Coverage List

Stock

Ticker

Date Published

Market Price on Publication Date

Recommendation

Pioneer Natural Resources

PXD US

08/03/2024

243.52

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 3, 2024

Sovos Brands

SOVO US

08/03/2024

22.95

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 3, 2024

Neogames

NGMS US

08/03/2024

28.84

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 3, 2024

McGrath

MGRC US

08/03/2024

122.56

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight despite the second request is likely to cause major delay in the deal timeline.

Vizio Holding

VZIO US

08/03/2024

11.025

While we don’t see serious regulatory issues, a second request cannot be ruled out in our view.

CSR

CSR US

04/03/2024

8.83

The deal spread appears to be tight, however a counter bid cannot be ruled out.

Catalent

CTLT US

28/02/2024

58.29

We expect lengthy deal reviews in multiple jurisdictions.

Discover Financial Services

DFS US

27/02/2024

120.71

We believe that the deal is likely to be challenged as reduces competition in the already concentrated and scrutinized credit card business.

Altium

ALU AU

26/02/2024

65.12

The deal spread appears to be driven by the expected closing in H2 and the large premium paid by Renesas.

Saras

SRS IM

21/02/2024

1.729

The deal spread appears to be tight. There is a chance of an increased offer in case the two-thirds required to delist is not achieved.

Newmark Property REIT

NPR AU

19/02/2024

1.35

We believe that the deal acceptance threshold will be met despite activist criticism.

Textainer Group Holdings

TGH US

16/02/2024

49.75

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 16, 2024

Adevinta

ADE NO

16/02/2024

114.6

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 16, 2024

Redrow

RDW LN

16/02/2024

668

Upside to the companies’ assumed deal timeline makes the spread attractive.

MorphoSys

MOR US

14/02/2024

17.34

Pelabresib appears to be complementary to Novartis’ Jakavi in myelofibrosis.

Wincanton

WIN LN

12/02/2024

432

The deal spread appears to be attractive as we do not expect any regulatory issues to arise.

Haynes International

HAYN US

09/02/2024

60

The parties’ 3Q guidance appears to be realistic. We believe that there might be pushback from shareholders due to the low premium and a takeout multiple only slightly above where key peers are trading without a takeout premium.

NuStar Energy

NS US

09/02/2024

22.42

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however we note the likelihood of an extended US review and the cost of SUN short.

Tricon Residential

TCN US

05/02/2024

11.02

The proposed arrangement appears to be a low-premium offer when compared to peers and precedents. 

Karuna Therapeutics

KRTX US

02/02/2024

314.17

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February  2, 2024

Karuna Therapeutics

KRTX US

02/02/2024

314.17

We find the deal spread attractive, as we don’t expect a second request, however a re-filing is possible.

Ansys

ANSS US

31/01/2024

329.2

The deal spread reflects the antitrust-related and timing risks.

Axonics

AXNX US

29/01/2024

68.01

The deal spread appears to be attractive, given that BSX portfolio does not overlap with AXNX’s primary product, which drives the deal rationale.

Applus Services

APPS SM

26/01/2024

11.01

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January  26, 2024

Kindred Group

KINDSDB SS

24/01/2024

121.7

We would not take a position due to the long timeline. Major shifts in market fundamentals might influence shareholders’ willingness to tender into the offer at SEK130/share.

Intervest

INTO BB

19/01/2024

20.85

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 19, 2024

WestRock

WRK US

19/01/2024

40.33

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide.

Benefit One

2412 JP

18/01/2024

2141

We expect Pasona and the Benefit One board to accept Dai-ichi’s offer.

Southwestern Energy

SWN US

16/01/2024

7.01

We don’t find the current 1.1% spread attractive even if the deal does not receive a second request.

JSR

4185 JP

12/01/2024

4042

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 12, 2024

Juniper Networks

JNPR US

12/01/2024

37.75

The key risk is timing in our view, as antitrust concerns appear to be limited and parties have committed to make divestitures or litigate if necessary.

PGT Innovations

PGTI US

12/01/2024

41.36

PGTI is trading above terms. We see the room and incentive for Miter to improve the current offer for PGTI, a key high-end asset.

Smart Metering Systems

SMS LN

09/01/2024

940

We believe that an increased offer is likely, however downside is significant.

Shinko Electric Industries

6967 JT

08/01/2024

5495

We expect the deal to receive regulatory approvals in all jurisdictions.

Greenvolt Energias

GVOLT PL

03/01/2024

8.2

While the 1-day premium is not stellar, the offer price appears to be fair. Support from the top-6 shareholders makes us believe that the 90% threshold is likely to be met. The spread is not attractive in our view as the offer is likely to close in 3Q24.

Point Biopharma

PNT US

22/12/2023

12.48

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 22, 2023

Euronav

EURN BB

22/12/2023

16.09

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 22, 2023

Dechra

DPH LN

22/12/2023

3852

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 22, 2023

Textainer Group Holdings

TGH US

22/12/2023

49.19

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 22, 2023

US Steel

X US

22/12/2023

48.16

We believe that the deal is likely to close, however there might be delays to the antitrust and/or CFIUS reviews due to bipartisan political opposition

Santos

STO AU

21/12/2023

7.6

At this point there is still significant uncertainty whether a firm offer would get the support of Santos’ board.

Icosavax

ICVX US

20/12/2023

15.47

We find the value of the CVR moderately attractive.

Cerevel

CERE US

15/12/2023

41.1

Despite the overlaps in a number of therapeutic areas, the deal is likely to overcome regulatory obstacles.

Eagle Bulk

EGLE US

15/12/2023

51.77

We expect the deal to close in May 2024

Hawaiian Holdings

HA US

11/12/2023

13.94

The deal appears to be less problematic compared to SAVE/JBLU and structural divestitures appear to be feasible. Finding a suitable buyer might be difficult.

OreCorp

ORE AU

11/12/2023

0.5

We are skeptical that a further increase in the offer price would make Perseus support the Scheme.

ImmunoGen

IMGN US

07/12/2023

29.32

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide driven by the substantial downside, lack of product-related MAE carve out, potential delay in the deal timeline and some upcoming catalysts even in the coming months. One may consider taking a position long IMGN going into the expiry of the HSR waiting period.

Spirit Airlines

SAVE US

04/12/2023

14.29

We still believe that the DOJ has the upper hand as the acquisition will eliminate ULCC competition in most routes SAVE services today and possible harms appear to outweigh deal benefits.

Adevinta

ADE NO

01/12/2023

111.5

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 1, 2023

Point Biopharma

PNT US

01/12/2023

13.8

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 1, 2023

Adevinta

ADE NO

01/12/2023

111.8

The current spread, the downside around NOK82-86 and an early 2Q 2024 deal close implies a ~3%-4% deal breaking probability. The upside to the deal timeline makes the current spread attractive.

Marel

MAREL NA

01/12/2023

2.85

N/A

Capri Holdings

CPRI US

27/11/2023

48.21

We would not take a position due to the long timeline and the significant downside. Despite their huge market share, we don’t believe that the combination of the three leading affordable handbag brands would significantly alter industry dynamics.

Dechra

DPH LN

24/11/2023

3822

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 24, 2023

Gresham House

GHE LN

24/11/2023

1102.5

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 24, 2023

Point Biopharma

PNT US

24/11/2023

13.59

In case of positive results from the Splash trial, we expect PNT shares to trade in the high teens. 12.50 represents a floor price for a position long PNT.

Halfords Group

HFD LN

24/11/2023

230

In our view the probability of a firm deal is low at the current stage. 

Intervest

INTO BB

17/11/2023

20.5

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 17, 2023

Bluegreen Vacations

BVH US

17/11/2023

73.97

We expect minimal antitrust risks due to intense competition in the timeshare market, expecting deal closure around March/April 2024. 

Amedisys

AMED US

17/11/2023

92.95

It appears that the divestiture cap will be sufficient to meet divestiture requirements.

Six Flags

SIX US

13/11/2023

23.2

We expect the deal to pass the shareholder vote despite the opposing activist.

Healthia

HLA AU

10/11/2023

1.79

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2023

ESI Group

ESI FP

10/11/2023

154

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2023

Capri

CPRI US

10/11/2023

47.11

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2023

Lithium Power International

LPI AU

10/11/2023

0.525

We expect FIRB approval to be granted as LPI is left with no major Australian assets.  Chilean regulatory issues are unlikely, given Codelco’s position as a state-owned company is in line with the country’s policy.

Physicians Realty Trust

DOC US

07/11/2023

11.6

The deal appears to favour PEAK, but we believe that it is likely to be approved by both sets of shareholders.

Opdenergy Holdings

OPDE SM

03/11/2023

5.79

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 3, 2023

Intervest

INTO BB

03/11/2023

20.15

We believe that the deal will get a Phase 1 approval due to TPG’s limited exposure to the Belgian Real Estate market.

Olink Holding

OLK US

31/10/2023

24.7

A second request is likely in our view, due to TMO’s size and existing exposure to proteomics.

Textainer Group Holdings

TGH US

31/10/2023

49.1

Based on the TRTN/Brookfield deal, we don’t see regulatory hurdles. We see low likelihood of a higher offer.

Sovos Brands

SOVO US

27/10/2023

21.72

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 27, 2023

Euronav

EURN BB

27/10/2023

16.81

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 27, 2023

ESI Group

ESI FP

27/10/2023

149.5

We expect the mandatory offer to settle in the second half of 1Q2024.

Hess

HES US

27/10/2023

153.18

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide unless two dividend payments will occur.

Wyndham

WH US

25/10/2023

74.15

We see limited room for CHH to improve its offer due to leverage and EPS accretion constraints. A hostile offer is unlikely due to WH’s takeover defenses.

Euronav

EURN BB

20/10/2023

17.8

We recommend a long position on EURN due to limited deal-related risks.

SP Plus

SP US

17/10/2023

50.81

We note the extended timeline estimate, but we do not expect an HSR second request.

Nextgen

NXGN US

13/10/2023

23.82

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 13, 2023

Majorel

MAJ NA

13/10/2023

29.8

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 13, 2023

Pioneer Natural Resources

PXD US

13/10/2023

240.36

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. We see an HSR second request as a wild card scenario.

Mirati Therapeutics

MRTX US

12/10/2023

57.02

The deal spread appears to be tight, considering that product-related issues are not carved out of MAE and the long timeline to a possible CVR payout.

Point Biopharma Global

PNT US

10/10/2023

12.375

The deal spread is tight. While product related events are carved out of MAE, topline results from PNT2002's Phase III SPLASH trial might arrive before deal close.

Neogames

NGMS US

06/10/2023

27.15

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 6, 2023

Gresham House

GHE LN

06/10/2023

1070

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 6, 2023

Adevinta

ADE NO

06/10/2023

108.3

Assuming a 95% probability of a deal at NOK 115 and a post-announcement spread of ~2% we see further ~3% upside that can be collected. 

Consolidated Uranium

CUR CN

05/10/2023

1.82

We expect regulatory approvals to be granted and CFIUS to drive the deal timeline. Deal rationale seems to be there, however the premium has disappeared since Sept 27.

Desktop Metal

DM US

29/09/2023

1.46

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 29, 2023

Splunk

SPLK US

29/09/2023

146.51

The deal spread reflects the lengthy deal timeline. Ultimately, we see the deal being approved without major remedies.

Origin Energy

ORG AU

29/09/2023

8.9

An increased the offer price might be necessary to secure the approval of shareholders.

PGS

PGS NO

26/09/2023

9.16

The deal spread appears to be tight given the parties have yet to conduct due diligence and considering the long timeline and possible regulatory hiccups.

Hamburger Hafen und Logistik

HHFA GR

21/09/2023

16.74

We assign low probability to a counterbid as no formal third-party approach has been made. The German FDI approval might extend the timeline by several months, in our view.

WestRock

WRK US

20/09/2023

35.77

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Timing and shareholder vote-related risks are reflected in the current spread.

Healthia

HLA AU

15/09/2023

1.745

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 15, 2023

NextGen Healthcare

NXGN US

15/09/2023

23.58

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 15, 2023

Desktop Metal

DM US

15/09/2023

1.51

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 15, 2023

Applus Services

APPS SM

15/09/2023

9.91

We believe that there is a high likelihood the offers will be further increased given the upside to the current valuation.

NextGen Healthcare

NXGN US

13/09/2023

23.62

Deal risk is limited. Despite the high premium one might consider going long NXGN on a low-probability counterbid.

Healthia

HLA AU

13/09/2023

1.74

The deal spread appears to be attractive, however the downside is significant.

Horizon Therapeutics

HZNP US

08/09/2023

115.42

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 8, 2023

Ergomed

ERGO LN

08/09/2023

1,352

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight considering the low probability of a counterbid.

Chindata

CD US

07/09/2023

8.34

We note that a takeover by CMC would most likely require further regulatory approvals and take longer than the Bain transaction.

The Necessity Retail REIT

RTL US

06/09/2023

6.97

The deal might break on the bidder vote as independent proxy advisers urged GNL holders to vote against the deal. The current deal spread offers a favorable risk/reward for a position short RTL and long GNL betting on that outcome.

Abcam

ABCM US

05/09/2023

22.83

The deal price appears to be fair. We attach low probability to an increased offer.

Desktop Metal

DM US

05/09/2023

1.78

The DM/SSYS deal spread appears to be somewhat tight. For an SSYS/DDD deal we assign a low probability.

Capri

CPRI US

01/09/2023

52.76

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 1, 2023

Eneti

NETI US

01/09/2023

10.84

The key risk is the CMA approval in our view. While the deal spread appears to be wide, the substantial downside makes us cautious.

Estia Health

EHE AU

30/08/2023

3.02

As the SID is now signed and recommended by the Estia board we expect the deal to close on schedule in December this year.

Costa Group Holdings

CGC AU

25/08/2023

2.96

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 25, 2023

Sculptor Capital

SCU US

25/08/2023

11.48

The upside in a high probability counterbid appears to compensate for the downside at the current offer price.

United States Steel

X US

22/08/2023

31.93

An X/CLF deal would face serious antitrust risk in our view. Other suitors could run into other issues including union opposition, national security concerns, financing.

Gresham House

GHE LN

21/08/2023

1057.5

The deal spread appears to be driven by the potential downside and the large number of regulatory approvals required.

Capri Holdings

CPRI US

18/08/2023

51.94

We believe there is a high likelihood of an extended antitrust review. However, one might speculate on a swift HSR approval as the deal spread appears to be wide

ESI Group

ESI FP

15/08/2023

148

Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 15, 2023

Triton International

TRTN US

15/08/2023

83.15

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas August 15, 2023

Kahoot

KAHOT NO

15/08/2023

34.17

While the one-day premium appears to be low, we expect the acceptance condition / delisting threshold to be met given the premium over the unaffected share price.

Sovos Brands

SOVO US

14/08/2023

22.55

The deal spread appears to be tight, given the likelihood of a second request.

Dice Therapeutics

DICE US

11/08/2023

47.55

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 11, 2023

Pacific Current

PAC AU

11/08/2023

10.77

We believe that the upside will driven by GQG’s proposal as it will have to post an appealing offer for the current co-operating bidders who can block the deal.

New Relic

NEWR US

10/08/2023

83.89

We see no major antitrust risk, but an extended review cannot be ruled out.

Amedisys

AMED US

04/08/2023

91.86

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 4, 2023

Chinook Therapeutics

KDNY US

04/08/2023

40.28

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 4, 2023

Reata Pharmaceuticals

RETA US

04/08/2023

167.16

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide despite the substantial downside.

Dechra Pharmaceuticals

DPH LN

03/08/2023

3748

We don’t expect extended regulatory reviews and expect the deal to close late this year

Heritage-Crystal Clean

HCCI US

02/08/2023

46.38

While HCCI is currently trading through the bid price, we attach low probability

Costa Group Holdings

CGC AU

28/07/2023

3.31

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 28, 2023

Chinook Therapeutics

KDNY US

28/07/2023

39.08

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 28, 2023

Denbury

DEN US

25/07/2023

86.53

We believe the current deal spread is too tight considering the risks around the transaction.

TransAlta Renewables

RNW CN

24/07/2023

13.42

The key question in our view is whether RNW shareholders will feel compensated by the deal premium for the significant dividend dilution of their shares.

Ordina

ORDI NA

21/07/2023

5.71

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 21, 2023

Opdenergy Holdings

OPDE SM

21/07/2023

5.73

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 21, 2023

JSR

4185 JP

14/07/2023

4080

The deal spread appears to be explained by fears of a hostile Chinese view of the offer.

Quotient Technology

QOUT US

13/07/2023

3.85

While the companies are competitors, regulatory risk is moderate in our view. Based on that, we would go long QUOT into the expiry of the HSR waiting period.

Costa Group Holdings

CGC AU

12/07/2023

3.28

We see high likelihood of a firm deal as the board indicated its willingness to recommend a transaction at the offered price and the bidder is familiar with CGC as it owned of the company before its 2015 IPO.

United Malt Group

UMG AU

10/07/2023

4.79

The deal spread appears to be driven by current fears of regulatory issues.

American Equity Investment

AEL US

06/07/2023

52.7

The key risk is the timing of the insurance regulatory approvals. Given the long timeline, the current deal spread is unattractive.

Amedisys

AMED US

05/07/2023

91.35

We see some upside to the lengthy deal timeline if asset divestitures do not require upfront buyers and given the FTC know-how based on recent precedents.

ESI Group

ESI FP

04/07/2023

148

The mandatory offer is expected to commence in 4Q2023.

Syneos Health

SYNH US

30/06/2023

42.14

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023

Iveric Bio

ISEE US

30/06/2023

39.34

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023

Dice Therapeutics

DICE US

30/06/2023

46.46

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023

Covestro

1COV GR

30/06/2023

47.47

While ADNOC might not return with an improved bid, Covestro could attract takeover interest from other parties.

Uponor

UPONOR FH

29/06/2023

28.62

While we don’t expect major regulatory issues, the deal spread appears to be too tight.

Dice Therapeutics

DICE US

28/06/2023

46.7

The short timeline and the limited deal risk make us believe that the deal spread is wide.

NexTier Oilfield Solutions

NEX US

26/06/2023

8.4

Overall, we believe regulators will sign-off the deal, but a second request cannot be ruled out.

SoftwareONE

SWON SW

21/06/2023

17.69

Based on industry peer multiples and our LBO model we believe that there would be room for an entry of a counter bidder at a higher offer price if Bain fails to make an increased bid.

Stratasys

SSYS US

20/06/2023

15.47

At the current stage, we see 90% probability to a DM/SSYS deal close and a 10% probability to a successful NNDM partial tender offer. DDD is not in the mix in our view with its current proposal

Opdenergy Holdings

OPDE SM

16/06/2023

5.67

Deal risk is limited. We believe the current deal spread is unattractive given the lengthy timeline.

Chinook Therapeutics

KDNY US

16/06/2023

37.63

We believe that there is a decent chance of a second request. Due to the mitigating factors (approved treatments, large number of competing pipeline assets) however, one might consider going long KDNY into the expiry of the HSR waiting period betting on a swifter approval.

Telenet Group

TNET BB

09/06/2023

20.64

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 9, 2023

Syneos Health

SYNH US

09/06/2023

41.66

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 9, 2023

VectivBio Holding

VECT US

07/06/2023

16.6

One might consider going long VECT into the tender offer period as deal risks seem limited. However, IRWD might also attract third party interest.

PDC Energy

PDCE US

06/06/2023

71.36

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight given the potentially lengthy US review.

Uponor

UPONOR FH

06/06/2023

27.44

We believe that there might be a higher offer from Aliaxis or third parties for Uponor. We see upside to the high-twenties.

Dechra Pharma

DPH LN

02/06/2023

3632

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023

Heska Corp

HSKA US

02/06/2023

119.84

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023

Bellus Health

BLU CN

02/06/2023

19.65

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023

Horizon Therapeutics

HZNP US

31/05/2023

99.88

Despite the long court process, the deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus we continue to recommend a position long HZNP.

Neogames

NGMS US

30/05/2023

27.25

The deal is expected to close in 2024

Heska Corp

HSKA US

26/05/2023

115.55

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 26, 2023

Syneos Health

SYNH US

19/05/2023

41.52

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide despite the limited deal risk.

Allkem

AKE AU

19/05/2023

25.51

N/A

Magellan Midstream Partners

MMP US

19/05/2023

62.77

The deal spread is tight considering the tax implications occurring from the transaction.

Amedisys

AMED US

15/05/2023

75.95

We see a high probability of a deal break. We would be long OPCH without a hedge on the target side.

Rothschild & Co

ROTH FP

12/05/2023

47.35

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Canaccord Genuity

CF CN

12/05/2023

9.42

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Majorel

MAJ NA

12/05/2023

28.95

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Triton International

TRTN US

12/05/2023

82.83

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Iveric Bio

ISEE US

12/05/2023

37.6

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Arconic

ARNC US

12/05/2023

29.06

We expect regulatory approvals to be granted and that the deal timeline will be driven by the SAMR review.

Blackmores

BKL AU

12/05/2023

94.5

The deal spread appears to be tight, especially considering the special dividend payable before deal close.

Heska Corp

HSKA US

12/05/2023

117

The deal spread is tight considering the antitrust risk, in our view. One might speculate a short HSKA on an HSR second request.

Software AG

SOWG GR

08/05/2023

33

Bain appears to face an uphill battle to trump Silver Lake’s offer or team up with its rival.

Bellus Health

BLU CN

05/05/2023

19.37

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 5, 2023

Teck Resources

TECK/B CN

05/05/2023

57.99

We assign low probability to a firm deal at the current stage given Teck’s and Canada’s opposition.

Network International

NETW LN

05/05/2023

382

We assign a high probability (~70%) of a firm offer and some upside optionality (20% probability of a 450p offer) given the competitive bidding situation. Despite of the low probability (less than 10%) of a no deal situation, the significant downside makes a NETW long position unattractive.

Iveric Bio

ISEE US

04/05/2023

38.05

We don’t see serious antitrust issues, however we note that pipeline-related events are not carved out of MAE and the deal might not close before the August 19 PDUFA date.

Bellus Health

BLU CN

02/05/2023

14.51

N/A

Triton International

TRTN US

02/05/2023

82

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. We note that the BIPC share price is around the lower end of the collar, making hedging the long position costly.

Dechra Pharma

DPH LN

28/04/2023

3730

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 28, 2023

Activison Blizzard

ATVI US

28/04/2023

77.71

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 28, 2023

Majorel

MAJ NA

28/04/2023

29.25

We expect the deal to close in October 2023. The deal spread appears to be attractive as we don’t expect serious regulatory concerns.

Dechra Pharmaceuticals

DPH LN

25/04/2023

3746

We believe that there is a fairly good chance for a firm deal to be announced. A position long into the firm deal announcement appears to offer attractive risk-reward.

Prometheus Biosciences

RXDX

24/04/2023

194.46

We don’t expect antitrust issues given the limited overlap between the companies.

Telenet Group

TNET BB

21/04/2023

21.04

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023

Rothschild & Co

ROTH FP

21/04/2023

46.7

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023

Ordina

ORDI NA

21/04/2023

5.58

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023

Diversey

DSEY US

21/04/2023

8.16

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023

Canaccord Genuity

CF CN

21/04/2023

10.67

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 24, 2023

Life Storage

LSI US

19/04/2023

136.4

We don’t see PSA coming back with an improved offer. The deal spread reflects the limited deal risk.

Liontown

LTR AU

14/04/2023

2.73

The valuation offered appears to be attractive compared to precedents.

Stratasys

SSYS US

11/04/2023

15.47

The deal spread appears to be wide with limited downside. However, we believe that the SSYS poison pill will successfully defend the target against NNDM’s unsolicited approach and NNDM is limited to improve its offer further.

VMWare

VMW US

06/04/2023

121.9

We would not take a position in the deal spread due to the extended reviews in several jurisdictions and the uncertainty around the Chinese process. We see little chance that all issues of major regulatory bodies (foreclosure/interoperability, innovation, bundling) could be solved by behavioural remedies, especially considering that such remedies are out of favour in the US and UK. Structural remedies might trigger MAE and the final extended outside date might be too close in case of an FTC lawsuit. 

Canaccord Genuity

CF CN

06/04/2023

10.7

The bidders need to increase their bid to gain board recommendation, in our view. However, they might still reach 50%+1 with their current offer.

Healius

HLS AU

03/04/2023

3.16

The current status of the approach is highly uncertain. There are multiple obstacles that ACL has to overcome in order to complete a transaction. It further has to be noted that a potential counterbid from private equity or a foreign strategic investor would not raise similar antitrust issues. 

Shaw Communications

SJR/B CN

31/03/2023

40.45

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 31, 2023

Telenet Group

TNET BB

30/03/2023

20.88

The spread to the proposed price appears to be somewhat wide however the downside is significant.

Ordina

ORDI NA

30/03/2023

5.97

Deal risk is limited. Considering the longer timeline, the deal spread appears to be too tight.

Diversey

DSEY US

27/03/2023

8.03

The deal spread appears to be attractive. However, the timeline is lengthy and multiple regulatory approvals will be required.

GK Software

GKS GR

24/03/2023

189.6

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 24, 2023

Va-Q-Tec

VST GR

23/03/2023

23.4

Considering the long timeline and the risk/reward of a positive antitrust decision, the deal spread appears to be tight. We note the substantial downside (~50%).

Seagen

SGEN US

22/03/2023

199.91

We don’t see the deal going through without structural remedies due to overlaps in several fields of oncology.

Credit Suisse

CSGN SW

22/03/2023

0.8464

CSGN is trading above terms with effectively no upside optionality for shareholders. We recommend a short on the deal spread. We note that setting up positions might be costly.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings

AAWW US

17/03/2023

102.48

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 17, 2023

Black Knight

BKI US

17/03/2023

55.4

We see limited options for the parties to tackle all antirust issues.

InvoCare

IVC AU

16/03/2023

11.92

Based on InvoCare’s leading market share, the strength of the core business, historical valuation and precedent / peer multiples we believe that the Board might push for an increased bid.

Rothschild & Co

ROTH FP

14/03/2023

46.95

Considering the lengthy timeline, the current spread is tight. We assign low probability to a price bump.

Distell

DGH SJ

10/03/2023

17973

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings

AAWW US

10/03/2023

99.93

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023

GK Software

GKS GR

10/03/2023

186

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 10, 2023

Uni-Select

UNS CN

10/03/2023

46.77

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight, given the lengthy deal review.

GK Software

GKS GR

09/03/2023

186.8

We don’t expect extended antitrust or FDI review and see deal close in June 2023.

Tegna

TGNA US

03/03/2023

17.04

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 3, 2023

TravelCenters of America

TA US

03/03/2023

84.57

We believe that an extended review is unlikely and the mid-2023 /3Q deal close guidance is realistic.

Newcrest Mining

NCM AU

01/03/2023

23.38

NCM is currently trading below the rejected offer. We would expect at least one improved offer from Newmont.

1Life Healthcare

ONEM US

24/02/2023

16.47

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 27, 2023

Cardiovascular Systems

CSII US

24/02/2023

19.71

We see a limited probability of an HSR second request. However, nowadays healthcare faces higher regulatory attention in the US. Hence, we would conclude that the current deal spread is tight.

Kape Technologies

KAPE LN

22/02/2023

293

While we don’t expect the Board to support the offer at the current valuation an increased offer appears to be unlikely. Unikmind would be close to the 70% minimum acceptance threshold with the support of ExpressVPN founders, and with their support they most likely have the majority required at the EGM (75% of votes cast) to delist KAPE. Unikmind might even succeed with its current shareholding of 54.8%.

Oak Street Health

OSH US

17/02/2023

35.38

Given the lengthy deal review and other pending deals, the spread appears to be fair. The spread will be driven by the outcome of pending deals in the industry.

Magnet Forensics

MAGT CN

17/02/2023

44.25

MAGT is currently trading at the bid price. One could speculate on a bump, as Thoma Bravo might need to lift its bid in case target shareholder opposition further mounts

NuVasive

NUVA US

15/02/2023

44.4

We would not rule out a second request and a longer than expected deal timeline.

Meltwater

MWTR NO

08/02/2023

17.81

We expect the offer to close in May 2023.

Evoqua Water Technologies

AQUA US

08/02/2023

50.25

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight given the possible delay in case of an HSR second request.

IAA Inc

IAA US

02/02/2023

42.41

The key risk is the bidder shareholder vote. While we see a higher chance that the deal will receive the requisite shareholder approvals than not, independent proxy advisors’ view might be crucial.

Atlas Corp

ATCO US

02/02/2023

14.82

Based on the deal premium, our standalone value estimate, peer and precedent multiples, industry headwinds and the fact that no other shareholders joined opposing holders we believe that it is more likely that the deal will be approved at the AGM.

Horizon Therapeutics

HZNP US

27/01/2023

110.63

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest Januar 27, 2023

Rovio

ROVIO FH

26/01/2023

7.16

Any deal would require the support of the controlling shareholder. There are no ongoing talks and the Rovio announcement sounds rather dismissive.

Horizon Therapeutics

HZNP US

26/01/2023

112.13

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus we recommend a position long HZNP. We note the substantial downside.

ForgeRock

FORG US

24/01/2023

19.99

Overall, we believe regulators are more likely to approve the merger than not. Microsoft’s unquestionable market presence might cool down antitrust concerns.

Caverion

CAV1V FH

20/01/2023

7.97

We believe that Bain has to increase its offer to retain support of the Caverion Board.

National Instruments

NATI US

20/01/2023

53.87

Due to NATI’s strong takeover defenses, EMR can’t force a deal without Board consent. NATI might drag the strategic review and based on the CEO’s bullish comments, they might elect to remain a standalone company. We see limited upside to the current offer based on our ROIC and LBO calculations.

Tegna

TGNA US

18/01/2023

20.01

Added to best ideas list in Best Ideas Januar 18, 2023

Duck Creek Technologies

DCT US

13/01/2023

19

Given the valuation and the limited number of potential counterbidders, we see low probability for a counterbid. However, the short timeline and the limited deal risk might offer a favourable entry point for an improved offer.

CinCor Pharma

CINC US

13/01/2023

29.01

We believe the CVR could worth ~$2-2.3 per share. Based on that the current spread is unattractive.

Euronav

EURN BB

13/01/2023

13.44

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 13, 2023

Albireo

ALBO US

11/01/2023

43.85

The CVR does not appear to be cheap at $1.85 considering the potentially long timeline until payout.

Sierra Wireless

SW CN

02/01/2023

41.62

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 06, 2023

Nitro Software

NTO AU

06/01/2023

2.21

Nitro is trading slightly above the A$2.15 per share recommended bid. While we believe Potentia needs to raise its offer to win, it might not be able to outbid KKR’s Alludo.

Aerojet Rocketdyne

AJRD US

22/12/2022

55.6

We see much less incentive for LHX to foreclose any of AJRD’s customers, misuse missile related sensitive information or to decrease R&D investment in missile technology.

Maxar Technologies

MAXR US

22/12/2022

51.78

We believe regulatory risk is limited. We recommend a position long MAXR going into the go-shop period as a cheap bet on a low probability counterbid.

Chr Hansen

CHR DC

20/12/2022

501

The deal spread appears to be tight considering the long timeline and the regulatory risk.

Va-Q-tec

VQT GR

19/12/2022

25.4

We would be cautious to take a position long in VQT as there are key geographical and product overlap which might lead to antitrust scrutiny.

Apollo Endosurgery

APEN US

16/12/2022

9.91

The deal spread is tight; however, one might speculate on a counterbid as APEN’s attractive portfolio might attract other suitors. We don’t expect extended antitrust review.

Shaw Communications

SJR/B CN

13/12/2022

36.515

We believe that Shaw and Rogers have the upper hand in the Tribunal process.

Horizon Therapeutics

HZNP US

9/12/2022

97.22

We see some upside potential, as we expect that Horizon will receive an offer before the January 10 deadline, potentially around $110-120.

Univar Solutions

UNVR US

9/12/2022

33.4

We believe Brenntag could offer up to ~$40.50 for Univar, however it would need to issue a large number of new shares which would make the deal unattractive to the company despite the potential synergies.

Devro

DVO LN

8/12/2022

308.5

The merging parties anticipate a Q3 2023 deal close. This might indicate a high probability of an indepth antitrust review. Based on that, the deal spread appears to be somewhat tight.

Home Capital Group

HCG CB

2/12/2022

42.61

We believe the deal will receive the required regulatory approvals, however timing seems uncertain.

Origin Energy

ORG AU

1/12/2022

7.97

The possible upside on a firm deal announcement appears to be narrow, as regulatory concerns justify a wide spread, however we expect that after a lengthy review the ACCC approval will be granted.

Imago BioSciences

IMGO US

30/11/2022

35.7

We believe the deal spread is not attractive. The substantial downside and limited upside make us refrain from recommending a long IMGO.

Activision Blizzard

ATVI US

22/11/2022

82.15

Regulatory update

Vantage Towers

VTWR GR

22/11/2022

32.7

The domination agreement offers some upside (5-15%) which incentivizes minorities not to tender into the offer. This increases the probability of a domination agreement post offer.

IAA Inc

IAA US

17/11/2022

39.95

The main risks are the shareholder votes. Other IAA shareholders might oppose and put pressure on RBA and IAA boards to renegotiate

Atlantia

ATL IM

16/11/2022

22.93

Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas November 16, 2022

HomeServe

HSV LN

16/11/2022

1191

Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas November 16, 2022

Store Capital

STOR US

16/11/2022

31.7

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide given the limited deal risk. We recommend a position long STOR.

Altra Industrial Motion

AIMC US

15/11/2022

58.43

We expect the deal to receive a second request in the US as the companies have several horizontal overlaps and are competing with each other in some niche markets.

Tegna

TGNA US

11/11/2022

18.99

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2022

Euronav

EURN BB

11/11/2022

18.08

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2022

Euronav

EURN BB

10/11/2022

12.8

Given the high probability of a successful tender offer and limited deal risk, we believe the 2.5% deal spread is somewhat wide. Therefore, one may consider a position long deal spread with a view on a possibly shorter timeline.

ReadyTech

RDY AU

08/11/2022

4

We believe, PEP will come back with a sweetened offer, thus we would recommend a position long in RDY, especially as the spread is more than 10%. However, the downside could be around AUD3-3.1

Abiomed

ABMD US

07/11/2022

373.99

The CVR does not look attractive given the long expected timeline to trigger milestone payments.

Distell

DGH SJ

04/11/2022

17305

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 4, 2022

Tower Semiconductor

TSEM US

04/11/2022

48.21

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 4, 2022

Sierra Wireless

SW CN

28/10/2022

40.33

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 28, 2022

SeaSpine Holdings

SPNE US

27/10/2022

6.21

We see some risk regarding the shareholder approvals, however we are still optimistic that both shareholder groups
will vote for the merger.

Albertsons

ACI US

27/10/2022

20.36

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. However, political opposition, timeline and final consideration related uncertainties make us refrain from recommending a position long deal spread.

Sierra Wireless

SW CN

26/10/2022

40.54

We believe regulators will approve the deal without any remedies, as there are no horizontal overlaps and vertical issues are limited. Based on that, we would go long SWIR.

Interstrust

INTER NA

21/10/2022

19.94

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 21, 2022

Swedish Match

SWMA SS

21/10/2022

111.5

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 21, 2022

Aveva Group

AVV LN

20/10/2022

3147

Update on shareholder opposition - We believe target shareholder approval could be guaranteed with an offer of around GBp3300. We see Schneider sweetening its bid given that it is highly likely that publicly opposing shareholders have a blocking
stake

ForgeRock

FORG US

19/10/2022

22.54

Overall, we believe regulators will sign-off the deal given the fragmented nature of the IAM submarkets. We note the substantial downside.

Atlantia

ATL IM

14/10/2022

22.39

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 14, 2022

Pushpay

PPH NZ

14/10/2022

1.15

A firm deal announcement could be made around NZD1.4, but we see it hard for BGH to win PPH Board’s support as it could be hard to negotiate a satisfactory offer for both parties.

Myovant

MYOV US

14/10/2022

25.1

Limited downside and high probability of an improved offer makes us recommend a long MYOV.

Poshmark

POSH US

11/10/2022

17.66

Deal risk is limited; thus the spread is tight. We expect the deal to close in mid-Q1 2023

1Life Healthcare

ONEM US

07/10/2022

16.98

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 7, 2022

HomeServe

HSV LN

07/10/2022

1185

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 7, 2022

DXC Technology

DXC US

07/10/2022

26.89

Assuming a 5% probability to an offer at $45 and 25% at $35 we would take a position long DXC below ~$27.

Capricorn Energy

CNE LN

07/10/2022

245.4

The main risks are the shareholder votes, thus we would retain from a position at this point.

Pendragon

PDG LN

04/10/2022

27.2

We believe that it would be difficult for the Board not to support Hedin’s 29p offer after the Board and other Top 5 shareholders were willing to engage with a third party in August at the same price. The Board might use the time until the PUSU deadline to try and find a better deal before granting its support to Hedin’s bid.

BTRS Holdings

BTRS US

04/10/2022

9.27

Deal risk is limited. We expect the deal to close in Q1 2023.

Pendal

PDL AU

30/09/2022

4.5

The market seems to be pessimistic about the deal. We would expect a deal close by the end of mid/late Q1.

Cano Health

CANO US

29/09/2022

8.84

We assign a high probability to a firm deal announcement. While activist shareholder and an analyst assume a $14 possible takeout price, with a conservative $12 takeout a riskreward still favors a position long CANO.

Atlas Air Worldwide Holdings

AAWW US

28/09/2022

95.88

The key risk is around debt financing, thus the deal spread is somewhat wide. We would refrain from a position long AAWW at this stage.

Tegna

TGNA US

23/09/2022

21.55

Update - We continue to consider the deal spread to be somewhat wide.

Avalara

AVLR US

23/09/2022

92.25

We would go long AVLR as we believe the majority of target shareholders will approve the deal, while we wouldn’t rule out a bump in the bid price if opposing shareholders gain enough support. However, we note that substantial (~30%) downside if the deal breaks on the vote.

Tyro Payments

TYR AU

16/09/2022

1.28

We expect that Tyro will receive a sweetened offer from either the consortium, another PE, or a strategic bidder.

GB Group

GBG LN

16/09/2022

5.94

Given the opportunistic timing of GTCR’s interest, there is a fair chance that talks fall apart. However, other PE firms might also turn up as GBG seems to be undervalued.

Signify Health

SGFY US

14/09/2022

29.07

The current 4.6% deal spread appears to be somewhat wide, assuming a deal close not earlier than mid-2023. We cannot rule out that vertical issues will be deeply scrutinized.

Brigham Minerals

MNRL US

13/09/2022

28.05

We believe that the 1Q2023 deal close guidance is manageable.

Link Net TBK

LINK IJ

09/09/2022

4750

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 9, 2022

Countryside Partnerships

CSP LN

09/09/2022

257.2

We see no major obstacles confronting the deal, as both shareholder and CMA approvals should be smooth. The deal spread appears to be wide, however we note that Vistry might be subject to a bid that could lead to a deal break.

Turquoise Hill Resources

TRQ CN

09/09/2022

41.23

Despite the materially improved bid from Rio Tinto, opposing shareholders have a good chance to derail the transaction.

RPS Group

RPS LN

05/09/2022

210

RPS is trading above terms on a counterbid/improved bid optionality, however we don’t see a counter bidder coming in, thus we would not take a position long RPS.

Link Net TBK

LINK IJ

02/09/2022

4750

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 2, 2022

Drilling Co of 1972

DRLCO DC

02/09/2022

369.4

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 2, 2022

AVEVA

AVV LN

02/09/2022

2810

We would recommend taking a position long AVEVA as we expect a firm deal in the range of GBp2950-3150.

Micro Focus International

MCRO LN

30/08/2022

519

The deal is expected to close in 1Q2023 due to the numerous regulatory approvals required.

Nearmap

NEA AU

26/08/2022

2.1

A counterbid from another private equity appears to be unlikely, however cannot be ruled out completely.

Recipe Unlimited

RECP CN

26/08/2022

19.85

One may consider a position long RECP going into deal announcement

Darktrace

DARK LN

22/08/2022

5.26

We believe there is good chance for an agreed firm deal with Thoma Bravo. The target might squeeze out an offer above 700p given the attractive valuation and possible counterbid interest.

OZ Minerals

OZL AU

18/08/2022

25.84

While deal rationale appears to be strong, the gap between parties’ valuation might be too large to overcome.

Atlantia

ATL IM

16/08/2022

22.84

Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 16, 2022

Meggitt

MGGT LN

16/08/2022

792.8

Removed from best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 16, 2022

ChemoCentryx

CCXI US

16/08/2022

50.89

Based on the minor overlap in AAV treatment, regulatory scrutiny is unlikely to arise.

Global Blood Therapeutics

GBT US

15/08/2022

66.75

An HSR re-filing might not be ruled out, however a second request appears to be unlikely based on the overlap and the competitive dynamics of the SCD space. Product related developments are not carved out of MAE, however no significant events are expected before deal close. 

iRobot

IRBT US

10/08/2022

59.5

We would not take a position at this time given the regulatory risks, long deal timeline and IRBT’s challenges.

Ping Identity Holding Corp

PING US

09/08/2022

28.01

Deal risk is limited. We don’t see upside to the offer price thus chances of a counterbid are low.

Quilter

QLT LN

09/08/2022

119.5

While it is hard to see whether a firm deal will materialize, we see the deal rationale, and would expect an offer price between GBp145-160.

Infomedia

IFM AU

03/08/2022

1.59

We expect a firm deal announcement with final offer price around AUD1.75-1.85.

Serica Energy

SQZ LN

02/08/2022

355.5

We don’t see the deal being accretive for bidder shareholders at current terms. Even assuming significant synergies does not change the math.

Link Net TBK

LINK IJ

29/07/2022

4650

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 29, 2022

1Life Healthcare

ONEM US

29/07/2022

16.97

We believe that the deal might get a second request given the global scrutiny surrounding Big Tech, however it is likely to be approved given the lack of significant antitrust concerns

Infrastructure and Energy Alternatives

IEA US

29/07/2022

14.14

We don’t expect an extended antitrust review given the competitive and fragmented market. As per our valuation, counterbid is also possible.

Ironsource

IS US

28/07/2022

3.87

We see the merger as a good opportunity both for Ironsource and Unity shareholders, with some extra risk for Unity, as the leverage gained on a ad-tech asset might be badly timed.

Meridian Bioscience

VIVO US

25/07/2022

32.48

The deal spread reflects the DOJ investigation-related uncertainty.

Epizyme

EPZM US

21/07/2022

1.48

We see no major risk for the deal to finalize, but we are cautious about whether the shareholders will receive any CVR, although one may consider buying an almost free option for the possible CVR payouts.

Resolute Forest Products

RFP US

19/07/2022

20.22

We believe the deal will be approved with remedies after an extended Canadian antitrust review. The likelihood of the CVR payout seems highly uncertain.

Intertrust NV

INTER NA

15/07/2022

19.04

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 15, 2022

Vivo Energy

VVO LN

15/07/2022

152.8

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 15, 2022

Valora Holding

VALN SW

14/07/2022

259

The deal poses no major risk, therefore probability of close is high at offer terms. A counterbid cannot be ruled out, however we see it as a wild card scenario.

Autogrill Spa

AGL IM

14/07/2022

6.3

The transfer of Edizione’s 50.3% stake is currently expected to close in Q1 2023, subject to regulatory approvals, while the transaction inclusive of mandatory takeover offer settlement is expected to be completed by Q2 2023.

Twitter

TWTR US

12/07/2022

32.65

We believe that Musk’s arguments are not strong enough to justify deal termination. While Twitter has good chance to enforce specific performance, the court might prefer the parties agreeing in a cut price deal or awarding damages instead of forcing an unwilling buyer to acquire Twitter.

LifeWorks

LWRK CN

08/07/2022

31.11

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however timing of the deal and dividend differential changes make a position difficult to evaluate. Low deal risk and significant downside makes us cautious.

ContourGlobal

GLO LN

05/07/2022

2.525

One might consider going long GLO as deal risk seems to be limited. However, we note the substantial downside.

Radius Health

RDUS US

05/07/2022

10.48

We see some risk regarding the CVR payment condition and the 50+% tender offer condition too, not ruling out that the bidder consortium will raise the offer.

Swedish Match

SWMA SS

01/07/2022

104.55

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 1, 2022

Drilling Co of 1972

DRLCO DC

01/07/2022

282.6

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 1, 2022

 

 

 

 

 

Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest).  As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level.

 

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The reports published by Chain Bridge intend to provide professional, institutional, buy-side investors with a view regarding the various risks and critical factors impacting the completion of certain mergers and acquisitions. Therefore, the opinions expressed do not fit with traditional buy, sell, and hold ratings.