Stock

Ticker

Date Published

Market Price on Publication Date

Recommendation

Saras

SRS IM

17/05/2024

1.765

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 17, 2024

Shockwave Medical

SWAV US

17/05/2024

330.13

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 17, 2024

Hibbett

HIBB US

17/05/2024

86.21

The offer premium appers to be on the lower end when compared to peers and precedents.

Anglo American

AAL LN

16/05/2024

2629

We believe that the accelerated restructuring of AAL will be a successful step to defend AAL against the BHP proposals. We don’t see BHP offering a price acceptable for AAL board.

Salcef Group

SCF IM

10/05/2024

25.95

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 10, 2024

HasiCorp

HCP US

10/05/2024

32.76

We expect the deal to be approved but we give a high probability to an extended review.

Genex Power

GNX AU

09/05/2024

0.265

We expect the takeover offer to succeed in case the Scheme is voted down.

Pioneer Natural Resources

PXD US

02/05/2024

269.62

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 3, 2024

Hipgnosis Songs Fund

SONG LN

02/05/2024

104.8

We believe that there is further upside potential if Concord decides to match the Blackstone bid.

Matterport

MTTR US

02/05/2024

4.6

We believe that an extended regulatory review is a possibility as MTTR is by far the largest player in 3-D tour software/equipment and CSGP’s biggest competitors are also customers of the target.

MorphoSys

MOR GR

29/04/2024

17.32

We don’t think Novartis can walk away from its deal with Morphosys.

Salcef Group

SCF IM

26/04/2024

25.9

Given the limited deal risk and short timeline, the deal spread appears somewhat wide.

Encore Wire

WIRE US

23/04/2024

283.09

Counterbid appears to be a wild card scenario. A lengthy deal review is highly likely.

Spirent Communications

SPT LN

19/04/2024

194

We believe that Viavi has a strong incentive to come back before the vote on May 1. If so, we believe that further escalation by Keysight is unlikely as they can expect lower levels of synergies and higher antitrust risk.

Shockwave Medical

SWAV US

18/04/2024

327.1

An extended review is likely in our view as SWAV and Abiomed (JNJ) products are frequently used in the same procedure and based on the Axonics, Nuvasive (US) and Olink (UK) investigations.

MorphoSys

MOR GR

12/04/2024

67.8

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest April 12, 2024

Altium

ALU AU

12/04/2024

65.59

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 12, 2024

Cerevel

CERE US

12/04/2024

41.85

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest April 12, 2024

ChampionX

CHX US

12/04/2024

37.59

The deal spread appears to be tight, given the potential antitrust obstacles and lengthy deal timeline.

Virgin Money

VMUK LN

05/04/2024

215.2

The deal spread appears to be driven by the expected Q4 deal close.

Endeavor Group Holdings

EDR US

05/04/2024

26.2

There might be upside to the parties’ 1Q2025 timing estimate in case planned divestitures eliminate the need for gaming regulatory approvals.

DS Smith

SMDS LN

04/04/2024

410.8

We see 10%-20% upside in a bidding war given that both MNDI and IP have room to improve their current proposal.

Alumina

AWC AU

27/03/2024

1.31

The low spread reflects the limited deal risk.

Equitrans

ETRN US

26/03/2024

11.75

The deal spread reflects the timing uncertainty around the HSR approval and the approval and launch of the Mountain Valley Pipeline by the FERC.

Fusion Pharmaceuticals

FUSN US

26/03/2024

21.18

The April announcements add a potential upside to the deal.

Spirent Communications

SPT LN

19/03/2024

176.4

The offer appears to be a bit opportunistic as Viavi had most likely been eyeing Spirent for years.

Kindred Group

KINDSDB SS

15/03/2024

122.95

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 15, 2024

JSR

4185 JP

15/03/2024

4315

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 15, 2024

Karuna Therapeutics

KRTX US

15/03/2024

329.83

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 15, 2024

Applus Services

APPS SM

15/03/2024

11.3

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 15, 2024

Juniper Networks

JNPR US

15/03/2024

36.22

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 15, 2024

DS Smith

SMDS LN

14/03/2024

336.1

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight considering the lengthy deal timeline and the downside around 300p SMDS LN.

Talgo

TLGO SM

13/03/2024

4.23

We believe that the Spanish government is likely to challenge the deal after a thorough review.

Sterling Check

STER US

11/03/2024

15.96

The timing of the deal is likely driven by the number of antitrust and FDI approvals being required.

Pioneer Natural Resources

PXD US

08/03/2024

243.52

Add to best ideas list in Deal Digest March 8, 2024

Sovos Brands

SOVO US

08/03/2024

22.95

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 8, 2024

Neogames

NGMS US

08/03/2024

28.84

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest March 8, 2024

McGrath

MGRC US

08/03/2024

122.56

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight despite the second request is likely to cause major delay in the deal timeline.

Vizio Holding

VZIO US

08/03/2024

11.025

While we don’t see serious regulatory issues, a second request cannot be ruled out in our view.

CSR

CSR US

04/03/2024

8.83

The deal spread appears to be tight, however a counter bid cannot be ruled out.

Catalent

CTLT US

28/02/2024

58.29

We expect lengthy deal reviews in multiple jurisdictions.

Discover Financial Services

DFS US

27/02/2024

120.71

We believe that the deal is likely to be challenged as reduces competition in the already concentrated and scrutinized credit card business.

Altium

ALU AU

26/02/2024

65.12

The deal spread appears to be driven by the expected closing in H2 and the large premium paid by Renesas.

Saras

SRS IM

21/02/2024

1.729

The deal spread appears to be tight. There is a chance of an increased offer in case the two-thirds required to delist is not achieved.

Newmark Property REIT

NPR AU

19/02/2024

1.35

We believe that the deal acceptance threshold will be met despite activist criticism.

Textainer Group Holdings

TGH US

16/02/2024

49.75

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 16, 2024

Adevinta

ADE NO

16/02/2024

114.6

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest February 16, 2024

Redrow

RDW LN

16/02/2024

668

Upside to the companies’ assumed deal timeline makes the spread attractive.

MorphoSys

MOR GR

14/02/2024

17.34

Pelabresib appears to be complementary to Novartis’ Jakavi in myelofibrosis.

Wincanton

WIN LN

12/02/2024

432

The deal spread appears to be attractive as we do not expect any regulatory issues to arise.

Haynes International

HAYN US

09/02/2024

60

The parties’ 3Q guidance appears to be realistic. We believe that there might be pushback from shareholders due to the low premium and a takeout multiple only slightly above where key peers are trading without a takeout premium.

NuStar Energy

NS US

09/02/2024

22.42

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide however we note the likelihood of an extended US review and the cost of SUN short.

Tricon Residential

TCN US

05/02/2024

11.02

The proposed arrangement appears to be a low-premium offer when compared to peers and precedents. 

Karuna Therapeutics

KRTX US

02/02/2024

314.17

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest February  2, 2024

Karuna Therapeutics

KRTX US

02/02/2024

314.17

We find the deal spread attractive, as we don’t expect a second request, however a re-filing is possible.

Ansys

ANSS US

31/01/2024

329.2

The deal spread reflects the antitrust-related and timing risks.

Axonics

AXNX US

29/01/2024

68.01

The deal spread appears to be attractive, given that BSX portfolio does not overlap with AXNX’s primary product, which drives the deal rationale.

Applus Services

APPS SM

26/01/2024

11.01

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January  26, 2024

Kindred Group

KINDSDB SS

24/01/2024

121.7

We would not take a position due to the long timeline. Major shifts in market fundamentals might influence shareholders’ willingness to tender into the offer at SEK130/share.

Intervest

INTO BB

19/01/2024

20.85

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest January 19, 2024

WestRock

WRK US

19/01/2024

40.33

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide.

Benefit One

2412 JP

18/01/2024

2141

We expect Pasona and the Benefit One board to accept Dai-ichi’s offer.

Southwestern Energy

SWN US

16/01/2024

7.01

We don’t find the current 1.1% spread attractive even if the deal does not receive a second request.

JSR

4185 JP

12/01/2024

4042

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest January 12, 2024

Juniper Networks

JNPR US

12/01/2024

37.75

The key risk is timing in our view, as antitrust concerns appear to be limited and parties have committed to make divestitures or litigate if necessary.

PGT Innovations

PGTI US

12/01/2024

41.36

PGTI is trading above terms. We see the room and incentive for Miter to improve the current offer for PGTI, a key high-end asset.

Smart Metering Systems

SMS LN

09/01/2024

940

We believe that an increased offer is likely, however downside is significant.

Shinko Electric Industries

6967 JT

08/01/2024

5495

We expect the deal to receive regulatory approvals in all jurisdictions.

Greenvolt Energias

GVOLT PL

03/01/2024

8.2

While the 1-day premium is not stellar, the offer price appears to be fair. Support from the top-6 shareholders makes us believe that the 90% threshold is likely to be met. The spread is not attractive in our view as the offer is likely to close in 3Q24.

Point Biopharma

PNT US

22/12/2023

12.48

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 22, 2023

Euronav

EURN BB

22/12/2023

16.09

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 22, 2023

Dechra

DPH LN

22/12/2023

3852

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest December 22, 2023

Textainer Group Holdings

TGH US

22/12/2023

49.19

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 22, 2023

US Steel

X US

22/12/2023

48.16

We believe that the deal is likely to close, however there might be delays to the antitrust and/or CFIUS reviews due to bipartisan political opposition

Santos

STO AU

21/12/2023

7.6

At this point there is still significant uncertainty whether a firm offer would get the support of Santos’ board.

Icosavax

ICVX US

20/12/2023

15.47

We find the value of the CVR moderately attractive.

Cerevel

CERE US

15/12/2023

41.1

Despite the overlaps in a number of therapeutic areas, the deal is likely to overcome regulatory obstacles.

Eagle Bulk

EGLE US

15/12/2023

51.77

We expect the deal to close in May 2024

Hawaiian Holdings

HA US

11/12/2023

13.94

The deal appears to be less problematic compared to SAVE/JBLU and structural divestitures appear to be feasible. Finding a suitable buyer might be difficult.

OreCorp

ORE AU

11/12/2023

0.5

We are skeptical that a further increase in the offer price would make Perseus support the Scheme.

ImmunoGen

IMGN US

07/12/2023

29.32

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide driven by the substantial downside, lack of product-related MAE carve out, potential delay in the deal timeline and some upcoming catalysts even in the coming months. One may consider taking a position long IMGN going into the expiry of the HSR waiting period.

Spirit Airlines

SAVE US

04/12/2023

14.29

We still believe that the DOJ has the upper hand as the acquisition will eliminate ULCC competition in most routes SAVE services today and possible harms appear to outweigh deal benefits.

Adevinta

ADE NO

01/12/2023

111.5

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 1, 2023

Point Biopharma

PNT US

01/12/2023

13.8

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest December 1, 2023

Adevinta

ADE NO

01/12/2023

111.8

The current spread, the downside around NOK82-86 and an early 2Q 2024 deal close implies a ~3%-4% deal breaking probability. The upside to the deal timeline makes the current spread attractive.

Marel

MAREL NA

01/12/2023

2.85

N/A

Capri Holdings

CPRI US

27/11/2023

48.21

We would not take a position due to the long timeline and the significant downside. Despite their huge market share, we don’t believe that the combination of the three leading affordable handbag brands would significantly alter industry dynamics.

Dechra

DPH LN

24/11/2023

3822

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 24, 2023

Gresham House

GHE LN

24/11/2023

1102.5

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 24, 2023

Point Biopharma

PNT US

24/11/2023

13.59

In case of positive results from the Splash trial, we expect PNT shares to trade in the high teens. 12.50 represents a floor price for a position long PNT.

Halfords Group

HFD LN

24/11/2023

230

In our view the probability of a firm deal is low at the current stage. 

Intervest

INTO BB

17/11/2023

20.5

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 17, 2023

Bluegreen Vacations

BVH US

17/11/2023

73.97

We expect minimal antitrust risks due to intense competition in the timeshare market, expecting deal closure around March/April 2024. 

Amedisys

AMED US

17/11/2023

92.95

It appears that the divestiture cap will be sufficient to meet divestiture requirements.

Six Flags

SIX US

13/11/2023

23.2

We expect the deal to pass the shareholder vote despite the opposing activist.

Healthia

HLA AU

10/11/2023

1.79

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2023

ESI Group

ESI FP

10/11/2023

154

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2023

Capri

CPRI US

10/11/2023

47.11

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest November 11, 2023

Lithium Power International

LPI AU

10/11/2023

0.525

We expect FIRB approval to be granted as LPI is left with no major Australian assets.  Chilean regulatory issues are unlikely, given Codelco’s position as a state-owned company is in line with the country’s policy.

Physicians Realty Trust

DOC US

07/11/2023

11.6

The deal appears to favour PEAK, but we believe that it is likely to be approved by both sets of shareholders.

Opdenergy Holdings

OPDE SM

03/11/2023

5.79

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest November 3, 2023

Intervest

INTO BB

03/11/2023

20.15

We believe that the deal will get a Phase 1 approval due to TPG’s limited exposure to the Belgian Real Estate market.

Olink Holding

OLK US

31/10/2023

24.7

A second request is likely in our view, due to TMO’s size and existing exposure to proteomics.

Textainer Group Holdings

TGH US

31/10/2023

49.1

Based on the TRTN/Brookfield deal, we don’t see regulatory hurdles. We see low likelihood of a higher offer.

Sovos Brands

SOVO US

27/10/2023

21.72

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 27, 2023

Euronav

EURN BB

27/10/2023

16.81

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 27, 2023

ESI Group

ESI FP

27/10/2023

149.5

We expect the mandatory offer to settle in the second half of 1Q2024.

Hess

HES US

27/10/2023

153.18

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide unless two dividend payments will occur.

Wyndham

WH US

25/10/2023

74.15

We see limited room for CHH to improve its offer due to leverage and EPS accretion constraints. A hostile offer is unlikely due to WH’s takeover defenses.

Euronav

EURN BB

20/10/2023

17.8

We recommend a long position on EURN due to limited deal-related risks.

SP Plus

SP US

17/10/2023

50.81

We note the extended timeline estimate, but we do not expect an HSR second request.

Nextgen

NXGN US

13/10/2023

23.82

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 13, 2023

Majorel

MAJ NA

13/10/2023

29.8

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest October 13, 2023

Pioneer Natural Resources

PXD US

13/10/2023

240.36

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. We see an HSR second request as a wild card scenario.

Mirati Therapeutics

MRTX US

12/10/2023

57.02

The deal spread appears to be tight, considering that product-related issues are not carved out of MAE and the long timeline to a possible CVR payout.

Point Biopharma Global

PNT US

10/10/2023

12.375

The deal spread is tight. While product related events are carved out of MAE, topline results from PNT2002's Phase III SPLASH trial might arrive before deal close.

Neogames

NGMS US

06/10/2023

27.15

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 6, 2023

Gresham House

GHE LN

06/10/2023

1070

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest October 6, 2023

Adevinta

ADE NO

06/10/2023

108.3

Assuming a 95% probability of a deal at NOK 115 and a post-announcement spread of ~2% we see further ~3% upside that can be collected. 

Consolidated Uranium

CUR CN

05/10/2023

1.82

We expect regulatory approvals to be granted and CFIUS to drive the deal timeline. Deal rationale seems to be there, however the premium has disappeared since Sept 27.

Desktop Metal

DM US

29/09/2023

1.46

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 29, 2023

Splunk

SPLK US

29/09/2023

146.51

The deal spread reflects the lengthy deal timeline. Ultimately, we see the deal being approved without major remedies.

Origin Energy

ORG AU

29/09/2023

8.9

An increased the offer price might be necessary to secure the approval of shareholders.

PGS

PGS NO

26/09/2023

9.16

The deal spread appears to be tight given the parties have yet to conduct due diligence and considering the long timeline and possible regulatory hiccups.

Hamburger Hafen und Logistik

HHFA GR

21/09/2023

16.74

We assign low probability to a counterbid as no formal third-party approach has been made. The German FDI approval might extend the timeline by several months, in our view.

WestRock

WRK US

20/09/2023

35.77

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide. Timing and shareholder vote-related risks are reflected in the current spread.

Healthia

HLA AU

15/09/2023

1.745

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 15, 2023

NextGen Healthcare

NXGN US

15/09/2023

23.58

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 15, 2023

Desktop Metal

DM US

15/09/2023

1.51

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 15, 2023

Applus Services

APPS SM

15/09/2023

9.91

We believe that there is a high likelihood the offers will be further increased given the upside to the current valuation.

NextGen Healthcare

NXGN US

13/09/2023

23.62

Deal risk is limited. Despite the high premium one might consider going long NXGN on a low-probability counterbid.

Healthia

HLA AU

13/09/2023

1.74

The deal spread appears to be attractive, however the downside is significant.

Horizon Therapeutics

HZNP US

08/09/2023

115.42

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest September 8, 2023

Ergomed

ERGO LN

08/09/2023

1,352

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight considering the low probability of a counterbid.

Chindata

CD US

07/09/2023

8.34

We note that a takeover by CMC would most likely require further regulatory approvals and take longer than the Bain transaction.

The Necessity Retail REIT

RTL US

06/09/2023

6.97

The deal might break on the bidder vote as independent proxy advisers urged GNL holders to vote against the deal. The current deal spread offers a favorable risk/reward for a position short RTL and long GNL betting on that outcome.

Abcam

ABCM US

05/09/2023

22.83

The deal price appears to be fair. We attach low probability to an increased offer.

Desktop Metal

DM US

05/09/2023

1.78

The DM/SSYS deal spread appears to be somewhat tight. For an SSYS/DDD deal we assign a low probability.

Capri

CPRI US

01/09/2023

52.76

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest September 1, 2023

Eneti

NETI US

01/09/2023

10.84

The key risk is the CMA approval in our view. While the deal spread appears to be wide, the substantial downside makes us cautious.

Estia Health

EHE AU

30/08/2023

3.02

As the SID is now signed and recommended by the Estia board we expect the deal to close on schedule in December this year.

Costa Group Holdings

CGC AU

25/08/2023

2.96

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 25, 2023

Sculptor Capital

SCU US

25/08/2023

11.48

The upside in a high probability counterbid appears to compensate for the downside at the current offer price.

United States Steel

X US

22/08/2023

31.93

An X/CLF deal would face serious antitrust risk in our view. Other suitors could run into other issues including union opposition, national security concerns, financing.

Gresham House

GHE LN

21/08/2023

1057.5

The deal spread appears to be driven by the potential downside and the large number of regulatory approvals required.

Capri Holdings

CPRI US

18/08/2023

51.94

We believe there is a high likelihood of an extended antitrust review. However, one might speculate on a swift HSR approval as the deal spread appears to be wide

ESI Group

ESI FP

15/08/2023

148

Added to best ideas list in Euro Best Ideas August 15, 2023

Triton International

TRTN US

15/08/2023

83.15

Removed from best ideas list in Americas Best Ideas August 15, 2023

Kahoot

KAHOT NO

15/08/2023

34.17

While the one-day premium appears to be low, we expect the acceptance condition / delisting threshold to be met given the premium over the unaffected share price.

Sovos Brands

SOVO US

14/08/2023

22.55

The deal spread appears to be tight, given the likelihood of a second request.

Dice Therapeutics

DICE US

11/08/2023

47.55

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 11, 2023

Pacific Current

PAC AU

11/08/2023

10.77

We believe that the upside will driven by GQG’s proposal as it will have to post an appealing offer for the current co-operating bidders who can block the deal.

New Relic

NEWR US

10/08/2023

83.89

We see no major antitrust risk, but an extended review cannot be ruled out.

Amedisys

AMED US

04/08/2023

91.86

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest August 4, 2023

Chinook Therapeutics

KDNY US

04/08/2023

40.28

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest August 4, 2023

Reata Pharmaceuticals

RETA US

04/08/2023

167.16

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide despite the substantial downside.

Dechra Pharmaceuticals

DPH LN

03/08/2023

3748

We don’t expect extended regulatory reviews and expect the deal to close late this year

Heritage-Crystal Clean

HCCI US

02/08/2023

46.38

While HCCI is currently trading through the bid price, we attach low probability

Costa Group Holdings

CGC AU

28/07/2023

3.31

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 28, 2023

Chinook Therapeutics

KDNY US

28/07/2023

39.08

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 28, 2023

Denbury

DEN US

25/07/2023

86.53

We believe the current deal spread is too tight considering the risks around the transaction.

TransAlta Renewables

RNW CN

24/07/2023

13.42

The key question in our view is whether RNW shareholders will feel compensated by the deal premium for the significant dividend dilution of their shares.

Ordina

ORDI NA

21/07/2023

5.71

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest July 21, 2023

Opdenergy Holdings

OPDE SM

21/07/2023

5.73

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest July 21, 2023

JSR

4185 JP

14/07/2023

4080

The deal spread appears to be explained by fears of a hostile Chinese view of the offer.

Quotient Technology

QOUT US

13/07/2023

3.85

While the companies are competitors, regulatory risk is moderate in our view. Based on that, we would go long QUOT into the expiry of the HSR waiting period.

Costa Group Holdings

CGC AU

12/07/2023

3.28

We see high likelihood of a firm deal as the board indicated its willingness to recommend a transaction at the offered price and the bidder is familiar with CGC as it owned of the company before its 2015 IPO.

United Malt Group

UMG AU

10/07/2023

4.79

The deal spread appears to be driven by current fears of regulatory issues.

American Equity Investment

AEL US

06/07/2023

52.7

The key risk is the timing of the insurance regulatory approvals. Given the long timeline, the current deal spread is unattractive.

Amedisys

AMED US

05/07/2023

91.35

We see some upside to the lengthy deal timeline if asset divestitures do not require upfront buyers and given the FTC know-how based on recent precedents.

ESI Group

ESI FP

04/07/2023

148

The mandatory offer is expected to commence in 4Q2023.

Syneos Health

SYNH US

30/06/2023

42.14

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023

Iveric Bio

ISEE US

30/06/2023

39.34

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023

Dice Therapeutics

DICE US

30/06/2023

46.46

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 30, 2023

Covestro

1COV GR

30/06/2023

47.47

While ADNOC might not return with an improved bid, Covestro could attract takeover interest from other parties.

Uponor

UPONOR FH

29/06/2023

28.62

While we don’t expect major regulatory issues, the deal spread appears to be too tight.

Dice Therapeutics

DICE US

28/06/2023

46.7

The short timeline and the limited deal risk make us believe that the deal spread is wide.

NexTier Oilfield Solutions

NEX US

26/06/2023

8.4

Overall, we believe regulators will sign-off the deal, but a second request cannot be ruled out.

SoftwareONE

SWON SW

21/06/2023

17.69

Based on industry peer multiples and our LBO model we believe that there would be room for an entry of a counter bidder at a higher offer price if Bain fails to make an increased bid.

Stratasys

SSYS US

20/06/2023

15.47

At the current stage, we see 90% probability to a DM/SSYS deal close and a 10% probability to a successful NNDM partial tender offer. DDD is not in the mix in our view with its current proposal

Opdenergy Holdings

OPDE SM

16/06/2023

5.67

Deal risk is limited. We believe the current deal spread is unattractive given the lengthy timeline.

Chinook Therapeutics

KDNY US

16/06/2023

37.63

We believe that there is a decent chance of a second request. Due to the mitigating factors (approved treatments, large number of competing pipeline assets) however, one might consider going long KDNY into the expiry of the HSR waiting period betting on a swifter approval.

Telenet Group

TNET BB

09/06/2023

20.64

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 9, 2023

Syneos Health

SYNH US

09/06/2023

41.66

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest June 9, 2023

VectivBio Holding

VECT US

07/06/2023

16.6

One might consider going long VECT into the tender offer period as deal risks seem limited. However, IRWD might also attract third party interest.

PDC Energy

PDCE US

06/06/2023

71.36

The deal spread appears to be somewhat tight given the potentially lengthy US review.

Uponor

UPONOR FH

06/06/2023

27.44

We believe that there might be a higher offer from Aliaxis or third parties for Uponor. We see upside to the high-twenties.

Dechra Pharma

DPH LN

02/06/2023

3632

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023

Heska Corp

HSKA US

02/06/2023

119.84

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023

Bellus Health

BLU CN

02/06/2023

19.65

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest June 2, 2023

Horizon Therapeutics

HZNP US

31/05/2023

99.88

Despite the long court process, the deal spread appears to be somewhat wide thus we continue to recommend a position long HZNP.

Neogames

NGMS US

30/05/2023

27.25

The deal is expected to close in 2024

Heska Corp

HSKA US

26/05/2023

115.55

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 26, 2023

Syneos Health

SYNH US

19/05/2023

41.52

The deal spread appears to be somewhat wide despite the limited deal risk.

Allkem

AKE AU

19/05/2023

25.51

N/A

Magellan Midstream Partners

MMP US

19/05/2023

62.77

The deal spread is tight considering the tax implications occurring from the transaction.

Amedisys

AMED US

15/05/2023

75.95

We see a high probability of a deal break. We would be long OPCH without a hedge on the target side.

Rothschild & Co

ROTH FP

12/05/2023

47.35

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Canaccord Genuity

CF CN

12/05/2023

9.42

Removed from best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Majorel

MAJ NA

12/05/2023

28.95

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Triton International

TRTN US

12/05/2023

82.83

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Iveric Bio

ISEE US

12/05/2023

37.6

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 12, 2023

Arconic

ARNC US

12/05/2023

29.06

We expect regulatory approvals to be granted and that the deal timeline will be driven by the SAMR review.

Blackmores

BKL AU

12/05/2023

94.5

The deal spread appears to be tight, especially considering the special dividend payable before deal close.

Heska Corp

HSKA US

12/05/2023

117

The deal spread is tight considering the antitrust risk, in our view. One might speculate a short HSKA on an HSR second request.

Software AG

SOWG GR

08/05/2023

33

Bain appears to face an uphill battle to trump Silver Lake’s offer or team up with its rival.

Bellus Health

BLU CN

05/05/2023

19.37

Added to best ideas list in Deal Digest May 5, 2023

Teck Resources

TECK/B CN

05/05/2023

57.99

We assign low probability to a firm deal at the current stage given Teck’s and Canada’s opposition.

Please note that every week Chain Bridge publishes a list of their top ideas (Deal Digest).  As noted in the table above, companies are added or removed to that list to communicate conviction level.