|
Dialog Semiconductor Plc |
DLG GY |
16/02/2021 |
65.2 |
The deal spread of 3% appears to be somewhat tight given the long timeline. We believe that counterbid or improved bid optionality is limited and does not justify such tight spread. |
|
Cardtronics |
CATM US |
16/02/2021 |
38.8 |
Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 16, 2021 |
|
Grandvision |
GVNV NA |
16/02/2021 |
26.1 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas February 16, 2021 |
|
RSA Insurance Group |
RSA LN |
16/02/2021 |
676.0 |
Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas February 16, 2021 |
|
Sogou |
SOGO US |
16/02/2021 |
8.3 |
Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 16, 2021 |
|
Varian Medical |
VAR US |
16/02/2021 |
176.2 |
Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas February 16, 2021 |
|
Kiadis Pharma |
KDS NA |
16/02/2021 |
5.4 |
Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas February 16, 2021 |
|
Aggreko PLC |
AGK LN |
12/02/2021 |
851.0 |
The offer price appears to be at the lower end of fair takeout value estimate. |
|
Sportsman's Warehouse |
SPWH US |
11/02/2021 |
17.6 |
We would not take a position at this moment as the regulatory review will take several months. Ultimately the deal is likely to be approved without any divestitures. |
|
Marston's |
MARS LN |
08/02/2021 |
99.4 |
Despite the U.K. pub sector is hammered by the pandemic, we suppose opportunistic takeovers are over. On a risk-reward basis, we would go long MARS below 95p as we expect a final offer between 130p to 140p. |
|
Sogou |
SOGO US |
05/02/2021 |
8.3 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 5, 2021 |
|
Varian Medical |
VAR US |
05/02/2021 |
176.4 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 5, 2021 |
|
Cardtronics |
CATM US |
05/02/2021 |
38.8 |
The deal spread appears to be too tight, therefore we recommend a position short CATM. |
|
Sogou |
SOGO US |
05/02/2021 |
8.3 |
We believe that the deal will be approved in China given Tencent already had a majority stake before the deal and the companies were in close collaboration. However, the recent earnings release and Cayman court ruling makes us cautious. |
|
Perspecta |
PRSP US |
03/02/2021 |
29.1 |
We don’t find the current spread attractive. |
|
Scapa Group |
SCPA LN |
02/02/2021 |
218.5 |
We believe shareholders are going to accept the offer in case no counterbid emerges, given the fair all-cash offer and the strategic rationale. |
|
DXC |
DXC US |
29/01/2021 |
29.2 |
We believe the implied offer is on the lower end, despite DXC’s poor standalone prospects. The transactions strategic rationale lacks consensus amongst analysts, despite the unquestionable synergy potential. In addition, both DXC and ATO votes can hold unpleasant surprises. The offer consideration mix has to be fine-tuned to satisfy both sides, in our view. |
|
Coherent Inc. |
COHR US |
26/01/2021 |
204.7 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however we would wait to enter a position long given the long timeline. |
|
MCUBSMidcity Investment Corp |
3227 JT |
22/01/2021 |
95800.0 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 26, 2021 |
|
Bingo |
BIN AU |
22/01/2021 |
3.3 |
We don’t see significant hurdles for a firm deal to be agreed as the offer appears to be attractive based on peer / precedent valuation and given the founding family has the option to roll over its stake and has the potential for higher consideration over time via the scrip alternative. Target board might be able to squeeze out some more from the bidders given the significant rebound potential in the business |
|
Cantel Medical |
CMD US |
21/01/2021 |
80.4 |
With limited downside risk, we believe the deal offers a relatively cheap bet on a potential increased offer or counter bid, if the regulatory hurdle is cleared. |
|
Change Healthcare |
CHNG US |
20/01/2021 |
24.0 |
We expect an extended antitrust review and believe that the deal will ultimately be approved by regulators. |
|
CA Immo |
CAI AV |
18/01/2021 |
35.3 |
We believe the offer price does not represent a compelling value. |
|
Kiadis |
KDS NA |
15/01/2021 |
5.3 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 15, 2021 |
|
Coca-Cola Amatil |
CCL AU |
15/01/2021 |
13.0 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 15, 2021 |
|
Intratil |
IFT NZ |
15/01/2021 |
7.2 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 15, 2021 |
|
ODP |
ODP US |
15/01/2021 |
45.6 |
ODP’s historical valuation metrics, the synergy potential, and precedent transaction multiples also justify a higher offer price |
|
Xilinx |
XLNX US |
12/01/2021 |
147.2 |
Update on DCSA approval - manageable risk |
|
FLIR Systems |
FLIR US |
11/01/2021 |
52.9 |
We believe that there is a high probability of an extended antitrust review. Therefore, the mid-2021 timeline estimate of the companies might be a bit optimistic in our view. |
|
Great Canadian Gaming |
GC CN |
11/01/2021 |
43.4 |
We don’t see a strong motivation for Apollo to walk away, in addition we note that their options are limited. |
|
Great Canadian Gaming |
GC CN |
08/01/2021 |
43.4 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021 |
|
Willis Towers Watson |
WLTW US |
08/01/2021 |
203.6 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021 |
|
National General |
NGHC US |
08/01/2021 |
34.2 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021 |
|
Virtusa |
VRTU US |
08/01/2021 |
51.2 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021 |
|
Entra |
ENTRA NO |
08/01/2021 |
194.0 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021 |
|
KAZ Minerals |
KAZ LN |
08/01/2021 |
706.6 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 8, 2021 |
|
Entain |
ENT LN |
07/01/2021 |
1468.0 |
We believe there are strong merits for the deal and MGM has ample of room to improve current terms. We see an acceptable offer at least around 1600p which makes us recommend ENT long on a favorable risk reward |
|
Signature Aviation |
SIG LN |
07/01/2021 |
411.6 |
Given that SIG is trading above the proposed terms we don’t recommend taking a position, as we don’t see significant upside to the proposed price |
|
Magellan Health |
MGLN US |
06/01/2021 |
93.6 |
We expect the deal timeline to be driven by state approvals and the deal to close in 3Q2021. |
|
Aphria |
APHA CN |
23/12/2020 |
9.2 |
We see limited deal risk or any chance of an extended deal review. However, the deal spread of 0.4% is too tight to recommend a position. |
|
Pluralsight |
PS US |
23/12/2020 |
20.5 |
A superior offer appears unlikely, however it is a cheap trade to bet on one. |
|
Aerojet Rocketdyne |
AJRD US |
22/12/2020 |
52.8 |
We expect the deal to close in October/November 2021. We see path to approval based on the framework set by the Orbital/Northrop precedent, however heavy opposition can be expected from AJRD customers Boeing and Raytheon |
|
TORC Oil & Gas |
TOG CN |
17/12/2020 |
2.7 |
Consolidation in the Canadian oil & gas industry is at full steam ahead. With operating efficiencies and focus on deleveraging, deal premiums continue to be minimal. We see limited risks to the TOG/WCP combination and expect the timeline to be driven by the timing of the shareholder votes. |
|
Alexion |
ALXN US |
17/12/2020 |
157.8 |
The deal spread (assuming one more dvd for AZN) appears to be somewhat tight given the shareholder vote risk and the lengthy deal timeline |
|
Infratil |
IFT NZ |
16/12/2020 |
7.0 |
Based on our SOTP, we believe that the valuation of the offer is not compelling. |
|
Slack Technologies |
WORK US |
15/12/2020 |
|
Added to best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas December 15, 2020 |
|
Sogou |
SOGO US |
14/12/2020 |
8.13 |
We believe that the deal will be approved in China given Tencent already had a majority stake before the deal and the companies were in close collaboration. |
|
Seacor Holdings |
CKH US |
11/12/2020 |
41.79 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 11, 2020 |
|
Omnicell |
OMCL US |
11/12/2020 |
116.76 |
We believe that a firm deal has higher probability compared to what is implied by its market price. |
|
Seacor Holdings |
CKH US |
11/12/2020 |
42.02 |
Seacor is trading above terms. We believe that downside is limited in a deal break and shareholders are somewhat reluctant to tender into the current AIP offer. We see an acceptable offer price in the $46-$52 price range; thus we recommend a position long CKH. |
|
Waddell & Reed Financial |
WDR US |
10/12/2020 |
25.54 |
We see limited risks to the deal. The deal spread is driven by dividend expectations and timeline. We expect the deal to close in May 2021. |
|
Siltronic |
WAF GY |
08/12/2020 |
124.95 |
We believe that there is a high probability of a firm deal however, post-announcement, we expect a deal spread in the 5%-10% range given the antitrust-related risk |
|
Entra |
ENTRA NO |
04/12/2020 |
179.6 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 4, 2020 |
|
AA Plc |
AA LN |
03/12/2020 |
0.33 |
The deal spread reflects the risk associated with the shareholder vote. Considering the uncertainties and the sizable downside risk, we do not recommend going long deal spread. |
|
IHS Markit |
INFO US |
03/12/2020 |
99.67 |
We don’t find the current deal spread attractive. |
|
Credito Valtellinese |
CVAL IM |
02/12/2020 |
11.17 |
Given the limited upside, a long position does not look appealing on a risk-reward basis. |
|
Entra |
ENTRA NO |
01/12/2020 |
176.2 |
We believe there is further upside up to the NOK190-NOK210 range thus we recommend a position long ENTRA |
|
Slack Technologies |
WORK US |
26/11/2020 |
40.7 |
We believe that the possible deal has strong strategic rationale and it is very likely to get done. We see upside to around $45/WORK share. |
|
Great Canadian Gaming |
GC CN |
24/11/2020 |
37.63 |
The announcement received resistance from key Great Canadian shareholders. We agree with shareholders on valuation and we find it difficult to justify the GC board recommendation. We expect the takeover attempt to fizzle out eventually as the gap between shareholders’ demands and the C$39.0 offer appear to be too big to overcome. |
|
CAR |
699 HK |
24/11/2020 |
3.67 |
We believe that the key risk is around debt refinancing. The offer price appears to be attractive. |
|
RSA Insurance Group |
RSA LN |
24/11/2020 |
675.8 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight. |
|
MCUBSMidcity Investment Corp |
3227 JP |
20/11/2020 |
80600 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 20, 2020 |
|
HD Supply |
HDS US |
20/11/2020 |
55.8 |
We expect no extended antitrust review or counter bid. |
|
Willis Towers Watson |
WLTW US |
17/11/2020 |
210.61 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide and the risk reward (given the limited downside) favors taking a long position on the deal spread |
|
Navistar |
NAV US |
17/11/2020 |
43.99 |
The deal spread appears to be attractive given limited risks to the deal and potential upside to timeline. |
|
Codemasters |
CDM LN |
16/11/2020 |
477.5 |
We see upside to the current valuation as a result of a bump or counter bid with limited downside. |
|
Taubman Centers |
TCO US |
16/11/2020 |
42.8 |
Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas November 16, 2020 |
|
NetEnt |
NETB SS |
13/11/2020 |
84.5 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 13, 2020 |
|
MCUBSMidcity Investment Corp |
3227 JP |
13/11/2020 |
78300 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 13, 2020 |
|
AMP |
AMP AU |
11/11/2020 |
1.67 |
We believe the implied offer price represents a fair premium. |
|
Husky Energy |
HSE CN |
10/11/2020 |
4.51 |
The lack of deal spread can be explained with limited downside risk, in our view. |
|
KAZ Minerals |
KAZ LN |
06/11/2020 |
628 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 6, 2020 |
|
Tiffany |
TIF US |
06/11/2020 |
131.15 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 6, 2020 |
|
Concho |
CXO US |
06/11/2020 |
42.39 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 6, 2020 |
|
Kiadis Pharma |
KDS NA |
06/11/2020 |
5.13 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Antitrust risk appears to be limited and no significant product updates expected before deal-close. |
|
KAZ Minerals |
KAZ LN |
04/11/2020 |
6.23 |
The deal spread appears to be attractive based on limited risks to the deal. |
|
Xilinx |
XLNX US |
03/11/2020 |
118.48 |
The lengthy deal timeline and the bidder shareholder vote risk makes us reluctant to recommend a position long deal spread at current stage. |
|
Concho Resources |
CXO US |
30/10/2020 |
41.51 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 30, 2020 |
|
Bilfinger |
GBF GY |
29/10/2020 |
15.97 |
We see huge upside in a takeover situation, however in the current market environment a firm deal is somewhat unlikely |
|
Coca-Cola Amatil |
CCL AU |
29/10/2020 |
12.43 |
The deal spread is tight. The key risk appears to be the shareholder approval. |
|
McCarthy & Stone Plc |
MCS LN |
27/10/2020 |
115.40 |
We assign low probability to counter bid or an increased offer. |
|
AMAG Pharmaceuticals |
AMAG US |
23/10/2020 |
13.67 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 23, 2020 |
|
Play Communications |
PLY PW |
23/10/2020 |
38.74 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 23, 2020 |
|
Concho Resources |
CXO US |
22/10/2020 |
44.28 |
The dividend differential makes the spread attractive. We expect the deal to |
|
BioSpecifics Technologies |
BSTC US |
22/10/2020 |
88.30 |
The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight. As we don’t see a counterbidder coming in for BSTC and Endo is likely to succeed at current terms an improved offer appears to be a wild card scenario |
|
Link |
LNK AU |
22/10/2020 |
4.94 |
We believe that there is a good chance for a firm deal given the premium, support from the largest shareholder and the bidder’s history with LNK |
|
Parsley Energy |
PE US |
21/10/2020 |
10.38 |
The number of potential counter bidders for Permian shale assets is limited and buyers are not willing to offer premiums. PXD’s size and valuation poses a high hurdle to a bid on the bidder side. Therefore, a counter bid for either party is unlikely in our view. |
|
DouYu |
DOYU US |
20/10/2020 |
15.76 |
The ~3% deal spread appears to be unattractive, considering the uncertainties associated with the regulatory process. |
|
Xilinx |
XLNX US |
19/10/2020 |
118.23 |
Limited room for further XLNX price increase and the uncertainty around a firm deal announcement makes us reluctant to recommend a position long XLNX. |
|
Grubhub |
GRUB US |
15/10/2020 |
83.59 |
Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas October 15, 2020 |
|
Saracen Mineral Holdings |
SAR AU |
14/10/2020 |
6.11 |
The deal spread is tight. We see limited risk with the shareholder approval and the bidder’s creditor consent. |
|
MyoKardia |
MYOK US |
13/10/2020 |
221.64 |
We recommend going long deal spread as we don’t anticipate significant risks to the deal. |
|
Eaton Vance Health |
EV US |
12/10/2020 |
60.31 |
We expect the deal to close in April 2021. The key risk is the >80% client consent condition. The deal spread does not appear to be attractive at this |
|
AMAG Pharmaceuticals |
AMAG US |
09/10/2020 |
13.33 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 9, 2020 |
|
Virtusa |
VRTU US |
09/10/2020 |
50.32 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 9, 2020 |
|
AMAG Pharmaceuticals |
AMAG US |
07/10/2020 |
13.08 |
The deal spread appears to be wide given MAE carve-outs include product related events. Thus, we recommend a position long AMAG. |
|
Konecranes Oyj |
KCR FH |
07/10/2020 |
28.50 |
The deal spread appears to be too tight. We expect a lengthy regulatory review which might result in divestitures. We also note the 15% dissent condition, that might become important in case of diverging performance of the merging parties. |
|
William Hill |
WMH LN |
06/10/2020 |
279.80 |
WMH is trading above terms on an improved offer by CZR or a counterbid optionality. At current terms we assign high probability of the deal being blocked by shareholders unless CZR improves the current offer. We don’t see a counterbid as a relevant option. |
|
WPX Energy |
WPX US |
06/10/2020 |
5.24 |
The deal spread looks unattractive as we don’t see substantial upside as a |
|
Sogou |
SOGO US |
02/10/2020 |
8.89 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 1, 2020 |
|
Fitbit |
FIT US |
02/10/2020 |
6.92 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 1, 2020 |
|
Ahlstrom-Munksjo |
AM1 FH |
01/10/2020 |
17.80 |
The deal multiple is somewhat lower than precedents. The bidder might have to increase its offer to reach 90% in case of strong shareholder opposition. |
|
Virtusa |
VRTU US |
30/09/2020 |
48.55 |
The deal spread appears to be attractive but the ongoing proxy contest between New Mountain and Virtusa’s Board brings uncertainty into the picture. |
|
Cubic |
CUB US |
29/09/2020 |
60.4 |
We believe that the upside/downside and the likelihood of a firm deal offers a favorable entry point around $60. |
|
Play Communications |
PLY PW |
25/09/2020 |
38.58 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 25, 2020 |
|
Varian Medical |
VAR US |
25/09/2020 |
171.99 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 25, 2020 |
|
National General |
NGHC US |
25/09/2020 |
33.875 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 25, 2020 |
|
Craft Brew Alliance |
BREW US |
25/09/2020 |
16.47 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 25, 2020 |
|
Play Communications |
PLY PW |
24/09/2020 |
38.58 |
The deal spread is tight, however one might speculate on a counter-bid given the relatively low valuation and limited deal risk. |
|
COL Pcl |
COL TB |
24/09/2020 |
18.6 |
COL shareholder vote appears to be the key hurdle to the deal. Support from almost 50% of shares indicates that the shareholder vote is likely to succeed. |
|
G4S |
GFS LN |
22/09/2020 |
186.15 |
We see substantial upside in a friendly situation however the downside risk does not offer a favorable risk reward. |
|
MCUBS MIDCITY INVESTMENT CORP |
3227 JP |
18/09/2020 |
77300 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 18, 2020 |
|
OptiComm |
OPC AU |
18/09/2020 |
6.03 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 18, 2020 |
|
Highland Gold |
HGM LN |
18/09/2020 |
298.6 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 18, 2020 |
|
Citadel Group |
CGL AU |
18/09/2020 |
5.57 |
N/A |
|
Altice |
ATC NA |
18/09/2020 |
4.14 |
The relatively low implied valuation is opportunistic, in our view. We see limited probability for an improved offer. The offer price represents a floor for ATC |
|
OptiComm |
OPC AU |
17/09/2020 |
6.03 |
Removed from best ideas list in Best Ideas September 17, 2020 |
|
MCUBS MIDCITY INVESTMENT CORP |
3227 JP |
17/09/2020 |
78000 |
Added to best ideas list in Best Ideas September 17, 2020 |
|
Immunomedics Health |
IMMU US |
17/09/2020 |
85.36 |
We expect no significant issues with regulatory approvals.Product related events are carved out of MAE. |
|
MCUBSMidcity Investment Corp |
3227 JP |
14/09/2020 |
74900 |
The deal spread appears to be attractive due to the dividend differential. |
|
Bankia |
BKIA SM |
14/09/2020 |
1.39 |
We see room for CABK to meet BKIA owners'demand of 30% premium however,the lengthy deal timeline and the political sensitivity of the deal might limit the upside on a firm deal announcement. |
|
Jinmao Hotel |
6139 HK |
11/09/2020 |
4.77 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 11, 2020 |
|
HiQ |
HIQ SS |
11/09/2020 |
70 |
The valuation is on the upper endof precedents’range, in our view. As a result we don’t expect a counterbid. |
|
Grubhub |
GRUB US |
09/09/2020 |
69.69 |
The Takeaway.com shareholder vote is the keyremaining risk. We believe that TKWY shareholders will support the deal due to its strategic nature and key shareholder agreements. |
|
Tiffany |
TIF US |
09/09/2020 |
114.69 |
The key questions in our view are, whether the outside date extension could be challenged and whether the French Ministry letter qualifies as a legal prohibition as per the DMA or not. Based on the availableinformation we believe that TIF hastheupper handina court case |
|
Kansas City Southern |
KSU US |
08/09/2020 |
188 |
We would not take a position at this point as room for the bidders to increase the offer priceappears to be limitedandthe target might seemore valuein a standalone scenario. |
|
Fitbit |
FIT US |
04/09/2020 |
6.33 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 4, 2020 |
|
Grubhub |
GRUB US |
04/09/2020 |
68.82 |
Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 4, 2020 |
|
Wright Medical |
WMGI US |
04/09/2020 |
30.45 |
Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 4, 2020 |
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Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest). As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level. |
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Neither the information, nor any opinion expressed, in a Chain Bridge report constitutes a solicitation by Chain Bridge for the purchase or the sale of securities. Chain Bridge reports do not constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual investors. The information set forth in the reports was obtained from publicly available sources that we believe to be reliable. While due care is taken by Chain Bridge in compiling the data and in forming its opinions, Chain Bridge gives no warranty, express or implied, and it does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided.
The reports published by Chain Bridge intend to provide professional, institutional, buy-side investors with a view regarding the various risks and critical factors impacting the completion of certain mergers and acquisitions. Therefore, the opinions expressed do not fit with traditional buy, sell, and hold ratings.
